Browsing Tag

Syria

The Alawite Catastrophe: The Ultimate Tragedy for Syrians

No term can adequately describe the situation in the coastal regions of Syria other than to classify it as a campaign of genocide against the Alawites. Regardless of the justifications for military actions in these areas, they represent, in legal, humanitarian, and political terms: a campaign of collective extermination arising from successive and ongoing massacres. […]

Decentralization and National Identity in Syria

In a country like Syria, decentralization and identity are often perceived more as threats than opportunities, and more as sources of division, disruption, weakness, and infiltration than as elements of cohesion, order, strength, and resilience. These perceptions are intrinsic to the emergence of the modern state in Syria and the region following the First World […]

National Dialogue Committee or Inquisition?

At the beginning of February, the Syrian people felt a glimmer of hope upon hearing that the Syrian transitional government intended to form a Syrian National Dialogue Committee as a fundamental step towards the democratization of Syria in the current context. This national dialogue is meant to serve as a gateway to redefining the state, […]

The New Syria Deepens the Crisis: A Centralized State and an Ideological Army

In his speech at the opening of the National Dialogue Conference in Damascus on February 25, 2025, Syria’s transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa focused on two topics that he views as major obstacles to the consolidation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) rule and its absorption of the Syrian state. Al-Sharaa asserted that Syria “cannot be divided” […]

The Syrian Interior After the Fall of Assad

The emergence of Hafez al-Assad’s dictatorship in 1970 was based on an international factor, namely the Soviet-American approval to remove a regime that rejected Resolution 242, which defined the contours and course of the Arab-Israeli conflict after the 1967 war. Additionally, there was a regional factor involving the new Egyptian president, Anwar Sadat, who proposed […]

Signals of Change in U.S. position on Iran

A senior European official informed a Syrian opposition group that the reason former U.S. President Barack Obama refrained from launching a major military strike against the Syrian regime following the chemical attack on Eastern Ghouta in August 2013 was due to Tehran’s threat to withdraw from negotiations over its nuclear program. In the summer of […]

Radical Transformation: Is Washington Seeking Stability or Change in the Middle…

The Middle East is teetering between simultaneous threats and opportunities that were not present when Donald Trump first took office eight years ago. From an American perspective, the most serious threats include Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and its active engagement in an alliance with China and Russia. The best opportunities have arisen from Israel’s […]

Identity as a Political Actor: From Nationalism to Religion

The Middle East is perhaps one of the most identity-preoccupied regions in the world, with various dimensions and manifestations, particularly religious or sectarian identities that are often intertwined. The presence and impact of identity vary among groups, influenced by differing circumstances, contexts, lived experiences, and socio-economic and political conditions. It is more accurate to discuss […]

War on the Eastern Euphrates: A Certain Miscalculation

The discourse surrounding the future of Syria is revealing voices calling for war in the northeastern part of the country. Beyond the frenzy and hatred that characterize these voices, it is fair to say that they lack any understanding of the dangers associated with the idea of war, which does not serve the interests of […]

Post-Assad Syria: Alliances, projects…. and Islam

Most Syrians were surprised by the geopolitical significance of their country when the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime led to the demise of Iran’s regional axis, a fate not shared by Tehran’s forces in Gaza and Lebanon. Additionally, this collapse restored Russia’s status as a regional power after it gained global power status following its […]

The “aggressive state” model, a recipe for destruction for a fractured society

The process of stabilizing Syria faces significant challenges from forces operating with conflicting and parallel agendas. On one hand, there is an effort to support the transitional administration led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), while on the other hand, HTS is being dragged into new battles that do not align with the interests of this […]

Syria: A Crisis in the foundation!

Syria has been plagued by “birth issues” or “state-building problems” since it formed as a state or proto-state in the modern sense following World War I (1914-1918). These problems emerge with every crisis the country experiences, whether large or small. It seems there is little possibility of overcoming them, as no one has attempted it […]

Hafez al-Assad: An Analysis of His Rule and Political Legacy

In Muhammad Haidar’s book “The Baath and the Great Apostasy” (1998 edition, publisher unspecified), we can read the following statement about the Baath Party Congress’s decision to remove Defense Minister Hafez al-Assad and Chief of Staff Mustafa Tlass from their positions: “I believe that General Salah Jadid was fully aware that the Defense Minister and […]

Syria ponders about foreign powers advice

Few Syrian voices have denounced the European advice offered by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and her French colleague Jean-Yves Le Drian to the Syrian interim government. In fact, the denunciation has taken on a tone of defiance, with phrases such as “we don’t need foreign interference” and “we can solve our own problems without […]

Is Saudi Presence in Syria a Qatari-Turkish Arrangement?

Saudi Arabia is taking the lead among Arab states in engaging with the transitional government in Damascus, an effort perceived as aimed at securing an early foothold in the Syrian capital and preventing Qatar and Turkey from dominating the landscape. In this context, The Wall Street Journal reports on the competition for influence in Syria, […]

The Turkish Syria vs. The New Syria

The active diplomatic efforts undertaken by the “caretaker” government suggest that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham has a clear program for shaping a new Syria after 54 years of rule by Bashar al-Assad and his father. The visits made by the ministers of foreign affairs and defense, as well as the head of intelligence, to Saudi Arabia […]

The End of Syria as We Knew It

Syria as we knew it is over. This notion did not arise solely from the fall of the regime; in fact, it predates it. When I wrote in an article several years ago that Syria as we knew it no longer exists, both as a society and a state, and that the use of these […]

Ankara and the “New Syria” Project: Control, Turkification, and…

The Turkish government is racing against time to capitalize on the change that occurred in Syria on December 8, 2024, marked by the fall of the Syrian regime and the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions to power in Damascus. With the diminishing influence of Iran and Russia, and the evident divisions […]

Syria: The Land of Grand Stories that Must End

The conflict in and over Syria appears to continually necessitate the invocation or fabrication of grand Stories. In this article, we will borrow the term “Story” from Yuval Noah Harari, who has skillfully employed it to discuss the significance of Stories in a global context. The world has always needed stories to be told—such as […]

The Kurds, Turks, and Arabs in the ‘Nation-State’… A Second…

A number of unoccupied border cities and towns in northern Syria are shrouded in darkness and fear as they face heavy bombardment, assaults on essential service infrastructure, and attempts of occupation. In Afrin, a brutal and organized genocide is taking place, standing as a testament to the triumph of hatred under the watchful eyes of […]

Israel and Turkey: Competing for Influence in the Middle East

Israel and Turkey lack experience in managing conflict between the two states, as they are essentially allies and politically close countries. Their military and intelligence cooperation remains active and influential, having played a role in supplying Azerbaijan with weapons, which enabled it to secure victory in the recent Artsakh/Karabakh war. Additionally, intelligence cooperation continues, particularly […]

The New Syria in the American Orbit

In the spring of 2015, Jaish al-Fatah, a military coalition between Jabhat al-Nusra and Harakat Ahrar al-Sham, took control of the entire Idlib province. In the summer of that year, they advanced south into the Al-Ghab Plain following the rapid retreat of the Syrian regime’s forces. Subsequent information confirmed that the objective of capturing Homs […]

The End of Assad’s Era: Envisioning a New Syria

After the Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, the Syrian people are experiencing an atmosphere of liberation from the regime that Hafez al-Assad established in 1970 and that his son continued. The military manifestations of the regime have faded, the security apparatus has disappeared, and prisons and detention centers have opened their doors, resulting in the […]

The Uncertain Future of Syrian Kurds

The Assad regime effectively collapsed 12 days after the start of “Deterrence of Aggression Operation,” after a bloody rule lasting nearly 14 years. Ultimately, the regime came to an official end when its leader fled without engaging in one last ‘honorable’ battle. However, the remnants of the regime—beyond the brutal prison scenes and family photo […]

Russia Wastes Its Most Important Imperial Achievement in 350 Years

Russia could not save former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad when opposition forces advanced towards the capital, Damascus. Ultimately, Moscow lost its most significant strategic investment outside the borders of the former Soviet Union, marking the furthest extent of Russia’s reach in the Mediterranean throughout its imperial history since Peter the Great ascended to the throne […]

NYT: Al-Julani talks with Tehran, the Revolutionary Guard Accepts Defeat

Over the years, Iran has invested considerable blood and money to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and help him survive a civil war that threatened his rule. Iran has operated military bases, arms depots, and missile factories in Syria, using it as a conduit to arm its allies across the region, according to a report […]

Russia Faces a “Saigon Moment” in Syria… and the World?

There are many speculations outside the realms of politics and strategy regarding the recent offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria and the sudden collapse of the regime’s defenses and those of its allies. The naive perspective suggests that Moscow has grown weary of the regime and is punishing it until the crisis is resolved; […]

Aleppo in the Hands of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham: Will It Join Turkey’s…

On November 27, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and other allied jihadist factions launched a large-scale military operation named “Deterring Aggression.” During this operation, they managed to capture the city of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, along with dozens of towns and villages in the Aleppo and Idlib governorates. They seized large quantities of weapons and equipment from […]

Syria’s Liquid Landscape: The Aftermath of Aleppo’s Fall

The map of the armed conflict remains liquid as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham advances beyond the borders of Aleppo to the outskirts of Hama province. While Syrian regime forces struggle to repel the advancing troops following an unprecedented series of withdrawals, leaving behind heavy weapons and hundreds of thousands of residents, pro-Turkish National Army factions have […]

Mysteries in Syrian Political History

There are many unresolved mysteries in Syrian political history. Even what has been revealed in Douglas Little’s documents or in Ambassador Hare’s correspondence warrants further research or should be compared with documents that can be found elsewhere. History possesses complexities and layers akin to mines, with the surface offering little indication of what lies beneath. […]