Israel at a Crossroads: Declare Victory or Continue War

The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on 16 October has opened the door to intensifying diplomatic efforts to end the ongoing tragedy in Gaza through a political settlement that guarantees security for both Palestinians and Israelis while restoring calm to northern Israel and southern Lebanon.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to face significant pressure from his Western allies, as he has achieved most of his objectives. The remaining issue—the return of the hostages—can potentially be addressed peacefully, according to hints from U.S. President Joe Biden. Biden views Sinwar’s killing as an opportunity to regain control of peace settlement efforts and to satisfy his small leftist base and Arab voters in the United States.

According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, Sinwar’s assassination presents Israel with a chance to declare victory and bring an end to the war in the Gaza Strip.

For now, Netanyahu is keeping his options open. In a televised speech late on Thursday 16 October, he stated that “the war is not over,” signaling that he may not rest on his laurels. However, his speech also indicated that he might shift Israel’s focus from eliminating what remains of Hamas to securing the return of the 101 Israeli hostages still held in Gaza.

Netanyahu is already under pressure from the United States to treat Sinwar’s elimination as a pivotal moment and to revive stalled efforts for a ceasefire that could lead to the release of the hostages—an option shared by Israeli military and intelligence agencies.

The manner in which Israel chooses to act following Sinwar’s killing could determine the fate of the broader conflict in the Middle East, the hostages in Gaza, and the already strained relations between Israel, Netanyahu, and the international community.

The newspaper suggests that Israel faces two options:

1- Seize the Victory

Sinwar’s killing is Israel’s most significant victory in a year of fighting in Gaza. Israel has eliminated nearly all of Hamas’s senior leaders in the region, with the exception of Sinwar’s brother, Mohammed, who oversees the group’s daily military operations and could potentially become its new leader. However, many of the group’s fighters remain alive, having regrouped and recruited new members in various regions of Gaza.

For months, the Israeli military and security establishment has maintained that the complete elimination of Hamas is unrealistic and that a ceasefire is the only viable option to save the surviving hostages. Throughout this year, Sinwar has resisted a ceasefire on terms acceptable to Israel, according to Israeli and U.S. officials. The movement’s political leadership abroad is considered more pragmatic regarding such conditions than Sinwar— as noted by the Wall Street Journal—and is more susceptible to pressure from Qatar and Egypt, which, alongside the U.S., have been trying to mediate a deal to end the conflict throughout the year.
Senior U.S. officials have expressed the view that Sinwar’s death creates an opportunity to secure the release of hostages and conclude the war. Biden remarked, “There is now an opportunity for the next day in Gaza without Hamas in power and for a political settlement that offers a better future for both Israelis and Palestinians.”

Vice President Kamala Harris stated during a campaign rally in Wisconsin, “This moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza.” U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters, “We believe this is a renewed opportunity that we want to seize.”
Tamir Hayman, the former chief of Israeli military intelligence and the current executive director of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, views this victory as an opportunity for Israel to reduce its multi-front war.
However, many supporters of Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition strongly oppose any ceasefire agreement that would allow Hamas to survive. Hayman noted, “It requires some form of leadership and courage from Netanyahu. He will face criticism from his base.”

2-Continue War

Over the past year, Netanyahu has demonstrated a willingness to challenge the Biden administration—despite Israel’s reliance on U.S. military support—and to withstand pressure from the Israeli security establishment. The conflict in Gaza has allowed Netanyahu to redefine himself as a leader determined to defeat Israel’s enemies, rather than the prime minister under whom Israel experienced its worst security disaster.

Opinion polls indicate that he would likely lose an election if held today, but he is gradually regaining support among right-wing voters in Israel, partly due to a recent series of Israeli military strikes against Hezbollah.
On Thursday 17 October, Netanyahu stated that Sinwar’s death justified his earlier decision to invade Gaza to the southern district of Rafah, despite U.S. objections. This is where the Hamas leader was killed on 16 October.
“Now it is clear to everyone, in Israel and around the world, why we insisted on not ending the war,” he said. “Why we insisted, against all pressure, on entering Rafah, the Hamas stronghold where Sinwar was hiding.”

Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser under Netanyahu and a fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security in Washington, remarked that while Sinwar’s death is a significant symbolic event, it does not mean Israel is in a position to end the war at this moment. Rather, it demonstrates that Israel’s strategy of maintaining military pressure throughout the Gaza Strip is proving effective.

Amidror stated that Hamas remains strong enough to attack any alternative government in Gaza. “We must continue to undermine its military capabilities to render Hamas incapable of launching attacks, not only as a threat to Israel but also to anyone who might replace it,” he noted.

He pointed out that Israel took four years to suppress the second intifada in Jenin, a city in the occupied West Bank, and predicted at least another year of fighting in Gaza.
The killing of several Hamas leaders may complicate efforts to find anyone with the authority to negotiate and uphold an agreement; this is an issue Israel also faces with Hezbollah following the assassination of most of its senior leaders.
With the Israel Defense Forces achieving tactical victories against Hamas and Hezbollah and preparing to strike Iran, the pressing question now is whether Netanyahu intends to halt the campaign.