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The End of Assad’s Era: Envisioning a New Syria
After the Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, the Syrian people are experiencing an atmosphere of liberation from the regime that Hafez al-Assad established in 1970 and that his son continued. The military manifestations of the regime have faded, the security apparatus has disappeared, and prisons and detention centers have opened their doors, resulting in the […]
The Uncertain Future of Syrian Kurds
The Assad regime effectively collapsed 12 days after the start of “Deterrence of Aggression Operation,” after a bloody rule lasting nearly 14 years. Ultimately, the regime came to an official end when its leader fled without engaging in one last ‘honorable’ battle. However, the remnants of the regime—beyond the brutal prison scenes and family photo […]
Russia Wastes Its Most Important Imperial Achievement in 350 Years
Russia could not save former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad when opposition forces advanced towards the capital, Damascus. Ultimately, Moscow lost its most significant strategic investment outside the borders of the former Soviet Union, marking the furthest extent of Russia’s reach in the Mediterranean throughout its imperial history since Peter the Great ascended to the throne […]
NYT: Al-Julani talks with Tehran, the Revolutionary Guard Accepts Defeat
Over the years, Iran has invested considerable blood and money to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and help him survive a civil war that threatened his rule. Iran has operated military bases, arms depots, and missile factories in Syria, using it as a conduit to arm its allies across the region, according to a report […]
Russia Faces a “Saigon Moment” in Syria… and the World?
There are many speculations outside the realms of politics and strategy regarding the recent offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria and the sudden collapse of the regime’s defenses and those of its allies. The naive perspective suggests that Moscow has grown weary of the regime and is punishing it until the crisis is resolved; […]
Aleppo in the Hands of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham: Will It Join Turkey’s…
On November 27, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and other allied jihadist factions launched a large-scale military operation named “Deterring Aggression.” During this operation, they managed to capture the city of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, along with dozens of towns and villages in the Aleppo and Idlib governorates. They seized large quantities of weapons and equipment from […]
Syria’s Liquid Landscape: The Aftermath of Aleppo’s Fall
The map of the armed conflict remains liquid as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham advances beyond the borders of Aleppo to the outskirts of Hama province. While Syrian regime forces struggle to repel the advancing troops following an unprecedented series of withdrawals, leaving behind heavy weapons and hundreds of thousands of residents, pro-Turkish National Army factions have […]
Germany: Approaches to Political and Economic Crises
Disagreements among the three parties forming Germany’s “traffic light” coalition government led to its collapse. Chancellor Olaf Scholz officially announced that he would request a vote of confidence from parliament on December 16 to authorize the current interim government to run the country until the early parliamentary elections scheduled for February 23, 2025. The “traffic […]
Who is wary of Trump’s return?
With four years in the White House from 2017 to 2021, Donald Trump can arguably be seen as one of the most committed U.S. presidents to his campaign promises. During his campaign, he stated that the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran was “the worst deal ever signed in history,” and he fulfilled this promise by […]
‘Permanent Security’ Operation: Destroying ISIS Both Militarily and…
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched extensive combing and search operations named “Permanent Security” from November 7 to 13, targeting areas in the southern and northern countryside of al-Hol and its camp. This operation coincided with precise and surprise raids on several homes and hideouts used by ISIS sleeper cells, forming part of the SDF’s […]
Trump’s Cabinet Appointments Raise Concerns in Turkey
As Republican President-elect Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term as President of the United States, Ankara is receiving mixed signals regarding the nature of its relationship with Washington. On one hand, Trump’s first term was generally positive for Ankara, as it managed to seize new territory in northern Syria in 2019, despite facing […]
Trump II Returns to the White House
In the recent U.S. presidential election, Kamala Harris became the fourth vice president to lose in a contest held at the end of their presidents’ terms. The previous instances include Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, and Al Gore in 2000, with George H.W. Bush in 1988 being the only exception. These four […]
Is the Republican Party Becoming the Representative of Workers and Farmers?
In the new American, and perhaps European world, it is not far-fetched to imagine that right-wing parties and traditional conservatives will become the leaders of the working class and workers. The middle class has been politically disintegrating for decades, and this process has accelerated in recent years. This phenomenon is observed globally, not just in […]
States should raise human rights crisis in Azerbaijan during COP29
The UN Climate Change Conference COP29 kicks off in Baku on Monday, 11 November. Delegations, business leaders from around the world will be visiting Baku, a city where those living in it are suffering the effects of climate crisis and the impacts of oil exploration. As Amnesty International underlined in a report published on 8 […]
Is Trump’s Presidency the End of American Leadership?
In his first term, Donald Trump coined the slogan “America First” and “Make America Great Again.” This slogan maintained its appeal during the election campaign that ultimately culminated in Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris. During Trump’s first term (2016-2020), this slogan was linked to radical implementations, resulting in significant upheaval within the largest institution in […]
Understanding Iran’s ‘Surplus of Power’
Four months after Ruhollah Khomeini came to power on February 11, 1979, two delegations from the global organization of the Muslim Brotherhood arrived in Iran. According to oral accounts from Syrian opposition circles at the time, the group offered to pledge allegiance to Khomeini as the caliph of Muslims in exchange for his declaration that […]
The Kurdish-Arab Consensus: A Pillar of Stability Amid Regional Turmoil
Amid the bloody conflicts ravaging the Middle East, particularly in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have emerged as a key player in the political and military landscape of Northern and Eastern Syria. Alongside the Arab tribes, the SDF represents a crucial pillar for stability in a region that constantly faces threats from extremist organizations […]
Turkey: The Scorched Earth Policy Does Not Create Solutions or Internal Cohesion
The Turkish state has begun launching comprehensive and targeted attacks on the infrastructure in Northern and Eastern Syria, destroying dozens of electricity and water stations, grain silos, hospitals, police headquarters, and civilian facilities belonging to the Autonomous Administration. In addition to causing infrastructural destruction, these attacks have resulted in the deaths and injuries of dozens […]
Mysteries in Syrian Political History
There are many unresolved mysteries in Syrian political history. Even what has been revealed in Douglas Little’s documents or in Ambassador Hare’s correspondence warrants further research or should be compared with documents that can be found elsewhere. History possesses complexities and layers akin to mines, with the surface offering little indication of what lies beneath. […]
Confusion in Ankara’s vision
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has yet to grasp the thread that would enable him to maintain the old regional order. Iran is no longer the same following the blows it and its proxies received before October 7, 2023. The war that has dismantled the external borders of the Iranian regime in Gaza, Lebanon, and […]
Israel at a Crossroads: Declare Victory or Continue War
The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on 16 October has opened the door to intensifying diplomatic efforts to end the ongoing tragedy in Gaza through a political settlement that guarantees security for both Palestinians and Israelis while restoring calm to northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to face […]
Yahya al-Sinwar’s Karbala: Dreaming of Israel’s Demise on Horse-Drawn Carriages
Yahya al-Sinwar was arrested by Israel in 1988, and it is said that upon his release from prison, incredulous, he asked, “Why haven’t you liberated Palestine yet?” During interrogations, the Israelis recognized him and were astonished by his boldness in confessing and expressing his thoughts and past. He was sentenced to four life terms after […]
A Perspective on the World After October 7
The Ukrainian war in 2022 revealed a Sino-Russian alliance confronting a NATO-Japan-South Korea-Australia coalition. Ukraine was used as a battleground for this confrontation, and many still believe that Russian President Putin’s visit to Beijing three weeks before the war was meant to reassure the Chinese regarding their backing prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine […]
Erdoğan and Netanyahu: Neo-Ottomanism or a New Middle East?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, following his usual practice of seizing opportunities to convert developments into political gains that consolidate his power, is attempting to exploit the wars in Gaza and southern Lebanon by depicting them as a threat to Turkey’s very existence. This strategy serves to obscure the significant economic and social problems that […]
The Importance of Reviving the Debate on ‘National Identity’
The issue of “identity” preoccupied the late Ottoman milieu. There were those who argued that an Ottoman identity must be formulated to preserve territorial unity and protect the “eternal Ottoman state,” as was the case in the late literature of the intellectuals of Abdul Hamid II’s court, and those for whom identity took on nationalist […]
About a Mysterious Debate Between Netanyahu and Edward Said
In June 1996, Yedioth Ahronoth published a lengthy biography of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He had just risen to political prominence after being elected head of the Likud party in 1993, becoming the leader of the opposition. In the 1996 elections, he defeated Shimon Peres, becoming the first Israeli prime minister elected directly by […]
‘Left-Liberal’ Intransigence Provides Opportunities for European Right-Wing…
Right-wing parties have gained significant presence in several European countries and have now seats in state assemblies, national parliaments, and the European Parliament, where they have united into a single parliamentary bloc. These right-wing parties share similar rhetoric and themes that are central to their election campaigns, leading to their prominent position in many influential […]
Lavrov’s Remarks: A Proven Recipe to unsettle Turkey
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has a tried-and-true strategy for dealing with the Turks regarding the Syrian file. It is enough for him to trigger Turkey’s pathological fears regarding the Kurds and declare the dangers of the secession of the Autonomous Administration and the creation of a Kurdish entity, which causes Ankara to flinch and […]
A Year After October 7: Looking Back
Wars escalate gradually, often with pre-war tensions remaining invisible. In the 1956 Suez War, for instance, the escalation spanned twenty months, beginning on February 28, 1955, with an Israeli raid on Gaza that resulted in the deaths of forty Egyptian soldiers. From that day forward, Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser contemplated turning eastward, away from […]
Kurdish Journalists in Turkey: Jailed at Home, Murdered Abroad
The grim reality of journalists working in Turkey is now well-known. The country is one of the world’s most notorious jailers of journalists, taking the top spot as the country with the highest number of imprisoned journalists in 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, and 2018. Only in 2023 did Turkey drop below the 5th place spot, […]