Aleppo in the Hands of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham: Will It Join Turkey’s “Eastern Reforms” Genocide Plan?

On November 27, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and other allied jihadist factions launched a large-scale military operation named “Deterring Aggression.” During this operation, they managed to capture the city of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, along with dozens of towns and villages in the Aleppo and Idlib governorates. They seized large quantities of weapons and equipment from the Syrian army’s depots and military bases after the withdrawal of regular troops from these locations. Concurrently, as the jihadists advanced easily into the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib and entered central Aleppo, where they took control of state institutions (including Aleppo International Airport), jihadist groups began to penetrate the countryside of Hama, capturing several towns and moving toward the city center, which remains under the control of Syrian government forces.

The developments continue, and fighting is ongoing on the ground as jihadist factions advance in the rural areas of the three governorates: Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama, consolidating their control over neighborhoods in the city of Aleppo and security, military, and governmental departments, from which the Syrian army and civil elements of the Damascus government have withdrawn. Following the rapid advance of jihadist factions in cities and towns (controlling more than 740 km in Aleppo and Idlib) and the evident collapse of the Syrian defenses, Syrian and Russian warplanes began conducting airstrikes on jihadist positions. Meanwhile, Syrian official sources reported that the regime in Damascus sent military reinforcements to prevent the fall of Hama city, announcing that the Syrian army would soon shift to counteroffensive operations to reclaim territories from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and its allied jihadist factions. Forces from the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units arrived in Syria and began engaging in clashes with jihadist factions in southeastern Aleppo. Regarding human losses, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported more than 515 deaths, the majority of whom were combatants from both sides of the conflict.

Regional Developments

Analyses about the reasons for the group’s large-scale military operation vary. Some analysts link the operation to regional developments that have unfolded since October 7, 2023, amidst the war between Israel and both Hamas and Hezbollah, along with Iran and its affiliated militias in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. This conflict has dealt significant blows to the Iranian axis, including targeted assassinations of its leaders, the destruction of its military capabilities, and attacks within Iran itself, resulting in a substantial weakening of the Iranian and Hezbollah presence in Syria and a decline in the morale of militias loyal to Tehran due to Israeli strikes on this axis.

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the allied jihadist factions interpreted the strikes by Israel and the United States against the Iranian axis in the region and the consequent weakening of Iran and Hezbollah’s military presence in Syria as a clear vulnerability to exploit for launching extensive and surprise attacks aimed at gaining ground in the “de-escalation” zones that have been agreed upon by Russia, Turkey, and Iran over the past decade. In a statement issued at the launch of the operation, the group stated that the aim of the attack was to deliver a “preemptive strike against the Syrian regime forces” due to the “ongoing attacks by the regime and Russia” on areas subject to the Turkish-Russian understanding, particularly manifested after the Moscow-Ankara ceasefire agreement reached in March 2020. The group claims that the regime continued to bombard areas under its control with drones and aircraft, while Russian airstrikes in Idlib’s countryside, governed by the group and its allies, showed no signs of abating.

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the affiliated factions believe that the Syrian regime has become besieged and weakened due to various factors, including the blows dealt to its ally Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah, which have affected their military presence. This is in addition to deteriorating economic conditions and the suffering of broad segments of society, including soldiers and members of law enforcement and security forces, compounded by pervasive corruption within state institutions and the absence of accountability and justice. All these factors have contributed to a decline in the morale of soldiers on the front lines and a sense of helplessness due to Israeli strikes inside and outside Syria targeting their Iranian ally and its supporters.

Moreover, the group has interpreted the developments in the Russia-Ukraine war as an indication of Russia’s preoccupation with the complexities of that conflict and the gradual diminishing of the importance of the Syrian file for Moscow, which is now prioritizing other developments, primarily at the front in Ukraine, amidst Western and NATO supply of advanced and sophisticated weaponry to the Ukrainian army that could hinder Russian military advances and threaten a counteroffensive from Kyiv that might reach deep into Russia itself, resulting in significant casualties among Russian soldiers. Conditions in Ukraine and the deterioration of relations between Russia and the West (accompanied by nuclear war threats) seem to represent an opportunity for a broad attack by the group and its allies, without fear of strong and decisive retaliation from the Russian military apparatus stationed in Syria.

In linking the operation to other political developments concerning the Syrian file, it is evident that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the allied factions understood the overall political landscape regarding Arab initiatives aimed at rehabilitating the Syrian regime and reconciling with it, which they wanted to thwart by escalating the conflict in Syria. The group aimed to keep the Syrian regime isolated from its Arab surroundings by amplifying military activity in Syria and executing preemptive military strikes to undermine all Arab political efforts aimed at rapprochement with Damascus while simultaneously obstructing any Turkish-Syrian reconciliation that might be quietly pursued, or making such efforts more difficult and distant.

The Turkish Role

Analysts have linked the jihadists’ large-scale military operation to a Turkish agenda, thus denying Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s independence and initiative, citing its diminished capacity and that of its allied factions to initiate such a large-scale operation without ongoing Turkish support, and without continuous military, logistical, media, and political coverage from Ankara. A connection has been made between this operation and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s new strategy aimed at arranging and strengthening his position and seizing more territory in Syria for the benefit of his allies before the formal assumption of power by U.S. President Donald Trump. This follows months of Erdoğan’s earnest attempts to reconcile with the Syrian regime, during which he sought out Russian President Vladimir Putin as a mediator for a summit meeting and reconciliation between the two countries, enabling Erdoğan to repatriate millions of Syrian refugees and legitimize his military and administrative presence in Syria through formal agreements with the regime in Damascus, i.e., the Syrian state as recognized internationally. Erdoğan aimed to secure the official endorsement from Damascus for Turkish presence/occupation in Syria through a formal agreement similar to the 1998 Adana agreement, but broader and clearer.

Following the Syrian regime’s refusal to engage in discussions for rapprochement with Erdoğan unless Turkey withdrew from the Syrian territories it occupied during 2016, 2018, and 2019, and in light of the ongoing issue of Syrian refugees in Turkey—an issue that the opposition (specifically the Republican People’s Party) has exploited politically against Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party—Erdoğan activated the roles of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the associated local and foreign jihadist factions (notably the Turkistan Islamic Party, Guardians of Religion, and groups of Uzbeks and Tajiks), pushing them to launch a large-scale operation targeting the Syrian army forces and the Iranian militias allied with them.

Here, the Turkish role can be observed through the magnitude and preparation for the operation, which lasted for months, including the involvement of tens of thousands of trained jihadists, logistical preparations, and the types of weapons and equipment used. Additionally, Ankara has exploited its allies within what is termed the “Syrian National Army” to secure routes and tighten the siege on Syrian regime forces in Aleppo and its countryside. Sources indicate the presence of Turkish officers overseeing military operations and intelligence information reaching the attacking jihadists sourced from Turkish intelligence monitoring the progress of military operations. Turkish media and Arabic-language media funded by the Ankara government continue to promote the operation as “progress for the revolutionaries,” while concealing the identity and symbols of the participating jihadist factions, and prohibiting the publication of footage showing the identities, languages, and symbols of foreign jihadists, in order to present the operation as a “liberation” and part of the “Syrian revolution” against the regime in Damascus.

The slogan of the military operation launched by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, “Deterring Aggression,” carries political connotations claiming that it is a self-defense operation against attacks and violations from the opposing side, namely the Syrian regime and its Russian ally, rather than a wide-ranging offensive that had been planned for months. This title is reminiscent of titles from Turkish military operations launched to occupy parts of Syria, such as “Olive Branch” in 2018, which concluded with the occupation of Afrin and the ethnic cleansing of its Kurdish population, and “Peace Spring” in 2019, during which Ankara and its allied factions occupied Ras al-Ayn and Tal Abyad, along with extensive displacement of the Kurdish population. It seems that the three titles originate from the same source in Turkish military terminology.

The War on the Kurds and Autonomous Administration

Amidst speculation regarding Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s policy and stance toward the Kurdish community in the Ashrafieh and Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhoods of Aleppo following the group’s takeover, and regarding the position towards self-administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Turkey instructed the factions loyal to it, integrated within what is called the “Syrian National Army,” to swiftly mobilize and launch extensive attacks supported by airstrikes from Turkish warplanes targeting the Shehba region, where thousands of displaced individuals from Afrin and Aleppo reside. They also launched an attack on Tal Rifaat and cut off the roads between these areas and Aleppo, where approximately a quarter of a million Kurdish residents live in the Ashrafieh and Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhoods.

The Turkish-aligned factions initiated a new military operation against the Kurdish people, named “Dawn of Freedom,” following advances and the capture of positions held by the Syrian regime, seizing Qayres Airport, the city of al-Safira, the thermal power station east of Aleppo, and the 111th regiment, as well as moving towards Tal Rifaat and Menagh military airport, effectively cutting off the main roads linking Aleppo city to the centers of Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, and Al-Hasakah provinces. The Turkish-led offensive against the Kurds appears aimed at merging Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s operation with Turkey’s foundational policies toward the Kurds, specifically the East Reform Plans, or East Anatolian Reform, that dates back to 1925.

Rami Abdul Rahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, warned of the dangers posed by Turkish-affiliated factions committing massacres and acts of collective extermination against the Kurdish community, indicating that approximately 200,000 Kurdish civilians in northern Aleppo province are besieged by Turkey-backed factions, and their lives are at risk due to the potential for acts of revenge and targeting based on identity by certain factions loyal to Turkey. Abdul Rahman called on Turkish President Erdoğan through media channels to intervene with factions loyal to his government to prevent potential massacres and identity-based killings against Kurdish civilians.

While Turkey-affiliated factions attempt to exploit the rapid advances of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham following the collapse of Syrian army units, they have engaged in military operations with Turkish air and artillery support against the Syrian Democratic Forces and Forces for the Liberation of Afrin, blocking roads, arresting Kurdish citizens, and subjecting them to humiliation while documenting these incidents for dissemination on social media. Simultaneously, the Democratic Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria declared a state of general mobilization and is channeling all efforts and resources to confront the aggression led by Turkey-affiliated factions aiming to occupy more territories in Syria and incorporate them into Turkey while achieving the “Milli Pact.” The Autonomous Administration urged everyone to support the Syrian Democratic Forces and called upon the international community to intervene to halt Turkey’s aggression and prevent a major humanitarian catastrophe. Additionally, the Syrian Democratic Forces released a statement pledging to defend all communities against the armed groups instigated by the Turkish state, aimed at countering the genocidal plans targeting civilians in the Shehba area and Aleppo. They called upon Kurdish, Arab, Syriac, Assyrian, Armenian, and Circassian youth to join the ranks of popular resistance and take up arms to defend their dignity, lives, and lands against the Turkish occupation and its mercenaries. In parallel with the Syrian Democratic Forces’ statement, Ferhad Shami, director of the media center for the Syrian Democratic Forces, indicated that their forces did not accept withdrawal from the Ashrafieh and Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhoods and that their orientation is toward mobilization and declaring revolutionary popular resistance against the terrorist groups.

The Turkish state seeks to exploit Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s operation, the collapse of the Syrian army’s defenses, and the rapid incursion of the group into the Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama provinces to launch attacks against the Autonomous Administration and give its affiliated factions free rein to besiege and persecute Kurdish civilians, destroy their properties, and engage in looting. Turkish warplanes and artillery continue to bomb positions of the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Forces for the Liberation of Afrin, anticipating a ground invasion by Turkey-affiliated factions. Turkey aims to take advantage of the global focus on Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s capture of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, to initiate a comprehensive attack on Tal Rifaat, Shehba, and northern and eastern areas of Aleppo, terrorizing and displacing Kurdish civilians from their homes and confiscating their properties. This would replicate prior actions that occurred in Afrin, Ras al-Ayn, and Tal Abyad, where Turkey and its allied factions displaced hundreds of thousands of Kurdish residents after seizing their homes in a large-scale ethnic cleansing and mass expulsion operation. Currently, the focus is on the hundreds of thousands of Kurdish civilians besieged in Shehba and Aleppo, with Turkey-affiliated factions blocking their escape to self-administration regions. Not only do they treat these individuals as hostages, but they also humiliate, kill, and arrest anyone suspected of being connected to the military or civilian institutions of self-administration. Despite the brutality and oppression being enforced by Turkey’s affiliated factions, which has resulted in the deaths of Kurdish civilians (including the elderly and sick), a route has been opened between the Shehba region and self-administration areas, facilitating the movement of displaced Kurds from Afrin’s camps in Shehba to the city of Tabqa in Raqqa canton, where local self-administration institutions are mobilizing to host tens of thousands of newcomers and provide them with essential living needs.

The factions continue to besiege both Ashrafieh and Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhoods in Aleppo, preventing entry and exit. Meanwhile, Mazlum Abdi, the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, publicly stated on his account on the “X” platform that their forces were under heavy assault from multiple directions amidst the collapse and withdrawal of the Syrian army and its allies. Consequently, they acted to open a humanitarian corridor between the eastern neighborhoods of Aleppo and Tal Rifaat to protect civilians from potential massacres, stating that the armed groups supported by the Turkish occupation have blocked the humanitarian corridor. They continue to communicate with active players in Syria to secure the exit of civilians from Tal Rifaat and Shehba towards self-administration areas, while the fighters defending the Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo persist in their defense against attackers aiming to enter these areas.

The Turkish state believes that the current circumstances are suitable for continuing its plans to occupy more Syrian territories and to proceed with the goal of displacing the Kurdish population from their historic areas in Aleppo governorate, thus successfully implementing its project of ethnic cleansing and demographic change. Additionally, its objective includes undermining the self-administration project, which it views as the biggest threat, aiming to dismantle it and solidify its project, represented in regions controlled and managed by its affiliated factions, where there exists a homogenous ethnic, religious, and sectarian environment conducive to assimilation efforts and administrative and economic integration with Turkey, paving the way for their annexation. All of this is part of its broader project termed the “Milli Pact,” which aims to strategically carve out vast areas from Syria and Iraq and annex them to the Turkish state after dismantling and destroying those regions through activating the role of jihadists and their associated militias. However, before this can happen, it is essential that the Kurdish presence in these areas is eradicated (following campaigns of extermination, occupation, and demographic shifts between 2014 and 2024 in Sinjar, Kobani, Afrin, Ras al-Ayn, Tal Abyad, and Aleppo). Thus, Turkey aims to eliminate Kurdish presence and establish a popular base that would accept annexation under the “Milli Pact,” escaping from the turmoil of militia control and the absence of a centralized state.