Ankara’s Agenda in the New Syria: Occupation, Turkification, and Kurdish Displacement

In parallel with the large-scale offensive launched by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham on November 27, which concluded on December 8 with its forces entering the capital Damascus without significant resistance, leading to the collapse of the regime and the flight of former President Bashar al-Assad, pro-Turkish factions under the National Army initiated a military campaign dubbed “Dawn of Freedom,” targeting cities and areas under the Democratic Autonomous Administration (DAA). These factions captured the areas of Shahba and Tal Rifaat, and on December 7, they entered the city of Manbij. This was accompanied by the killing and wounding of dozens of civilians, the displacement of thousands of Kurdish citizens from al-Shehba camps, and looting and pillaging of civilians—particularly in Manbij—under accusations of collaboration with the institutions of the Autonomous Administration. The pro-Turkish factions not only seized control of Tal Rifaat and Manbij but also continued their offensive to take control of Tishreen Dam and Qara Qozak Bridge, while Turkey mobilized units of its army along the borders of Kobanê, threatening to launch a major incursion.

Threatening to Occupy Kobanê

Following the recent developments in Syria, and the new reality they created, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) decided to adopt a flexible approach towards the capital Damascus, withdrawing from the cities of Deir Ezzor, Al-Mayadeen, and Al-Bukamal, which they had entered after the former regime forces fled. This withdrawal was motivated by concerns that ISIS (Daesh) would take advantage of the vacuum and expand its control in those areas. The Democratic Autonomous Administration also proposed a national dialogue initiative, inviting all Syrian parties to come together to discuss resolving all outstanding issues without external interference and based on the integrity of Syrian land and people.

However, Turkey did not heed these initiatives. Instead, it took advantage of the new situation following the arrival of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Damascus and the resulting vacuum in numerous Syrian regions due to the regular army’s withdrawal, the retreat of Iranian militias, and the destruction of the former Syrian army’s arsenal by Israel. Turkey sought to expand its influence and presence in Syria at the expense of the Autonomous Administration’s areas. After the pro-Ankara factions gained control of Tal Rifaat, Manbij, and Shehba, they are now attempting, with the support of Turkish air and artillery cover, to advance towards Tishreen Dam and Qara Qozak Bridge, seize control of the M4 road, and threaten to occupy the city of Kobanê.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) successfully repelled the ongoing large-scale attacks launched by the pro-Turkish factions, thwarting their military offensives and inflicting dozens of casualties among their ranks. The SDF announced that fierce fighting and significant resistance would continue as a response to every attempt to advance towards areas east of the Euphrates. Despite nearly two weeks having passed since the military campaign initiated by Turkey and its allied factions, no ground progress has been made. Resistance continues in several neighborhoods of Manbij, where units of the SDF conduct swift attacks against the ‘National Army’ militants who have established positions in the city. The SDF has also used drones in confrontations with the attacking factions. Video footage released by the SDF Media Center showcased drone strikes targeting Syrian National Army positions, resulting in the destruction of military vehicles and missile batteries, as well as the deaths of militants preparing to assault Tishreen Dam and Qara Qozak Bridge.

The commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazloum Abdi, announced on his account on the ‘X’ platform an initiative aimed at establishing a demilitarized zone in Kobanê to thwart Turkey’s mobilization and preparations for an attack on the city. The text of the initiative reads: “Affirming our steadfast commitment to achieving a comprehensive ceasefire throughout Syria, we announce our readiness to submit a proposal to establish a demilitarized zone in the city of Kobanê, along with redistributing security forces under the supervision and presence of the United States. This initiative seeks to address Turkey’s security concerns and ensure long-term stability in the region.”

This initiative also aims to expose the false Turkish narrative, which relies on a series of fabrications and distortions of reality, as well as the expansionist and occupation plans of the AKP-MHP coalition government. These plans are designed to undermine the Autonomous Administration, eliminate the SDF, displace the Kurdish population, and exert control over the northern and eastern regions of Syria, including Aleppo, as publicly stated by Devlet Bahçeli. This sets the stage for the potential annexation of these areas to Turkey, in line with the outdated notion of the ‘Milli Pact.’

In parallel with this peace initiative and its readiness for dialogue with all parties, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced their full preparedness to defend Kobanê against any Turkish military incursion. In a statement published on December 19, they explained that, in collaboration with the people of Kobanê—who confronted and defeated ISIS ten years ago—they would wage a popular war to protect the city and prevent the advance of the invading Turkish army and its affiliated factions.

International Position

Many countries have voiced their opposition to any new Turkish military operation targeting the Autonomous Administration and the SDF. The United States has mentioned ongoing communications with Turkish officials to reach agreements that would prevent the military incursion that Ankara insists on. Matthew Miller, spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, indicated that they have reached a truce agreement with Turkey concerning areas around Manbij until the end of the week.

Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham have threatened to impose sanctions on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan should he persist in attacking SDF positions and refuse to agree to a truce and ceasefire. They were joined by Republican Senator John F. Kennedy, who condemned the Turkish government’s stance and its insistence on launching attacks against U.S.-allied forces in the battle against ISIS.

Former French President François Hollande stated that the attacks on the region of northern and eastern Syria are unacceptable. He emphasized, “I cannot turn a blind eye to leaving the Kurds alone. France and the international coalition have an obligation to protect the Kurds in Syria.”

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also urged Turkey to cease its attacks on northern and eastern Syria and to refrain from occupying the city of Kobanê, where, as she noted, “the Kurds heroically resisted ISIS” in 2014 to prevent it from falling under its control.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen rejected Turkish threats to attack Kobanê, asserting that Europe does not want to see Syria under Turkish influence, as this would undermine Europe’s strategic interests.

Meanwhile, the United States is intensifying its diplomatic efforts to persuade Turkey to abandon its expansionist plans in the areas east of the Euphrates and to halt the military incursion into Kobanê that is currently being planned. This comes as an official from the Turkish Ministry of Defense announced Turkey’s determination to carry out a military operation. Additionally, U.S. Central Command Commander General Michael Eric Kurilla visited northeast Syria and met with General Mazloum Abdi as part of ongoing coordination and cooperation efforts against ISIS, which has recently revived and increased its attacks from the Syrian Badia.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) link the increase in ISIS attacks and the resurgence of its ambitions to the military operations and expansion campaigns carried out by Turkey and its allied factions against the Autonomous Administration and the SDF. General Mazloum Abdi mentioned that they have intelligence regarding ISIS’s plans to launch attacks on facilities that house ISIS members in detention centers in northeastern Syria. “We have intelligence about plans to attack facilities containing ISIS members or their families,” Abdi stated in an interview with the British newspaper The World.

He noted that the attacks by Turkey and its allied armed factions are impacting the deployment of their forces, which, in turn, affects “the protection of these facilities.” Abdi added, “We are working diligently to keep them under control and secure.”

Conclusion

The Turkish government, formed by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the ultra-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party, perceives a timely opportunity for further military expansion and control over Syrian territories. This would ensure significant Turkish influence that surpasses both Iranian and Russian presence in the newly emerging Syria. It aims to undermine the Autonomous Administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces, perpetrate further displacement of the Kurdish population, and implement permanent demographic changes in their regions.

Accordingly, the following points can be established:

First: Turkey plans to occupy additional Kurdish-majority areas, displace their residents, and replace them with other groups, as evidenced by its specific and concentrated actions in Afrin in 2018 and Ras al-Ayn in 2019. This strategy aims to create a profound demographic shift that would establish a non-Kurdish population belt alongside its borders, where Kurds represent the overwhelming majority on the Turkish side. Consequently, Turkey rejects all dialogue and truce initiatives and does not accept the establishment of demilitarized buffer zones. The old/new Turkish plan is centered on the Turkification of the Kurds within Turkey and their displacement from areas near its international borders, particularly those situated within Syria and Iraq.

Second: The Turkish government believes that the significant changes in Syria should provide it with the opportunity and right to expand its control over more Syrian territories, thereby ensuring that it has a dominant role in shaping the future of Syria, particularly regarding the identity of the upcoming regime and the distribution of powers and authorities. The Turkish government opposes a decentralized state, any constitutional recognition of the Kurdish identity, and any authority that operates independently of its political will.

Third: The Turkish government perceives the Autonomous Administration (which is based on a coalition of Kurds and Arabs) as a threat. This model recognizes ethnic, religious, and sectarian identities, nurtures their cultures and specificities, ensures women’s rights, and rejects political Islam. Such a project is fundamentally at odds with Turkey’s vision of a nation-state built on a single ethnicity, flag, and language. Therefore, Turkey aims to undermine this project and prevent it from being replicated in other Syrian regions.

Fourth: Turkey seeks to dismantle the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which successfully defeated ISIS and garnered international support and sympathy. As a result, the partnership between the SDF and the international coalition, led by the United States, has effectively been unwound.

Fifth: Ankara expresses intentions to annex Aleppo and the regions it has occupied since 2016, implementing a clear policy of Turkification in these areas. It has administratively linked these territories to Turkey and established educational programs in the Turkish language. Turkey aims to place those in power in Damascus before a fait accompli  if they concede to the Syrian people’s demands for decentralization, recognition of diverse identities, and respect for public rights and freedoms. Ankara envisions a new Syria aligned with its interests: one that adheres to all the conditions previously rejected by the former regime.

Sixth: Following the fierce resistance in Manbij, the Tishreen Dam, and the Qaraqozak Bridge, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are resolutely determined to defend Kobanê with all their strength and resolve. In a statement, the SDF declared that, in cooperation with the people of Kobanê, they will resist fiercely and transform Kobane into a “swamp in which the invaders will drown.” In recent days, the SDF successfully repelled significant military attacks by pro-Turkish factions on the Tishreen Dam, Qaraqozak Bridge, and several villages in the Kobanê countryside, inflicting heavy losses on the attackers. The SDF exploited the use of drones and trenches, which secured the stability of their positions and allowed them to launch effective and unexpected strikes against the advancing forces.

Seventh: There is a growing need for a clear international stance that rejects Turkish military expansion and envisions the changes in Damascus as a new opportunity for calm and stability. This requires an internal dialogue among Syrians and a move away from the rhetoric of violence and confrontation. Consequently, many countries have issued statements opposing Turkish escalation and advocating for the protection of the Kurds and the Autonomous Administration, emphasizing the necessity for Turkey to abandon the language of force and violence and to position itself as a mediator in the political resolution and reunification of the Syrian people.