Yahya al-Sinwar’s Karbala: Dreaming of Israel’s Demise on Horse-Drawn Carriages

By Hussain Jummo

Yahya al-Sinwar was arrested by Israel in 1988, and it is said that upon his release from prison, incredulous, he asked, “Why haven’t you liberated Palestine yet?” During interrogations, the Israelis recognized him and were astonished by his boldness in confessing and expressing his thoughts and past. He was sentenced to four life terms after being convicted of killing four Palestinians accused of collaborating with the occupation, spending twenty-two years in various Israeli prisons. He was arrested at the age of 27 and released when he was 50 in 2011 as part of a swap deal for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. In prison, Sinwar also wrote a novel, which has rarely received attention. Journalist Amira Huwaidi provided an analysis of the circumstances and content of Sinwar’s novel, “Thorns and Cloves,” publishing a lengthy review in Al-Furats magazine.

Sinwar began a new life in prison that was no less daring and ambitious than his life outside. He learned Hebrew to the extent that he could translate certain books into Arabic despite enduring long periods of solitary confinement as punishment. He then decided to embark on a new adventure and began writing his first novel, completing it after 15 years in prison. With the help of dozens of prisoners who worked like an ant colony, as he described it, Sinwar managed to smuggle the novel out of prison in parts, after copying it away from the eyes of the prison administration. This effort demonstrated that the strict conditions within prisons did not prevent Palestinian prisoners from inventing various ways to smuggle out what they wished. The novel highlighted Sinwar’s centrality and significance within both the Palestinian prisoner community and the Hamas movement for decades. It was published in 2004.

“Thorns and Cloves” tells the story of a Palestinian family (in fact, Sinwar’s own family) living in the al-Shati refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip, after their grandfather was displaced there from the village of Fallujah in 1948. Through the voice of Ahmed, the youngest grandson, the novel explores the lives of grandchildren born and raised in Gaza’s refugee camps following the 1967 war, after their father and uncle disappeared by joining different factions. The struggling mother looks after the children alone under extremely harsh conditions, set against the backdrop of the political events that unfolded over 37 years, shaping the children’s orientations: the eldest son joined Fatah—as was typical for that generation—while his younger siblings, including Sinwar, grew up in the late 1970s amidst the rise of the Islamist movement, which they soon joined, followed by the Palestinian Intifada.

The novelist and the researcher

Sinwar spent 22 years in prison, using that time optimally for someone who envisioned a project he termed “The Great Project,” according to documents related to Hamas that were seized by Israel during its incursions into Gaza. Israel sent some of these documents to a few American newspapers, including the New York Times, which highlighted several notable aspects.

During his two decades in Israeli prisons, Sinwar studied the country and attempted to identify its weaknesses before emerging to assemble a powerful movement dedicated to its overthrow. This was detailed in a report by Rory Jones in the Wall Street Journal, which shed light on the deep roots of October 7 in Sinwar’s character.

He dedicated his time in prison to understanding Israeli society; he learned Hebrew, followed Israeli affairs, and read books on Jewish history and the Zionist movement.

Sinwar built all his fantasies and dreams as someone who believed he would spend his entire life in prison. Suddenly, he was released in 2011 in a prisoner swap deal in which Israel freed more than a thousand Palestinian prisoners in exchange for one Israeli soldier. He emerged burdened with dreams of Israel’s demise through a final Armageddon battle.

Sinwar once remarked that what Israel considers its strength is, in fact, a weakness that can be exploited—specifically, the status of soldiers in Israeli society. This was the crux of October 7. One Israeli soldier was exchanged for a thousand Palestinian prisoners in 2011, highlighting a dire analogy. Netanyahu is not a leftist prioritizing saving lives in the present at the expense of the future. He abandoned the prisoners, and Sinwar lost his most powerful weapon early on when Netanyahu refused to yield to pressure from the “prisoner community” or allow a leftist government to emerge—one that would view the release of hostages as a victory. That never transpired.

Yahya al-Sinwar spent nearly 22 years in Israeli prisons. He believed he emerged as an expert on how to eliminate the State of Israel once and for all.

Internal Hamas documents published by the Israeli military a few weeks ago revealed how Sinwar thought outside the confines of the conflict with Israel. He sought to shorten the timeline. Several idealistic advocates have promoted the theory of Israel’s gradual and spontaneous demise due to the Palestinian demographic factor. Arab literature is filled with such assertions, claiming Israel’s downfall is inevitable over time. However, Sinwar did not trust in time; he wanted to expedite this demise through what he referred to as his great Karbala battle.

A battle on horse-drawn carriages

Sinwar envisioned a major attack on Israel from three simultaneous fronts: Palestine, Lebanon, and Iran. This vision is based on documents seized by the Israeli army in Gaza and published by U.S. media, dating between 2019 and 2021. In a letter to Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Quds Force, Sinwar wrote: “Together, we will uproot this monstrous entity and transform the face of the region.” This was his dream project.

Sinwar formulated his plan and presented it to his allies. According to the outlines leaked by Israel, the plan called for simultaneous attacks targeting airports and other critical infrastructure, seizing the Israeli legislature in Jerusalem, and destroying a series of towers in Tel Aviv near the Israeli Ministry of Defense. Sinwar’s plans also proposed using horses and carts to transport Hamas militants across Israel, featuring slides with images of two horses and a chariot alongside a depiction of an Egyptian pharaoh riding in a chariot with a bow and arrow.

The version of the attack that occurred on October 7, 2023, was a modest rendition of Sinwar’s dream battle. Even the horse-drawn chariots of the Pharaohs had no place in the bloody assault by Hamas militants on Israeli settlements and bases in the Gaza envelope. Instead of chariots, they used humble motorcycles, but they also developed drones to transport militants into the settlements and military bases, as well as to attack a music festival. The idea of Hamas militants having the ability to “fly” was one of Sinwar’s innovations. He must have entertained these fantasies many times, envisioning how Qassam operatives would resemble the ‘Ababil birds’, swooping down on Israel and leaving it as a mere shadow of itself.

As the events of October 7 unfolded, it became evident that Hamas’s allies (Iran and Hezbollah) did not agree to participate directly in the attack. Consequently, the original plan lost much of its imaginative elements and remained merely theoretical, compelling Sinwar to launch the assault with Hamas’s own capabilities.

He also possessed a more rational, academic side. Ehud Yaari, an Israeli journalist who interviewed him in prison, noted that Sinwar had handwritten hundreds of pages of his thoughts and conclusions while studying Jewish and Zionist history, showcasing a curiosity about his adversary that astounded the Israelis who interacted with him at the time.

In 2004, he appeared to be suffering from neurological issues, according to the Wall Street Journal, speaking in an unbalanced manner and struggling to walk. Doctors examined him, discovered an abscess in his brain, and subsequently hospitalized him for surgery. Following a successful operation, Sinwar returned to prison, expressing gratitude to the doctors for saving his life. He also spent hours conversing with one of his jailers.

The Arab Spring period was a disaster for the Palestinian cause, rendering it neglected and sidelined even in Arab news bulletins.

During Khaled Meshaal’s leadership of the political bureau, the movement became embroiled in the Turkish-backed political Islamist axis opposing the Syrian regime, participating in training Syrian opposition militants in tunnel-digging on the outskirts of Damascus. Sinwar’s ascent necessitated Hamas’s shift from the ‘Sunni’ Brotherhood line to the ‘Palestinian Islamist’ Brotherhood line. Sinwar emerged as the leader of Hamas in Gaza, while Ismail Haniyeh was elevated to head of the political bureau, sidelining Meshaal. With them, Hamas fully resumed its previous collaboration with the ‘axis of resistance.’ Sinwar’s rise was contingent on restoring full relations with Tehran and moving past the movement’s involvement in the Brotherhood-Turkish efforts during the Arab Spring.

Let it be a new Karbala

In the months leading up to October 7, anti-Israeli allies discussed strategies for attacking their common enemy. However, while Iran’s allies engaged in attacks against Israel and U.S. forces in the Middle East since the onset of the Gaza war, Tehran largely refrained from a full-scale escalation, a decision that reportedly frustrated Sinwar.

Once the war commenced, Sinwar realized that the success of the movement depended on his survival and superiority over Israel, necessitating a permanent ceasefire that would leave Hamas intact.

For a while, Sinwar believed he might emerge victorious.

According to testimonies reported by the Wall Street Journal, his messages to colleagues within the movement and ceasefire mediators became increasingly confident, even grandiose, as noted by Arab mediators. During negotiations for a temporary cessation of hostilities earlier in the war, he urged the movement’s political leadership outside Gaza to refrain from making compromises and to advocate for a permanent conclusion to the conflict.

Sinwar was convinced that the high number of civilian casualties in Gaza would generate global pressure on Israel to halt the war, as indicated in the letters he sent to mediators. However, even as the United States continued to urge both sides to agree to a ceasefire, Israel proposed conditions likely leading to Hamas’ downfall. Sinwar maintained his minimalist stance of ensuring the movement’s survival while delaying “Israel’s demise.”

In a letter to Hezbollah before his death, Sinwar expressed gratitude to the group for its support and referenced the Battle of Karbala, where Hussein ibn Ali, the grandson of Prophet Muhammad, was killed in a confrontation against the forces of Bani Umayyah.

“We must move forward on the same path we began, or let it be a new Karbala,” Sinwar wrote to Hezbollah.

What was it? It was a new Karbala without horse-drawn carriages.

Author

  • Hussain Jummo is a Kurdish writer from Syria. He has written several political and social studies research reports on the Kurdish issue. He is the author of two books, 'Armed Hospices: The Political History of the Kurdish Naqshbandi Order', and 'Al-Anbar: From the Grassland Wars to the Silk Road'.

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