Israel and Turkey: Competing for Influence in the Middle East

Israel and Turkey lack experience in managing conflict between the two states, as they are essentially allies and politically close countries. Their military and intelligence cooperation remains active and influential, having played a role in supplying Azerbaijan with weapons, which enabled it to secure victory in the recent Artsakh/Karabakh war. Additionally, intelligence cooperation continues, particularly regarding information related to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

However, managing their rivalry has become complicated due to the fall of the Syrian regime and the defeat of most members of the Iranian axis in the Middle East. Israel and Turkey, while protocol friends, have a “competitive rivalry” regarding Gaza, but they lack common allies in the region—Turkey’s allies are primarily enemies of Israel. Consequently, it is unlikely that the two sides will maintain their previous methods of managing rivalry and conflicts of interest.

Yaroslav Trofimov, the foreign affairs editor of the Wall Street Journal, published a detailed report titled “Israel vs. Turkey: The Intensifying Middle-East Power Struggle” He argues that Turkey and Israel are the main strategic beneficiaries of the collapse of the Syrian regime, an event that has curtailed the dramatic decline of Iranian influence in the region. These two American allies, whose relations had already soured since the war in Gaza, are now on a deeper collision course, both in Syria and beyond. Managing this rivalry is likely to become a priority for Donald Trump’s administration, further straining America’s network of alliances in Europe and the Middle East.

Günül Tol, director of the Turkey Program at the Middle East Institute, stated, “Turkish officials want the new Syria to be successful so that Turkey can assert control over it. They feel that the Israelis might spoil it for them.”

Certainly, the competitive animosity between Israel and Turkey cannot be compared to the long and bloody conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies. However, Israeli officials have expressed concerns that the new Sunni Islamist axis led by Turkey may become increasingly dangerous over time, particularly in light of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s public support for Israel’s adversaries.

With the establishment of the regime in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Turkey has emerged as the dominant power in Damascus. This situation places Erdoğan closer than ever to realizing his ambition for a sphere of influence that extends across former Ottoman territories, reaching as far as Libya and Somalia. This approach involves competing with Iran, which is currently the most vocal advocate for the Palestinian cause, and is likely to lead to another confrontation with Israel, which sees this as a significant threat.

Yuli Edelstein, chairman of the Israeli Parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, stated in an interview with the American newspaper that “relations with Turkey are definitely in a bad situation, but there is always the possibility of further deterioration. It’s not that we are threatening each other at this point, but it could develop into clashes in Syria, particularly with Turkish proxies.”

Erdoğan emphasized his vision of Turkey as the dominant power in the Middle East just two days after Assad’s fall, stating that “every event in our region, especially Syria, reminds us that the true Turkey transcends its geographical borders.”

According to the newspaper, except for Qatar, Washington’s other partners in the region—such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Jordan—harbor their own concerns about Turkey’s newfound influence. Officials in those countries fear that the revival of political Islam emanating from Damascus may undermine their national security.

Turkey, which became the first Muslim country to recognize Israel in 1949, still maintains an embassy in Tel Aviv, even though Erdoğan has criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, labeling him the “butcher of Gaza” after the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians at the hands of Israeli forces, and has imposed economic sanctions on Israel.

Eyal Zisser, head of the Department of Contemporary Middle Eastern History at Tel Aviv University, remarked, “There are still channels of communication between the two countries, and Turkey remains a U.S. ally, so the gap between them can be bridged.”

Turkey’s foreign and defense policies have long troubled successive U.S. administrations, particularly due to Erdoğan’s military and nuclear cooperation with Russia, as well as what U.S. officials described as Turkey’s covert assistance to ISIS in Iraq and Syria. “Turkey has long been a rogue state within the Western alliance,” stated Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank that supports Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan.

Recently, the Turkish Foreign Ministry and its Israeli counterpart exchanged accusations regarding each other’s policies in Syria. This sharp exchange marked a new level of deterioration in bilateral relations, according to Galia Linden-Strauss, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies. She noted, “Relations between Israel and Turkey are now at their lowest point in decades.”

Linden-Strauss observed that Ankara’s ambitions are growing as it “takes control of the northern regions,” raising the question of whether Turkey’s influence will extend further south, potentially positioning Ankara as the patron of the emerging regime.

In an assessment published by Fox News, analysts warned that “unintended” clashes with Israel could become inevitable as Turkey deepens its presence in Syria, according to Eitan Cohen Yanarochak of Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Centre.

Linden-Strauss added, “Turkey’s main interests are concentrated in northern Syria, while Israel focuses on the south. Israel and Turkey have managed to establish channels with Russia to avoid friction. Similar mechanisms will be needed here.”

The question is: Who will take on the role of Russia in regulating Turkish and Israeli interests in the ‘new Syria’?