Geopolitics

Israel and Turkey lack experience in managing conflict between the two states, as they are essentially allies and politically close countries. Their military and intelligence cooperation remains active and influential, having played a role in supplying Azerbaijan with weapons, which enabled it to secure victory in the recent Artsakh/Karabakh war. Additionally, intelligence cooperation continues, particularly […]

In parallel with the large-scale offensive launched by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham on November 27, which concluded on December 8 with its forces entering the capital Damascus without significant resistance, leading to the collapse of the regime and the flight of former President Bashar al-Assad, pro-Turkish factions under the National Army initiated a military campaign dubbed […]

In the spring of 2015, Jaish al-Fatah, a military coalition between Jabhat al-Nusra and Harakat Ahrar al-Sham, took control of the entire Idlib province. In the summer of that year, they advanced south into the Al-Ghab Plain following the rapid retreat of the Syrian regime’s forces. Subsequent information confirmed that the objective of capturing Homs […]

After the Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, the Syrian people are experiencing an atmosphere of liberation from the regime that Hafez al-Assad established in 1970 and that his son continued. The military manifestations of the regime have faded, the security apparatus has disappeared, and prisons and detention centers have opened their doors, resulting in the […]

The Assad regime effectively collapsed 12 days after the start of “Deterrence of Aggression Operation,” after a bloody rule lasting nearly 14 years. Ultimately, the regime came to an official end when its leader fled without engaging in one last ‘honorable’ battle. However, the remnants of the regime—beyond the brutal prison scenes and family photo […]

Russia could not save former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad when opposition forces advanced towards the capital, Damascus. Ultimately, Moscow lost its most significant strategic investment outside the borders of the former Soviet Union, marking the furthest extent of Russia’s reach in the Mediterranean throughout its imperial history since Peter the Great ascended to the throne […]

Over the years, Iran has invested considerable blood and money to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and help him survive a civil war that threatened his rule. Iran has operated military bases, arms depots, and missile factories in Syria, using it as a conduit to arm its allies across the region, according to a report […]

There are many speculations outside the realms of politics and strategy regarding the recent offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria and the sudden collapse of the regime’s defenses and those of its allies. The naive perspective suggests that Moscow has grown weary of the regime and is punishing it until the crisis is resolved; […]

On November 27, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and other allied jihadist factions launched a large-scale military operation named “Deterring Aggression.” During this operation, they managed to capture the city of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, along with dozens of towns and villages in the Aleppo and Idlib governorates. They seized large quantities of weapons and equipment from […]

With four years in the White House from 2017 to 2021, Donald Trump can arguably be seen as one of the most committed U.S. presidents to his campaign promises. During his campaign, he stated that the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran was “the worst deal ever signed in history,” and he fulfilled this promise by […]

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched extensive combing and search operations named “Permanent Security” from November 7 to 13, targeting areas in the southern and northern countryside of al-Hol and its camp. This operation coincided with precise and surprise raids on several homes and hideouts used by ISIS sleeper cells, forming part of the SDF’s […]

As Republican President-elect Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term as President of the United States, Ankara is receiving mixed signals regarding the nature of its relationship with Washington. On one hand, Trump’s first term was generally positive for Ankara, as it managed to seize new territory in northern Syria in 2019, despite facing […]

In the recent U.S. presidential election, Kamala Harris became the fourth vice president to lose in a contest held at the end of their presidents’ terms. The previous instances include Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, and Al Gore in 2000, with George H.W. Bush in 1988 being the only exception. These four […]

Four months after Ruhollah Khomeini came to power on February 11, 1979, two delegations from the global organization of the Muslim Brotherhood arrived in Iran. According to oral accounts from Syrian opposition circles at the time, the group offered to pledge allegiance to Khomeini as the caliph of Muslims in exchange for his declaration that […]

The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on 16 October has opened the door to intensifying diplomatic efforts to end the ongoing tragedy in Gaza through a political settlement that guarantees security for both Palestinians and Israelis while restoring calm to northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to face […]

The Ukrainian war in 2022 revealed a Sino-Russian alliance confronting a NATO-Japan-South Korea-Australia coalition. Ukraine was used as a battleground for this confrontation, and many still believe that Russian President Putin’s visit to Beijing three weeks before the war was meant to reassure the Chinese regarding their backing prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine […]

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, following his usual practice of seizing opportunities to convert developments into political gains that consolidate his power, is attempting to exploit the wars in Gaza and southern Lebanon by depicting them as a threat to Turkey’s very existence. This strategy serves to obscure the significant economic and social problems that […]

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has a tried-and-true strategy for dealing with the Turks regarding the Syrian file. It is enough for him to trigger Turkey’s pathological fears regarding the Kurds and declare the dangers of the secession of the Autonomous Administration and the creation of a Kurdish entity, which causes Ankara to flinch and […]

Wars escalate gradually, often with pre-war tensions remaining invisible. In the 1956 Suez War, for instance, the escalation spanned twenty months, beginning on February 28, 1955, with an Israeli raid on Gaza that resulted in the deaths of forty Egyptian soldiers. From that day forward, Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser contemplated turning eastward, away from […]

Years ago, Turkish officials made statements regarding the management of the Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia. In 2015, Turkey’s aggression towards Arab regimes, primarily through Muslim Brotherhood militias and Salafi-jihadist organizations, peaked, deepening the rift between Turkey and Egypt following the ousting of the late President Mohamed Morsi and the end of the Muslim Brotherhood’s […]

Iran’s purportedly ‘reformist’ President Masoud Pezeshkian inherited a multitude of internal and external challenges shortly after succeeding his late predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi. Additionally, he faced numerous border issues with neighboring countries. The water crisis caused by Turkish dams on the Aras River continues to trouble Tehran. Security concerns with the Republic of Azerbaijan, the strong […]

Eastern Germany, formerly known as the German Democratic Republic (GDR) before German reunification in 1990, comprises five states. In the post-unification political lexicon of Germany, these states are referred to as the “new states”: Brandenburg (2.5 million inhabitants), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (1.6 million inhabitants), Saxony (4 million inhabitants), Saxony-Anhalt (2.2 million inhabitants), and Thuringia (2.1 million inhabitants). […]

The war between Hamas and Israel on October 7, 2023, established a new security environment for the entire region; it is likely to shift the association ‘east of the Euphrates’ in Syria from the war against ISIS to the region’s de facto transformation into part of a wider  international coalition environment led by Washington. The […]

At the beginning of his presidency, President Joe Biden seemed poised to initiate major troop withdrawals after the last withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in 2021. Shortly thereafter, he adjusted the nature of U.S. military presence in Iraq, limiting it to an advisory role. Despite this, Biden has maintained the number of U.S. troops […]

What a re-elected President Donald Trump will do if he wins is well known. But what if Kamala Harris wins? It is easy to assume that Harris will continue the foreign policy of the Joe Biden administration, and this is not an incorrect assumption. Preventing Russia from winning the war in Ukraine will remain a […]

Where does ‘security’ end and ‘occupation’ begin? Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein and his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan signed the initial letters of a memorandum of understanding for military and security cooperation and counterterrorism on August 15th, 2024. This marks a continuation of the security agreements signed in Baghdad on April 22nd, during a visit […]

Several days after Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran, speculation arose regarding the nature and timing of Iran’s expected retaliation against Israel. Among the anticipated responses was the targeting of US bases and assets in Iraq and Syria, which was realized through a missile attack carried out by Iranian militias near the Conoco gas field, where […]

The ISIS terrorist organization continues to expand in the Syrian Badiyah Desert region, adopting the method of rapid surprise strikes that leave as many casualties as possible, whether military or civilian. The group uses a strategy of intimidation and terror to disrupt the ranks of its opponents and demonstrate the strong presence of an organization […]

Following the declaration of the municipal election results on March 31, 2024, Zekeriya Yapıcıoğlu, the head of the Free Cause Party, known by their Turkish abbreviation of “HÜDA PAR” (Hür Dava Partisi) which can be translated as “Party of God” delivered a statement acknowledging that his party’s performance in the municipal election fell short of […]

According to the latest Pentagon’s Lead Inspector General Quarterly Report to Congress for the period of April 1 through June 30, 2024, published on August 1, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) “were further stretched by the tensions with Arab tribal fighters” in Deir ez-Zor. The U.S.-led military Coalition against ISIS also stated that while there […]