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Analysis

The End of Syria as We Knew It

Syria as we knew it is over. This notion did not arise solely from the fall of the regime; in fact, it predates it. When I wrote in an article several years ago that Syria as we knew it no longer exists, both as a society and a state, and that the use of these […]

Ankara and the “New Syria” Project: Control, Turkification, and…

The Turkish government is racing against time to capitalize on the change that occurred in Syria on December 8, 2024, marked by the fall of the Syrian regime and the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions to power in Damascus. With the diminishing influence of Iran and Russia, and the evident divisions […]

Syria: The Land of Grand Stories that Must End

The conflict in and over Syria appears to continually necessitate the invocation or fabrication of grand Stories. In this article, we will borrow the term “Story” from Yuval Noah Harari, who has skillfully employed it to discuss the significance of Stories in a global context. The world has always needed stories to be told—such as […]

The Kurds, Turks, and Arabs in the ‘Nation-State’… A Second…

A number of unoccupied border cities and towns in northern Syria are shrouded in darkness and fear as they face heavy bombardment, assaults on essential service infrastructure, and attempts of occupation. In Afrin, a brutal and organized genocide is taking place, standing as a testament to the triumph of hatred under the watchful eyes of […]

Israel and Turkey: Competing for Influence in the Middle East

Israel and Turkey lack experience in managing conflict between the two states, as they are essentially allies and politically close countries. Their military and intelligence cooperation remains active and influential, having played a role in supplying Azerbaijan with weapons, which enabled it to secure victory in the recent Artsakh/Karabakh war. Additionally, intelligence cooperation continues, particularly […]

Ankara’s Agenda in the New Syria: Occupation, Turkification, and Kurdish…

In parallel with the large-scale offensive launched by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham on November 27, which concluded on December 8 with its forces entering the capital Damascus without significant resistance, leading to the collapse of the regime and the flight of former President Bashar al-Assad, pro-Turkish factions under the National Army initiated a military campaign dubbed […]

The New Syria in the American Orbit

In the spring of 2015, Jaish al-Fatah, a military coalition between Jabhat al-Nusra and Harakat Ahrar al-Sham, took control of the entire Idlib province. In the summer of that year, they advanced south into the Al-Ghab Plain following the rapid retreat of the Syrian regime’s forces. Subsequent information confirmed that the objective of capturing Homs […]

Bahçeli’s Illusions Surrounding Aleppo Fortress

On 12 November 1918, the first group of French troops entered Constantinople to occupy the city under the Mudros Armistice, which had been signed just days earlier on 30 October. French General Després entered the city on horseback. Did the Turks have a problem with the occupation? This is a significant and complex question, but […]

The End of Assad’s Era: Envisioning a New Syria

After the Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, the Syrian people are experiencing an atmosphere of liberation from the regime that Hafez al-Assad established in 1970 and that his son continued. The military manifestations of the regime have faded, the security apparatus has disappeared, and prisons and detention centers have opened their doors, resulting in the […]

The Uncertain Future of Syrian Kurds

The Assad regime effectively collapsed 12 days after the start of “Deterrence of Aggression Operation,” after a bloody rule lasting nearly 14 years. Ultimately, the regime came to an official end when its leader fled without engaging in one last ‘honorable’ battle. However, the remnants of the regime—beyond the brutal prison scenes and family photo […]

Russia Wastes Its Most Important Imperial Achievement in 350 Years

Russia could not save former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad when opposition forces advanced towards the capital, Damascus. Ultimately, Moscow lost its most significant strategic investment outside the borders of the former Soviet Union, marking the furthest extent of Russia’s reach in the Mediterranean throughout its imperial history since Peter the Great ascended to the throne […]

NYT: Al-Julani talks with Tehran, the Revolutionary Guard Accepts Defeat

Over the years, Iran has invested considerable blood and money to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and help him survive a civil war that threatened his rule. Iran has operated military bases, arms depots, and missile factories in Syria, using it as a conduit to arm its allies across the region, according to a report […]

Russia Faces a “Saigon Moment” in Syria… and the World?

There are many speculations outside the realms of politics and strategy regarding the recent offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria and the sudden collapse of the regime’s defenses and those of its allies. The naive perspective suggests that Moscow has grown weary of the regime and is punishing it until the crisis is resolved; […]

Aleppo in the Hands of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham: Will It Join Turkey’s…

On November 27, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and other allied jihadist factions launched a large-scale military operation named “Deterring Aggression.” During this operation, they managed to capture the city of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, along with dozens of towns and villages in the Aleppo and Idlib governorates. They seized large quantities of weapons and equipment from […]

Syria’s Liquid Landscape: The Aftermath of Aleppo’s Fall

The map of the armed conflict remains liquid as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham advances beyond the borders of Aleppo to the outskirts of Hama province. While Syrian regime forces struggle to repel the advancing troops following an unprecedented series of withdrawals, leaving behind heavy weapons and hundreds of thousands of residents, pro-Turkish National Army factions have […]

Germany: Approaches to Political and Economic Crises

Disagreements among the three parties forming Germany’s “traffic light” coalition government led to its collapse. Chancellor Olaf Scholz officially announced that he would request a vote of confidence from parliament on December 16 to authorize the current interim government to run the country until the early parliamentary elections scheduled for February 23, 2025. The “traffic […]

Who is wary of Trump’s return?

With four years in the White House from 2017 to 2021, Donald Trump can arguably be seen as one of the most committed U.S. presidents to his campaign promises. During his campaign, he stated that the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran was “the worst deal ever signed in history,” and he fulfilled this promise by […]

‘Permanent Security’ Operation: Destroying ISIS Both Militarily and…

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched extensive combing and search operations named “Permanent Security” from November 7 to 13, targeting areas in the southern and northern countryside of al-Hol and its camp. This operation coincided with precise and surprise raids on several homes and hideouts used by ISIS sleeper cells, forming part of the SDF’s […]

Trump’s Cabinet Appointments Raise Concerns in Turkey

As Republican President-elect Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term as President of the United States, Ankara is receiving mixed signals regarding the nature of its relationship with Washington. On one hand, Trump’s first term was generally positive for Ankara, as it managed to seize new territory in northern Syria in 2019, despite facing […]

Trump II Returns to the White House

In the recent U.S. presidential election, Kamala Harris became the fourth vice president to lose in a contest held at the end of their presidents’ terms. The previous instances include Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, and Al Gore in 2000, with George H.W. Bush in 1988 being the only exception. These four […]

Is the Republican Party Becoming the Representative of Workers and Farmers?

In the new American, and perhaps European world, it is not far-fetched to imagine that right-wing parties and traditional conservatives will become the leaders of the working class and workers. The middle class has been politically disintegrating for decades, and this process has accelerated in recent years. This phenomenon is observed globally, not just in […]

States should raise human rights crisis in Azerbaijan during COP29

The UN Climate Change Conference COP29 kicks off in Baku on Monday, 11 November. Delegations, business leaders from around the world will be visiting Baku, a city where those living in it are suffering the effects of climate crisis and the impacts of oil exploration. As Amnesty International underlined in a report published on 8 […]

Is Trump’s Presidency the End of American Leadership?

In his first term, Donald Trump coined the slogan “America First” and “Make America Great Again.” This slogan maintained its appeal during the election campaign that ultimately culminated in Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris. During Trump’s first term (2016-2020), this slogan was linked to radical implementations, resulting in significant upheaval within the largest institution in […]

Understanding Iran’s ‘Surplus of Power’

Four months after Ruhollah Khomeini came to power on February 11, 1979, two delegations from the global organization of the Muslim Brotherhood arrived in Iran. According to oral accounts from Syrian opposition circles at the time, the group offered to pledge allegiance to Khomeini as the caliph of Muslims in exchange for his declaration that […]

The Kurdish-Arab Consensus: A Pillar of Stability Amid Regional Turmoil

Amid the bloody conflicts ravaging the Middle East, particularly in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have emerged as a key player in the political and military landscape of Northern and Eastern Syria. Alongside the Arab tribes, the SDF represents a crucial pillar for stability in a region that constantly faces threats from extremist organizations […]

Turkey: The Scorched Earth Policy Does Not Create Solutions or Internal Cohesion

The Turkish state has begun launching comprehensive and targeted attacks on the infrastructure in Northern and Eastern Syria, destroying dozens of electricity and water stations, grain silos, hospitals, police headquarters, and civilian facilities belonging to the Autonomous Administration. In addition to causing infrastructural destruction, these attacks have resulted in the deaths and injuries of dozens […]

Mysteries in Syrian Political History

There are many unresolved mysteries in Syrian political history. Even what has been revealed in Douglas Little’s documents or in Ambassador Hare’s correspondence warrants further research or should be compared with documents that can be found elsewhere. History possesses complexities and layers akin to mines, with the surface offering little indication of what lies beneath. […]

Confusion in Ankara’s vision

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has yet to grasp the thread that would enable him to maintain the old regional order. Iran is no longer the same following the blows it and its proxies received before October 7, 2023. The war that has dismantled the external borders of the Iranian regime in Gaza, Lebanon, and […]

Yahya al-Sinwar’s Karbala: Dreaming of Israel’s Demise on Horse-Drawn Carriages

Yahya al-Sinwar was arrested by Israel in 1988, and it is said that upon his release from prison, incredulous, he asked, “Why haven’t you liberated Palestine yet?” During interrogations, the Israelis recognized him and were astonished by his boldness in confessing and expressing his thoughts and past. He was sentenced to four life terms after […]