NYT: Al-Julani talks with Tehran, the Revolutionary Guard Accepts Defeat
By The Kurdish Centre for Studies
Over the years, Iran has invested considerable blood and money to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and help him survive a civil war that threatened his rule. Iran has operated military bases, arms depots, and missile factories in Syria, using it as a conduit to arm its allies across the region, according to a report by The New York Times.
The report, authored by Farnaz Fassihi, the newspaper’s bureau chief at the United Nations, indicates that as Assad requires assistance to fend off the rapid advance of opposition forces that have seized control of Damascus, Iran is starting to retreat. Since Friday, Iran has begun evacuating its military leaders and personnel, as well as some diplomatic staff, according to Iranian and regional officials. This represents a significant shift, as Iran appears to be abandoning not only Assad, its closest Arab ally, but also everything it has built and fought to preserve in Syria over the past 40 years, which serves as its main foothold in the Arab world.
Even before the fall of Damascus and the regime’s retreat, Iran was unable to mount a defense for the Assad government after a devastating year of regional wars that commenced with the October 7 attack by Hamas, an Iranian ally, on Israel.
The collapse of Iran’s partnership with Syria would undoubtedly reshape the balance of power in the Middle East. The “axis of resistance” formed by Iran and its allies in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen would be weakened, while Israel and its allies would gain strength.
Hassan Shamshadi, an expert on Iran’s proxy armed groups who has worked for years as a documentary filmmaker on Syria’s battlefields, stated in an interview from Tehran: “For Iran, Syria has been the backbone of our regional presence. Everything Iran sent to the region passed through Syria. Now it has become exceedingly difficult to maintain these channels.”
Initially, the Iranian government was shocked by the speed at which the rebels in Syria were gaining territory and the Syrian army was abandoning its bases, according to three Iranian officials—two of whom were members of the elite Revolutionary Guards, and two prominent Iranian analysts close to the government.
By midweek, the mood had shifted to one of complete panic, as the rebels captured city after city, from Aleppo to Hama to Deir Ezzor and Daraa.
In public, Iranian officials pledged to remain fully committed to supporting Assad. However, privately, as rebels took control of increasingly extensive territories once ruled by Iran and its proxy militias, officials began to question whether events were beyond their ability to influence.
By the week’s end, several senior officials expressed on social media that Assad’s ouster seemed inevitable and that Iran’s setback was substantial.
Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former vice president, wrote on X (formerly Twitter): “The potential fall of the Syrian government into the hands of Islamic extremists will be one of the most significant events in the history of the Middle East. The resistance in the region will be left unsupported, and Israel will become the dominant power.”
Although Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who traveled to Damascus, Baghdad, and Doha for consultations regarding Syria, was initially defiant, he later stated that Assad’s fate would be left “to the will of God.”
An internal memo from a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that was seen by The New York Times described the situation in Syria as “unbelievable and bizarre.” The memo indicated that “Iran has accepted the fall of Assad and has lost the will to resist.”
State television in Iran has shifted its rhetoric from labeling Sunni rebels as “terrorists” to referring to them as “armed groups,” reporting that they have treated Shia minorities well so far.
Soheil Karimi, a former fighter in Syria who has become a political analyst, stated on a news program on state television that Araqchi’s pledges to support the Syrian government were nothing more than false hope.
Citing reports from his contacts in Syria, he said: “The reality on the ground is not as he claims. Our men are not on the battlefield in Syria right now. They have not been allowed.”
A video posted Friday on IRGC-affiliated social media accounts showed a Shia shrine near Damascus that was nearly empty. The speaker said: “These may be the last images you see of the shrine; everyone has left Syria, and all the Iranians have been evacuated.” He then began to cry.
The three Iranian officials stated that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the main group advancing in Syria, sent a special diplomatic message to Iran this week. The group promised it would protect Shia religious sites and Shia minorities, requesting that Iran refrain from fighting its forces. In return, Iran asked the group to allow safe passage for its forces out of Syria and to protect Shia shrines.
Iran sent commanders and troops to Syria in 2012 at the onset of the anti-government uprising, helping to defeat both opponents of the Assad regime and the Islamic State (IS).
It has utilized its ongoing presence in Syria to maintain strong arms supply lines to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian groups, leveraging two shipping ports and airports for this purpose. More recently, Iran has partnered with smuggling gangs and members of Bedouin tribes in Jordan to transfer weapons from Syria to the West Bank, according to The New York Times.
However, the dynamics of the Middle East have changed dramatically over the past year.
Iran has suffered significant setbacks following Israeli attacks on Iranian assets and bases in Syria, including its embassy compound in Damascus. Israeli strikes reportedly killed at least two dozen Iranian forces, some of whom were high-ranking commanders responsible for regional operations, according to Iranian media.
Additionally, Iran’s main ally, Hezbollah, has been severely impacted after an intense period of fighting with Israel in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Russia, another ally of Syria, is focused on its war in Ukraine. More importantly, the Syrian army has shown a reluctance to engage in combat.
Another concern for Iran is Israel’s threat to attack any mobilization of Iranian forces in Syria. Last week, two flights from a private Iranian airline en route to Damascus were diverted after warnings from Israel that it would shoot them down if they entered Syrian airspace, according to Iranian and Israeli officials. Israel stated that the flights were carrying weapons.
“Syria and Lebanon are like our left and right wings. They are clipped, and it is hard to imagine one without the other,” an Iranian official remarked.
Moreover, Iran’s dilemma extends beyond Syria. Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in California and an expert on Iranian military affairs, believes that Iran is in a difficult position, especially with Donald Trump potentially returning to the presidency and expected to implement a policy of “maximum pressure on Iran.”
Ostovar commented: “Losing ground in Syria will make Iran appear increasingly vulnerable to its enemies in Tel Aviv and Washington. If Iran intensifies its efforts in Syria, it risks committing forces and materials to a losing battle. Conversely, if Iran retreats, it will appear weak and concede defeat.”
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