The Competition Between the Indo-Ibrahimic Corridor and the Silk Road Amidst Emerging Syrian Leadership

The Middle East is witnessing increased regional and international activity. Syria stands out as a vital geopolitical arena where the interests and agendas of multiple powers converge. At a time when regional and international actors are competing for influence, this complex landscape is further complicated by a significant internal factor: shifts in the Syrian power structure, recently intensified by the lifting of U.S. sanctions. In this context, the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Syrian faction that emerged from jihadist Islamist organizations and was able to seize control of power in Syria, is of central importance in analyzing the country’s future and its regional and international interactions in light of this new development.

To establish a clear understanding of the framework of this article, it is necessary to define the key concepts underpinning it.

First, the concept of “Indo-Ibrahimi” refers to an emerging strategic framework involving a convergence of interests and influence among countries such as India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the United States. This framework aims, among other objectives, to counter Iran’s regional influence, promote Arab-Israeli normalization, and secure shared economic interests.

Second, the “Silk Road” refers to China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, which seeks to enhance economic and infrastructural connectivity across Asia, Africa, and Europe, carrying wide-ranging geopolitical implications for the regional and global balance of power.

Third, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Syrian armed faction that evolved from al-Qaeda and subsequently from Jabhat al-Nusra, has become a dominant force capable of seizing power in Syria. This article aims to explore the potential repercussions of this hegemony, especially in light of the lifting of U.S. sanctions, on regional and international interactions.

The security and strategic significance of analyzing this overlap between ‘Indo-Ibrahimi’ and ‘Silk Road’ in this new power scenario in Syria—brought about by the lifting of U.S. sanctions—lies in its ability to shed light on complex regional and international dynamics and their profound impact on the country’s future. In this context, how will the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to the helm of power influence the interactions among these competing regional and international powers? What security and strategic challenges and opportunities have emerged following this shift in the Syrian power structure and the changing international environment?

This article starts from the main premise that the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to the head of power in Syria, coupled with the lifting of U.S. sanctions, has created a new reality that will fundamentally impact the interactions of ‘Indo-Ibrahimi’ and ‘Silk Road’ initiatives in the region and within Syria. While this scenario presents unique security and strategic challenges, it also offers potential new avenues and opportunities for addressing the Syrian crisis and shaping its future amid shifting regional and global power balances. This article will explore these challenges and opportunities arising from this complex overlap, in light of the dramatic shift in Syria’s power dynamics and the evolving international context.

First: Security and Strategic Transformations in Light of the Rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Lifting of U.S. Sanctions

1- Reassessing the Objectives of ‘Hindu-Ibrahimi’ in Light of the New Variables:

-Countering Iranian Influence:

With the lifting of sanctions, new opportunities may arise for indirect cooperation between the ‘Hindu-Ibrahimi’ countries and HTS in confronting Iran’s expanding regional influence. These opportunities could include broader intelligence exchanges or limited coordination on certain regional issues, particularly if HTS is willing to make pragmatic concessions in this regard. However, the official designation of HTS as a terrorist organization remains a significant obstacle to any formal alliance or substantial direct support from the United States and Israel.

–Path Toward Normalization with Israel:

Following statements by interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa regarding indirect contacts with Israel, along with confirmed reports of meetings between Syrian and Israeli officials, it appears that al-Sharaa’s approach aims to empower himself and his team to govern Syria. Nonetheless, this trajectory is unlikely to continue unchallenged, as internal conflicts may emerge between hardline factions and moderates within al-Sharaa’s government. These tensions are driven by the dominance of ideological elements over pragmatic political considerations—considerations that al-Sharaa is attempting to leverage to stabilize his rule and expand his influence.

2-Economic Interests:

The economic landscape in Syria might experience a relative improvement following the lifting of sanctions, potentially opening doors for economic opportunities among the ‘Hindu-Ibrahimi’ countries. However, the sustainability of these gains depends heavily on the ability of the Syrian authorities—particularly HTS—to establish a secure and stable environment conducive to attracting investments. Given the ongoing internal and external challenges, long-term stability in this regard remains uncertain.

3-The Expected Role of the ‘Indo-Brahimi’ Axis in Dealing with HTS After the Lifting of Sanctions

The countries of the ‘Indo-Brahimi’ axis, led primarily by the United States and Israel, are likely to adopt a cautious and reserve-oriented approach toward HTS. More pragmatic strategies may emerge to manage the new reality, aiming to achieve specific interests or to contain any potential negative repercussions resulting from the lifting of sanctions. Some regional states might focus on establishing formal or informal communication channels or providing conditional support in certain areas, all while considering the associated risks. Conversely, the primary focus will remain on containing HTS’s influence and preventing its regional expansion.

In the near term, direct military intervention is unlikely; however, covert intelligence operations remain a viable option. Pursuing a fully hostile policy toward the new Syrian government could contribute to regional instability in the short and medium term, especially given the internal and external challenges that HTS may encounter.

The stabilization of HTS in power and the lifting of U.S. sanctions constitute a significant shift in the military and security balances within the region. This development is expected to lead to a reshaping of alliances and internal conflicts, with the potential for continued external interventions and an increase in activities by other extremist groups seeking to exploit the changing situation.

4- New Security Challenges and Risks

The potential security challenges arising from HTS’s presence in power for the Indo-Ibrahimi countries include border security concerns due to regional instability and possible refugee flows. Additionally, HTS may provide support—either openly or covertly—to other groups with similar ideologies in the region, thereby increasing security threats. The conflicting ideology of HTS poses a significant threat to the interests and values of many Indo-Ibrahimi states.

In summary, HTS’s control of power in Syria has generated substantial and complex security and strategic challenges for the Indo-Ibrahimi countries. This situation is likely to undermine their objectives and weaken their regional alliances. Moreover, it may lead to increased instability and conflict within Syria and across the broader region.

Second: The Strategic Security Dimension of the ‘Silk Road’ and the Impact of HTS’s Rise in Light of the US Sanctions Lift

1- The Impact of HTS’s Rise on the Objectives of the ‘Silk Road’:

Despite the lifting of US sanctions, the presence of HTS in power is likely to remain a significant obstacle to China’s ambitious investments in Syria under the ‘Silk Road’ initiative. While the removal of sanctions may ease some economic pressures, China continues to prioritize political stability and security as essential prerequisites for its engagement in any country. Given the international skepticism and potential domestic security challenges associated with HTS’s governance, the environment may still be considered high-risk for investment.

However, the lifting of sanctions could lead China to reassess opportunities more cautiously. Although large-scale projects will likely remain risky, limited investment prospects might emerge in relatively stable regions under HTS control—especially if HTS is willing to offer security and economic guarantees. Alternatively, China may seek safer alternative routes or focus on more stable countries within the region to advance its ‘Silk Road’ initiatives.

2- The Impact of HTS’s Rise on Infrastructure and Regional Security in the Context of the Silk Road:

HTS’s rule is likely to continue hindering the implementation of major infrastructure projects that could connect Syria to the Silk Road initiative. While the lifting of sanctions may facilitate some aspects related to finance and trade, ongoing instability, security challenges, and the difficulty of achieving widespread international recognition may make the execution of large-scale strategic projects difficult.

The authority may focus on smaller, local projects to meet basic needs, but projects of greater regional significance are likely to remain unlikely in the short to medium term. Security risks will stay elevated—due to ongoing instability, the presence of opposition factions to HTS’s rule, and the threat of terrorist attacks—posing significant challenges to any Chinese projects in Syria. Beijing may need to allocate substantial resources to secure its projects, which could impact their attractiveness to investors.

Nevertheless, the lifting of sanctions might encourage China to maintain limited diplomatic and economic channels with the HTS regime to safeguard its future interests in Syria, even though its influence will remain limited due to persistent risks.

3- Syria’s Position in the Silk Road Initiative Under HTS Authority After the Lifting of Sanctions:

Despite Syria’s geopolitical significance as a potential strategic connector, the presence of HTS in power—even after the lifting of sanctions—is likely to diminish this importance in the short and medium term regarding the Silk Road initiative. Political stability and security remain top priorities for China. HTS’s rule may not be able to fully ensure these conditions, and the impact of lifting sanctions on China’s engagement with an HTS-led regime is expected to be limited.

While the sanctions removal might alleviate some concerns related to direct sanctions, China is cautious about maintaining its economic and trade relations with major countries and may continue to be cautious in engaging extensively with a regime that lacks broad international recognition.

4- Interactions with Regional and International Powers in the Context of the ‘Silk Road’ and HTS’s Authority After the Lifting of Sanctions:

The continued presence of HTS in power is likely to complicate the interactions between the Silk Road initiative and the interests of the Indo-Ibrahimi countries. While the rhetoric of some of these countries may shift following the lifting of sanctions, they are expected to remain highly cautious and skeptical of any significant role for an HTS-led regime within the initiative. This could lead to ongoing tensions between China and these countries.

Regarding Russia and Iran, their positions are unlikely to change substantially after the lifting of U.S. sanctions. As allies of the previous Syrian regime and opponents of HTS, they are likely to maintain a negative stance toward Syria’s participation in the Silk Road under HTS’s rule. They may continue to obstruct or limit support for such involvement, preferring to wait until a more internationally accepted regime comes to power.

Third: Overlap and Competition between the ‘Indo-Ibrahimi’ and ‘Silk Road’ in Syria

1- Potential Areas of Competition Under HTS Rule After the Lifting of Sanctions:

Despite the lifting of U.S. sanctions, the scope of competition between the Indo-Ibrahimi and Silk Road tracks in Syria under HTS’s rule is likely to remain very limited in the short and medium term. While countries from the Indo-Ibrahimi bloc, led by the United States and Israel, may ease some economic pressures, it is unlikely they will engage in major strategic investments or projects with a regime that still poses fundamental ideological and security challenges.

However, covert competition for influence may persist through supporting factions opposed to HTS or attempting to indirectly influence the policies of the new regime. Conversely, China may adopt a more pragmatic approach by exploring limited economic opportunities that serve its interests within the framework of the Silk Road initiative, taking advantage of the easing sanctions. Nonetheless, caution will remain paramount due to ongoing security and political risks.

Future competition is expected to focus on securing potential reconstruction contracts, but under conditions imposed by international donors. The HTS regime is likely to prioritize cooperation with parties that do not impose harsh conditions or share some limited objectives. It may seek to attract Chinese investments to alleviate its increasing economic burdens, but it will remain cautious of any security cooperation that could conflict with its core ideology or undermine its emerging authority.

Security cooperation with Indo-Ibrahimi countries in sensitive areas such as counter-terrorism will remain extremely difficult given HTS’s international designation.

2- Potential Areas of Cooperation:

Under the current circumstances, there may be limited and informal exchanges of intelligence information between the parties involved in both tracks and the HTS-led regime regarding common threats in the field of counter-terrorism, should the concerned parties perceive a shared interest in doing so after some restrictions are eased. Regarding fragile regional stability, a temporary convergence of interests might arise around preventing the escalation of chaos. However, this cooperation is expected to remain cautious and provisional, as the Indo-Brahimi countries will likely remain hesitant to engage in any overt or formal cooperation with the new regime.

3- The Impact of This Overlap on the Future of Syria Under HTS Rule After the Lifting of Sanctions:

Cautious rivalry and mutual distrust are likely to continue fueling chronic instability and conflict in Syria, even after some sanctions are lifted. The lack of full international recognition and various political obstacles will impede genuine efforts to achieve the desired stabilization. Any limited cooperation will remain tactical and will not result in a comprehensive resolution to the complex conflict. Reconstruction efforts will remain limited in scope, with conditions that are highly challenging. It is unlikely that the Indo-Brahimi countries will contribute significantly to reconstruction under the HTS regime. Conversely, China may offer some limited aid or investments, taking advantage of the easing of sanctions, but will do so cautiously, demanding clear security and economic guarantees. Achieving comprehensive reconstruction will require broad international recognition and an inclusive political solution that involves all components of the Syrian population.

Over time, HTS’s continued hold on power is likely to entrench a political regime facing increasing international isolation. By adopting a hardline domestic stance, the regime will seek to consolidate its grip on authority and suppress potential opposition, facing significant difficulties in establishing normal and sustainable relations with the international community. In terms of foreign policy, its approach is expected to remain limited, primarily focused on maintaining power and securing some pragmatic regional or international support that may emerge after the lifting of certain sanctions.

4- Possible Future Scenarios:

With HTS remaining in power and after the lifting of some US sanctions, this complex rivalry is likely to continue influencing regional and Syrian security and stability in the long term under several possible scenarios:

Status Quo Stalemate with Rising Tensions:

The current situation may persist in the absence of broad international recognition, accompanied by a subtle competition for influence among regional and international powers, with periodic and sporadic escalations in security tensions.

Pragmatic and Limited Cooperation:

Some parties might engage in pragmatic and limited cooperation with the HTS regime on specific issues that directly benefit their interests, such as countering common threats or securing narrow economic gains, especially benefiting from the easing of sanctions. However, this cooperation would lack official recognition or significant political backing.

Escalation of Regional and International Tensions:

The continuation of HTS’s rule could lead to increased regional and international tensions, through covert or indirect support for opposition forces or efforts to undermine the regime’s authority from abroad. Although large-scale direct military intervention is unlikely, proxy conflicts are expected to persist and further inflame the region.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to power in Syria, alongside the lifting of US sanctions, marks a pivotal turning point that redefines the strategic landscape of the Middle East. This development presents complex security and strategic challenges for both the Indo-Ibrahimic and the Silk Road, necessitating a reassessment of objectives and alliances in light of this new reality. While the future remains uncertain, how regional and international powers respond to this evolving dynamic will largely determine the trajectory of the Syrian crisis and the regional balance of power in the long term. The question remains open as to whether these competing forces can find opportunities for pragmatic engagement amid these profound shifts, which are likely to lead to a more complex and intertwined geopolitical future.

Based on this analysis, there is a pressing need for further in-depth studies to evaluate the potential impacts of HTS’s rise on the strategies of regional and international actors in Syria, as well as to analyze the strategic security challenges arising from this geopolitical transformation. It is essential to develop flexible tools and strategies to adapt to this new reality, considering all possible scenarios and potential repercussions on regional and international stability. Understanding these intertwined complexities is crucial for formulating effective policies aimed at achieving stability and peace in Syria and the broader region.