Is Saudi Presence in Syria a Qatari-Turkish Arrangement?

By The Kurdish Center for Studies

Saudi Arabia is taking the lead among Arab states in engaging with the transitional government in Damascus, an effort perceived as aimed at securing an early foothold in the Syrian capital and preventing Qatar and Turkey from dominating the landscape.

In this context, The Wall Street Journal reports on the competition for influence in Syria, noting that Saudi Arabia, along with Jordan and Qatar, is working to send humanitarian and energy aid to the war-weary population in Syria. According to the newspaper, Arab states are banking on these efforts serving both tactical and strategic objectives, including cutting off the flow of drugs and extremist fighters crossing Syria’s borders and countering the influence of rivals like Turkey and Iran.

“Governments in the region are concerned about the Islamist roots of the new rulers, but they are also worried that their popularity could have an overwhelming impact on their own populations,” says Fabrice Balanche, a French expert on Syrian affairs. “These governments also want a seat at the table in the new Syria.”

The way the political landscape in Syria shapes up following the swift and unexpected fall of the Assad regime has far-reaching implications for the region. Over more than a decade of conflict, foreign actors—including the two main supporters of the ousted president, Iran and Russia—have backed various factions to further their often competing agendas, turning Syria into a theater for proxy wars.

The Arab League suspended Syria’s membership following the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, but in recent years, Saudi Arabia has spearheaded efforts to renew ties with the country.

In the vacuum left by Assad’s fall, new Arab states are offering assistance for reconstruction and to alleviate the country’s food and energy shortages—moves that analysts suggest are driven by motives beyond mere altruism. In recent days, Saudi Arabia has established a humanitarian air bridge to Syria, delivering food, shelter, and medical supplies. The kingdom has also proposed training and equipping the Syrian civilian police and replacing sanctioned Iranian oil supplies to help ease the energy crisis in Damascus, although these proposals remain under discussion.

According to the newspaper, many Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are concerned about the resurgence of Islamist groups such as al-Qaeda, ISIS, and the Muslim Brotherhood. They have sought to prevent the spread of political Islam in the region since the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011 led to the ousting of leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. In some instances, this vacuum has been filled by Islamist groups, including Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, which was later overthrown in a military coup. Since then, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have invested billions of dollars in Egypt to support Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the general-turned-president.

Last week, Syria’s new foreign minister chose Saudi Arabia for his first trip abroad before proceeding to other Arab countries, including Qatar, the UAE, and Jordan.

However, Turkey has established ties with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other groups opposing Assad, giving Ankara a favorable position with the new Syrian government compared to Saudi Arabia. Days after Assad fled Syria, Turkey sent officials and businessmen to Damascus, signaling its intent to assist in rebuilding the country’s energy sector, according to statements from the new Syrian administration and the Turkish Energy Ministry.

Riyadh aims to leverage aid partly as a means to counter Ankara’s influence in Syria. “Saudi Arabia’s goal is to balance the significant role that Turkey is playing in the new Syria,” said Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. He added that Riyadh also seeks to ensure that Syria does not descend into violence and social unrest, which could threaten regional stability.

In this context, Qatar has long supported anti-Assad groups and opted not to join Saudi Arabia and other Arab states in normalizing relations with Syria in 2023. Middle Eastern officials report that Doha is in advanced discussions with the new government to provide energy and financial assistance.

Qatar Airways, the national carrier of the Gulf state, became the first international airline to resume commercial flights to Damascus after a 13-year hiatus. Despite its own economic challenges, Jordan has offered to supply electricity to Syria and is engaged in discussions to strengthen ties with the new government.

Abdulaziz al-Owaishiq, who is responsible for political affairs at the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), wrote in Arab News that the GCC intends to provide technical assistance to rebuild state institutions and help rehabilitate roads, electricity, schools, hospitals, and homes in Syria.

However, there is another narrative surrounding the new Syrian authority’s openness to Saudi Arabia that was not addressed by The Wall Street Journal, which relied on the viewpoints of several experts who analyzed the situation through a traditional lens—namely, that regional countries are competing for influence. Currently, the situation in Syria is more complex. According to sources familiar with the situation in Damascus and regional politics, it appears that both Qatar and Turkey are operating under a completely new dynamic in Syria, including efforts to bring Saudi Arabia into the Syrian arena and paving the way for it by allowing the leader of the transitional authority, Ahmed al-Sharaa, to prioritize Saudi Arabia and seek its favor by positioning it as an influential player in the new Syria.

The Turkish-Qatari objective is to encourage Saudi Arabia to engage in Syria and distance it from an axis that views the new authority with skepticism, as well as to extricate Riyadh from the contents of the Aqaba Statement, which outlines an Arab framework for addressing the new Damascus authority under UN trusteeship, in accordance with the mandate of Resolution 2254, and under Arab supervision of Syria’s compliance with the Aqaba Statement’s criteria.

Political sources suggest that Qatar and Turkey’s confidence stems from the belief that Saudi Arabia lacks a strategic vision in Syria, and that all of its actions will ultimately serve the interests of Qatar and Turkey.

In any case, not all Arab states have rushed to embrace the government led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The UAE welcomed the Syrian delegation this week, but did not publicly offer any economic assistance, according to The Wall Street Journal. At a conference in Abu Dhabi in mid-December, Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, expressed concerns about the new rulers’ Islamist roots and their previous associations with extremist groups, stating that these were “very worrying.” He added that if extremist elements among the factions were to dominate, “this will lead us to another crisis in the region.”

Author

  • The Kurdish Center for Studies (KCS) is the general term given for articles which are collaborations by the Co-Directors, contributors, or staff from the KCS—where listing each of the specific authors is unnecessary. The KCS Editorial Board reviews and approves such pieces before publication.

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