The End of Assad’s Era: Envisioning a New Syria
By Tariq Hemo
After the Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, the Syrian people are experiencing an atmosphere of liberation from the regime that Hafez al-Assad established in 1970 and that his son continued. The military manifestations of the regime have faded, the security apparatus has disappeared, and prisons and detention centers have opened their doors, resulting in the release of hundreds of prisoners who had been jailed for many years for merely expressing their opinion, being suspected of opposing the regime, or possibly participating in protests calling for reform and change.
Additionally, thousands of Syrians who were displaced from their homeland, as well as those fleeing from the intelligence services, have begun to return to Syria. At the border crossings with Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon, thousands of Syrians are streaming back to their homes on a daily basis. Syrians worldwide can now visit their country without fear of persecution by the Bashar al-Assad regime. The regime’s apparatus has diminished, and its legacy has become a thing of the past.
Analysts and observers continue to explore the reasons behind the rapid and sudden collapse of the Syrian regime, the circumstances that led to Assad’s departure, the abandonment of resistance by the regular army forces to the advance of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allied armed groups, and the refusal of elite units within the regime’s army—such as the Fourth Division, the Republican Guard, and the Tiger Forces—to engage in confrontation. Instead, they opted for a ‘random departure,’ with each individual heading toward their village or city.
There is one common denominator among all explanations for what happened: the state of weakness experienced by Iranian and Russian allies and the withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters from confrontation zones in Syria after being struck by Israeli military actions in Lebanon. The repercussions of the Palestinian Hamas operation on October 7, 2023, against Israel struck the Syrian regime itself after the Israeli state targeted Iran, leading to the devastation of Hezbollah and its armed factions in Syria and Iraq. Some tentacles of the Iranian octopus began to sever while others weakened; the Syrian regime found itself exposed to its adversaries, in its weakest position, and vulnerable to collapse.
After the entry of HTS into Damascus and Assad’s departure, discussions arose amidst the euphoria surrounding this rapid development and new reality regarding Syria’s political future and the nature of the coming regime. Questions emerged regarding whether this regime would fulfill the 2011 demands of the Syrian people for freedom, pluralism, the rule of law, and rights. Could a legitimate national government emerge as an alternative to Assad that accepts freedoms, upholds the rule of law, and recognizes all components of the Syrian identity?
HTS announced a transitional government to manage state affairs without the participation of other forces. Ahmad al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Jolani) spoke of an Islamic shura system as the basis for state management. There were no references to elections or the parliamentary system familiar in democracies. While al-Sharaa called for the preservation of state institutions and administrations and advocated against oppression and revenge, stating he was even willing to change the name of his organization to facilitate integration and pave the way for the transitional process, acts of retribution began to appear in various regions. Videos emerged of killings and torture based on identity against individuals whom it was claimed were affiliated with the previous regime’s security apparatus.
Experts studying jihadist movements are now examining the transformation of HTS and its leader, raising numerous questions centered on whether what is happening represents a genuine and essential change in which the organization evolves into a “responsible state,” or if it is merely a pragmatic adaptation to current circumstances. Alternatively, is it a radical change that follows intellectual revisions built on Islamic legitimacy and historical foundations, akin to the revisions made by Egyptian jihadist groups that abandoned armed struggle against the regime and the state?
It is still too early to speculate on the true nature of HTS’s transformation after its entry into Damascus and the establishment of a caretaker government, characterized by al-Sharaa assigning Mohammad al-Bashir, a former Shaykh in HTS, to prepare a team for the interim transitional government. It appears that conflicting views regarding the transformations and manifestations of HTS will continue for many months before the truth emerges and the outlines of its project become clear.
Regionally, alongside the significant changes occurring in Syria, two major developments can be observed: the rapid Israeli intervention, which appears preemptive due to its swift action to destroy the arsenal of the Syrian army. Israel conducted approximately 400 airstrikes targeting over 300 military sites, including military airports, weapon and ammunition depots, missile bases, anti-tank positions, ports, warships, and scientific research centers. Furthermore, Israeli forces advanced into Syrian territory, occupying Mount Hermon and the buffer zone that extends into the Syrian side east of the ceasefire line in the Golan Heights, as well as several villages in Quneitra province.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that his government would not allow the emergence of a hostile force and that the 1974 ceasefire agreement was nullified with the withdrawal of Syrian troops and their abandonment of weapons. Israel destroyed the heavy weapons of the Syrian army and positioned itself to ensure early warning of any attacks or violations from the Syrian side, thus enhancing its military capability to counter any infiltration attempts or surprise assaults, similar to what occurred on October 7 in the Gaza perimeter.
The second development is the assault by pro-Turkish factions on the areas governed by the Autonomous Administration, with the backing and support of the Turkish army. This assault resulted in the occupation of Shahba, Tal Rifaat, and Manbij, accompanied by violations and crimes against Kurdish civilians perpetrated by the pro-Ankara militants. Ankara seized the opportunity presented by HTS’s entrance into Damascus, Assad’s retreat, and the Syrian army’s abandonment of resistance as a valuable chance to expand its occupation and influence on the Syrian landscape through its allied militants, coupled with its primary goal of undermining the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and dismantling the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria.
In the past two weeks, horrific violations have been committed by pro-Ankara factions against residents and displaced persons, with hundreds killed, detained, and terrorized, particularly among the Kurdish community. Turkey has chosen to expand its territory, thereby gaining stronger leverage for negotiations with the new authority in Damascus. Ankara believes that al-Jolani and HTS must now comply with its demands to combat the Autonomous Administration and the SDF and refuse any dialogue with them. This was a task Ankara had hoped the former Syrian regime would fulfill had Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s efforts to meet with Bashar al-Assad succeeded. Erdoğan’s attempts appeared frantic enough that he even enlisted Russian President Vladimir Putin to facilitate the “reconciliation” process.
The Turkish government continues to provide military support, oversight, and intelligence to the factions it backs in launching attacks on SDF positions and attempting to capture more cities and locations on the eastern bank of the Euphrates River. General Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the SDF, called on Turkey to cease its attacks and engage in dialogue with the Autonomous Administration, instead of relying on military action. Meanwhile, the United States has begun pressuring Ankara to halt its assaults and those of its allied factions, reaffirming its continued support for the SDF as a key partner in the fight against terrorism. Washington also sent General Michael Eric Corella, commander of the US Central Command, to meet with General Mazloum Abdi and discuss the recent developments.
The region of North and East Syria has expressed its readiness for dialogue with the new government in Damascus. The SDF withdrew from western Deir Ezzor province, including the cities of Deir Ezzor, Al-Bukamal, and Al-Mayadeen, areas they had entered after the withdrawal of regular army soldiers and Iranian militias, fearing that ISIS might exploit the vacuum to expand there. Currently, there is a state of expectation regarding developments in Damascus.
While the Autonomous Administration is attempting to initiate channels for dialogue and communication with all political forces and demonstrates sufficient flexibility to conduct an internal Syrian dialogue aimed at ending the war and the ongoing division and conflict, and establishing a national agreement outlining the features of the future Syria (the Autonomous Administration has decided to adopt a new flag—the independence flag—and raise it in all its institutions), the Turkish state and its allied factions continue committing further acts of aggression aimed at occupying and displacing the Kurdish component. The pro-Turkish propaganda machine—comprising a broad range of media outlets, opposition figures, and social media activists—continues to spread lies, allegations, and fake news targeting the Autonomous Administration project, the SDF, and the Kurdish people as a whole.
Turkey is attempting to instigate an Arab-Kurdish conflict and entrench a state of division and chaos. Amid the discussions emerging from Damascus regarding dialogue and the establishment of a state, and the formation of HTS’s government independently of the Coalition, Turkey perceives that matters are beginning to slip beyond its control. As a result, it believes that the alternative lies in further occupation and annexation of Syrian territories, placing Syrians before a fait accompli, disseminating hate speech directed by Turkish intelligence services, and converting the civil war and chaos into a reality of life and fate for Syrians who dream of stability, rule of law, and institutional governance.
Comments are closed.