Trump’s Cabinet Appointments Raise Concerns in Turkey

As Republican President-elect Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term as President of the United States, Ankara is receiving mixed signals regarding the nature of its relationship with Washington. On one hand, Trump’s first term was generally positive for Ankara, as it managed to seize new territory in northern Syria in 2019, despite facing sanctions. On the other hand, Trump’s appointments raise concerns for Turkey, given that some of the individuals are known for their hardline stance in pressuring Ankara and advocating for the interests of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

An Attempt to Reset Relations

The Turkish president has sought to reset strained relations with the United States by inviting the president-elect to visit Turkey, stating that Trump spoke very favorably about Turkey during a phone call.

Trump’s election victory this week was welcomed in Turkey, with some officials expressing cautious optimism about the prospects of new U.S. economic policies. Erdoğan told reporters on the plane returning from the European summit in Budapest that he hopes Trump will accept the invitation. An official from the AKP indicated that Ankara expects the Trump administration to be more flexible and understanding of Turkey’s needs.

Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden did not visit Turkey during his term. Additionally, Erdoğan’s visit to the White House earlier this year did not materialize without any explanation, highlighting the frosty relations. Trump and Erdoğan have met face-to-face about nine times in the past, in stark contrast to only two brief meetings with Biden.

During Biden’s presidency, communication was largely limited to foreign ministers, which represents a departure from the ‘strong relationship‘ that Erdoğan and Trump enjoyed.

A Misleading Relationship

The relationship between Trump and Erdoğan has been characterized as both good and misleading. It is considered good due to their history of frequent conversations, described as a form of understanding – such as phone calls and meetings – which provides an opportunity for the Turkish president to present his policies on issues he cares about and attempt to influence Trump.

According to Erdoğan, he hopes that his invitation to Trump will enhance cooperation between Turkey and the United States, leading to a relationship that is “different from Trump’s previous term,” during which disagreements over various issues prompted Washington to impose punitive tariffs that negatively impacted the Turkish economy. Erdoğan added that Ankara’s cooperation with the Trump White House could also help resolve regional crises.

However, despite their closer personal relationship during Trump’s presidency from 2017 to 2021, tensions between Washington and Ankara increased due to disagreements over Washington’s partnership with the Syrian Democratic Forces and Ankara’s relations with Moscow.

No one can forget when Trump threatened to “destroy the Turkish economy” during his first term – a stark reminder of his unpredictability. His threat came in a letter sent to Erdoğan in October 2019, as the Turkish armed forces were preparing for an incursion into northern Syria.

Trump wrote: “Let’s make a good deal! You don’t want to be responsible for slaughtering thousands of people, and I don’t want to be responsible for destroying the Turkish economy – and I will.”

In July 2018, Trump caused a sharp decline in the Turkish lira when he warned of major sanctions on Turkey unless it released Andrew Brunson, an American pastor on trial for terrorism charges related to networks involved in the July 2016 coup attempt against Erdoğan. Brunson was soon released.

However, during a phone call in 2019, Trump gave Erdoğan the green light to launch a military offensive in northern Syria, allowing Ankara to seize territory in Serekaniye/Ras al-Ayn and Tal Abyad. This move aimed to influence the alliance between the SDF and U.S. forces. When Washington imposed sanctions on Turkey for purchasing Russian S-400 air defense systems, Trump chose the lightest sanctions package available, which was interpreted as a rapprochement between Erdoğan and Trump. However, at the same time, Trump imposed sanctions on Turkish ministers over the imprisonment of an American pastor in 2018.

Describing the relationship between Trump and Erdoğan as challenging, leading many politicians in the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and senior bureaucrats in relevant Turkish ministries to argue that there has always been a misleading portrayal of Turkey’s relationship with Washington under the Trump administration. This can be partly attributed to Trump’s unpredictable nature and his tendency to make promises about deals that do not yield any progress or follow-through.

During Trump’s tenure, Turkish ministries consistently struggled to collaborate effectively with their U.S. counterparts due to frequent changes in U.S. officials. It remains uncertain whether this situation will change, and conversely, there could be greater volatility in the White House following Trump’s potential victory.

Unresolved Issues between Trump and Turkey

Turkish-American relations are unlikely to undergo a radical change. Problems between Ankara and Washington have been entrenched for the past decade. This is primarily due to divergent national security priorities and interests, along with a number of unresolved issues that continue to represent crises between the U.S. administration and Turkey. Key issues include the fate of the Russian S-400 missile defense system in Turkey, U.S. support for the SDF, and Turkish relations with Greece, Iran, and Russia. The missile issue remains the most systemic problem in Turkish-American relations.

It is not yet clear what actions Trump will take during his presidency, especially since he removed Turkey from the F-35 program – of which Turkey was a co-producer – due to its purchase of the S-400 system from Russia. There is no indication that he would alter this policy. In any case, pressure and sanctions on Turkey aimed at phasing out these missile systems are likely to persist.

Ankara is currently under sanctions imposed by the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Recently, there has been a new U.S. proposal to transfer the S-400 missile defense system to the U.S.-controlled sector of the Incirlik base near Adana. It is unclear whether Ankara will accept this offer, especially since Moscow quickly reminded Ankara that the purchase of the Russian missile defense system comes with an end-user certificate that prohibits dealings with third parties without Russia’s approval.

Five years ago, Trump allowed Erdoğan to proceed with an invasion of northern Syria, which shocked Washington and drew bipartisan condemnation of the U.S. president’s decision. Amnesty International accused the Turkish forces that invaded the area of exhibiting a “disgraceful disregard for civilian life,” committing serious violations and war crimes, including summary killings and unlawful attacks that resulted in civilian casualties. Trump’s approval of the invasion was one of the many ways he assisted the Turkish president while in office.

Additionally, Trump intervened with the Justice Department to support Halkbank, a Turkish bank accused of helping Iran evade U.S. sanctions. Under personal pressure from Erdoğan, Trump also urged his advisers, including officials in the Justice Department, to dismiss a case against the bank brought by prosecutors in the Southern District of New York, according to accounts from former Trump administration officials.

Trump’s approval of the invasion of Syria and his response to the ensuing criticism received limited attention during the 2024 campaign. However, it underscores many of Trump’s vulnerabilities in managing U.S. foreign policy. Despite the pressures he faced, it is uncertain whether Trump will behave differently regarding Syria. Yet, with his statements about the necessity of withdrawing U.S. military forces from various regions around the world, his approach may not fundamentally differ from that of his first term.

Turkey’s real dilemma is its need to maintain a good relationship with Russia despite being a NATO member. The same holds true for its relationship with Iran, as Turkey, Iran, and Russia compete in this geographical region. Additionally, Turkey aims to preserve its relations with Ukraine while NATO provides assistance to Ukraine.

In recent months, Turkey has sought to assume a larger regional role in the ongoing conflicts. Erdogan has long pursued a role in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, given his close ties with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his controversial relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This relationship has drawn criticism and suspicion from some of Turkey’s NATO allies. However, the U.S. appears to need a channel to communicate with Russia regarding the prisoner swap in Ankara, facilitated by Turkish intelligence.

The same applies to Hamas. For instance, Ibrahim Kalin, the head of Turkey’s intelligence service, and members of the group’s political bureau have discussed a hostage exchange with Israel in Ankara.

Regarding the tensions with Greece, it seems that Turkey’s relations with Greece and Egypt concerning stability in the Eastern Mediterranean are unlikely to change in the near future.

With Trump back in the White House, a more volatile and opportunistic Turkish-American relationship is likely to re-emerge, reflecting the ups and downs of Trump’s first presidency. Erdoğan may believe that Trump will take his calls and listen to his views, as he did during his previous term, but he may not necessarily act on what he wants.