Would the U.S. abandon Syria in favor of Turkey?

The election in November 2024 of Donald Trump for a second presidential term in the White House was received with anxiety by people in the autonomous Kurdish enclave of Rojava.

A month later, the secularist Arab nationalist regime of the Syrian President, Bashar Assad, fell to Islamist- leaning extremist groups. This transformative shift- which could play into the hands of Turkey- has evoked fears at home and aroused speculation abroad.

Trump’s first term was marked with a troop withdrawal from Rojava, prompting a Turkish military incursion into the two localities of Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad, in October 2019.

Trump and his close officials have always expressed interest in withdrawing troops from the “endless war” in Syria, which the U.S. “has nothing to do with it”.

Days after the president embarked on his duty for the second term, Defense Department revealed it was developing plans to withdraw all U.S. troops from Syria.

Furthermore, in mid- April, reports suggested that hundreds of U.S. troops were withdrawing from north east Syria. The U.S. military said it was shuttering three bases in the region.

Since it formally intervened in the Syrian conflict as part of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, in September 2014, the U.S. has kept nearly 900 boots on the ground. The “reduction” or “consolidation” in troops owes to the recent gains made on the ground against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS).

Though in brief- this article seeks to shed light on the history of the U.S. involvement and meddling in the Syrian politics since World War I up to Assad’s deposition.

A World Product

Syria- as a modern state- came into existence in the aftermath of World War I, which saw the political collapse and the territorial dismantlement of the decrepit Ottoman Empire in 1918. Within the context of the war, Great Britain, France, and Russia had carved up the Middle East into spheres of influence by the terms of the Sykes- Picot Agreement of 1916.

Although Syria was designated as a French zone of influence, it was however, the British forces- not the French- that conquered the country and expelled the Turks.

The United States entered the war belatedly, on behalf of the Allied Powers (Great Britain and France). It did not deploy troops to the Eastern Front. Its role was decisive in determining the outcome of the war.

When weapons fell silent, the four big victors- Great Britain, France, Italy, and U.S.- met in the Paris Peace Conference 1919-1920, to decide on the new order of the world. The U.S. was invited as an observer.

Based on the principle of self- determination, developed by the U.S. President Woodrow Wilson, people liberated by the Turkish yoke had high expectations after the war. For this purpose, the King- Crane Commission was sent to Syria to determine the wishes of the population.

The commission submitted its report to the conference in August 1919. For unknown reasons, the report was put on the shelves.

In conformity with the Syrian Agreement, dated December 15, 1919, French troops replaced the British ones in Syria, including Kurdish areas. By the end of the year, the last of British troops had left the Syrian soil.

While the Paris Conference failed to settle conflicting issues once for all, France asserted its historical and cultural claimed to Syria in the San Remo Conference in April 1920. The Americans had been appeased elsewhere by receiving a considerable share of the Mosul oil.

In the battle of Maysalun, which occurred on July 24, 1920, the heavily- equipped French troops defeated the fledgling Syrian forces.

Faisal, the third son of Sharif Hussein of Mecca, a British protégé, who had been ruling his self-proclaimed kingdom of Syria since March 1920, was evicted from the country the next day.

On June 1, 1920, the Senate rejected a request advocating the establishment of a mandate over Armenia. The Syrian issue was put into oblivion.

On the second anniversary of Maysalun (24 July, 1922), the League of Nations formally ratified the French Mandate on Syria. Two months later, the King-Crane report was published. It revealed that Syrians were desirous of an American mandate, or, failing that, a British mandate. The mere idea of any French mandate was rejected fundamentally.

Unfledged Independence

In the interwar period, we hear nothing of U.S. engagement in Syria. The Great Depression made the U.S. to pay no attention to this small country. As World War II, was nearing its end, Washington began to pay more attention to Syria. In a pre-emptive step to deter any Soviet penetration, Washington recognized the independence of Syria in 1944.

The U.S. President Harry Truman opposed French attempts to remain in Syria, after the war. On April 17, 1946, Syria gained its independence. The U.S. was second to none to establish relations with the new authorities in Damascus.

Washington support for Syria prior to its independence led to cordial relations afterwards. However, it seems the new authorities were rejecting Washington’s request to allow the Trans-Arabian Pipeline (Tapline), which passed through Syrian territories. In turn, Syria’s request for arms in 1947 was rejected by the Congress.

The last straw came in 1948, when Truman became the first world leader to recognized the state of Israel on the very same day its was proclaimed. Although Truman refused to send weapons to either side of the 1948 Arab- Israeli War, the image of Uncle Sam was tarnished beyond repair.

On March 30, 1949, the Army Chief of Staff, Colonel Husni Zaim, led a bloodless coup against the democratically elected President Shukri Quwatli, a nationalist.

On the surface, while Zaim’s motive was to save the image of the Syrian army, he was accused of being a stooge for the West. His adversaries accused him of building a “Kurdish Military Republic”.

Four days after the coup, Zaim ratified the deal concerning the Tapline Agreement. Days later, Washington gave recognition to Zaim. Relatedly, Zaim entered into peace talks with Israel. He had agreed to settle Palestinian refugees on Syrian soil.

Zaim also oppressed his political rivals, particularly Communists. Most notably, he signed an armistice agreement with Israel in July. Reports of his alleged meetings with Moshe Sharett remain unclear.

Following a 137- day personal rule, Zaim and his Prime Minister, Muhsin Barazi, were killed by firing squad. Zaim and Barazi’s Kurdish roots cannot be ruled out from meeting such an end. The Tapline Agreement remained intact and was inaugurated in 1952.

The Democratic Era

The first era of coups in Syria was curtailed in 1954, when the military rule of Adib Shishakli was brought to an end, and democratic rule was regained. To Washington’s agitation, the now neutralist and the nation-wide popular Quwatli was re-elected as president in 1955.

Within the context of the Cold War, Syria became a contesting battleground between the Soviets from one hand, and the Americans, Turkey and the Baghdad Pact from another, throughout the 1950s.

In 1967 and 1957, Turkey assembled troops on its border with Syria. Ankara accused Syria of becoming a Russian military base.

Washington was watching closely. It pledged support to Ankara in case of military action against Damascus under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, i.e. in self- defense.

In the following year, U.S. troops landed in Lebanon against a potential threat from Syria, which was perceived as a hotbed for Communism. The claim which was not unfounded.

When announced, the Syria government rejected the Eisenhower Doctrine to control the region. It also dismissed the notion of any communist threat to Damascus.

In August 1957, Syrian secret services revealed CIA’s Operation Wappen, and arrested three people on charges of plotting a coup against Quwatli. Military Attaché, Robert Molloy, Francis Jeton, and Howard Stone were declared unwanted people, and eventually deported.

Operation Straggle aimed at regime change in 1956 failed to the ground. In that year, Syria had signed an agreement with the Soviet Union.

The Crisis defused when Syria- in October- lodged a complaint with the UN General Assembly against Turkey’s provocative moves on its border.

Afif Bizri, an anti-Western officer, became Chief of Staff. Syria’s turbulent domestic scene was dominated by the Communist Party. The Baathists sought union with Egypt merely to block the communist from assuming power.

Washington severed its relation with Damascus after the formation of the United Arab Republic. However, under Jamal Abdul Nasser, Communists were oppressed and tracked down. Diplomatic relations were restored after the dissolution of the UAR in 1961.

The Pragmatist

In March 1963, a gaggle of Baathist officers led a coup, inaugurating a new era during which Syria became the main Middle Eastern country to float in the Russian orbit.

The occupation of the Golan Heights by Israel in Six-day War of 1967, further pushed Damascus into the warm arms of Moscow. To Syria’s discontent, Washington considered incidents on the border violations of the Armistice Agreement of 1949. Diplomatic relations were severed for nearly a decade.

Backed by the Soviet Union, Hafez Assad, who ruled from 1970 until June 2000, made Syria a basic player in the region.

The astute politician made Syria a real political actor in the Middle East. Assad adopted the policy of “No Alliances” and Syria became an isolated country.

During the civil war in Lebanon which erupted in 1975, Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger convinced Hafez Assad to send troops to Lebanon ostensibly to act as a deterrent force, but in actual fact, to fight on behalf of the Maronite militias, which garnered strong ties with Washington.

Conversely, in 1979, State Department classified Syria a state sponsor of terrorism for its continued occupation of Lebanon. A classification that remains in effect.

Kissinger’s shuttle diplomacy had led to the 1974 Syrian- Israeli Separation of Forces Agreement. As a precursor to a new era, Richard Nixon became the first U.S. president to visit Syria in June of that year.

The collapse of the Soviet Union was a major blow to Assad. For a while, he was left alone. However, Moscow remained Syria’s chief arm’s supplier.

The invasion of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein in 1990 was a God-sent gift to Assad. The canny geopolitician was not of the nature to let the chance slip away. Though symbolically, Syria sent troops to Saudi Arabia as part of the U.S.- led Operation Desert Shield in 1991, to contain Iraqi forces.

Ostensibly, that seemed to be a game changer, but to no avail. The U.S. sponsored peace negotiations initiated in Madrid, Spain, in late 1991. The marathon talks which lasted for more than four years failed to introduced any peace treaty between Syria and Israel. Assad adamantly accused the Americans of double- standard policy and of being biased in favor of Israel.

The Turbulent Decade

When senior Assad died, in June 2000, Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, was among the first foreign politicians to visit Damascus. The 15-minute meeting with the new president was decisive.

At the time, Albright declared that she found Syria’s “designated” new leader ready to pursue the peace talks. That was received as an endorsement for Bashar to replace his father.

Relations improved in the wake of the Sept. 11, where Damascus rendered help to Washington by providing intelligence information on al-Qaeda. The secular regime cooperated with Washington since they had a common enemy; Sunni Islamists.

The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, soured the already worsened relations. Amid rising tension, then Secretary of State, Colin Powell, visited Damascus in May 2003. Powell demanded that Syria close offices of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Syria was accused of giving harbor to Iraqi leaders.

Powell said the use of military force against Damascus was not on the table. However, before the year drew to a close, Syria Accountability Act was passed into law. Among other things, Syria was asked to stop feeding terrorism in Iraq.

Many were of the conviction that the Syrian Baathist regime would meet the same fate of Iraq. To avert this end, Damascus began to send or at least facilitated extremist Sunni Jihadists to fight the foreign troops there. The U.S. army found itself in a quagmire. Ironically, Assad’s successor was among those fought the American troops in Iraq.

Following the assassination of Lebanon’s former Prime Minister, Rafiq Hariri, in 2005, Syrian military forces and intelligence services withdrew from Lebanon, ending 29 years of political domination.

Unexpectedly, in March 2011, Syria was hit by the wave of peaceful protests, which developed into a devastating civil war.

In August 2011, President Barack Obama became the first ever foreign leader to call on Assad to step down. Later, the CIA trained and armed Syrian fighters- notably Jihadists- to fight the Assad regime. Encouraged by Obama, Turkey followed suit. In 2012, the U.S. closed its embassy in Damascus.

However, the emergence as of 2012 of extremist groups including ISIS, shifted temporarily the priority of the Obama’s administration from regime change to fight the terrorist group.

Contrastingly, however, while Obama distanced the U.S. from direct military engagement, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was heavily involved in the Syrian affair.

To the world’s surprise, Assad, who survived a decade- long devastating civil war, was dethroned in a stunning operation led primarily by a Salafist and Jihadist group, HTS, which includes foreign fighters.

The Precipice

Part of Assad’s removal seems to be covert action. This idea was highlighted in the recently held Antalya Diplomatic Forum, when Professor Jeffrey Sachs argued that the decision to overthrow Assad from power was taken by a Presidential Order from Obama in the spring of 2011 partly in fulfilment of a plan promoted by Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, of the six war’s in the region.

In December, HTS’s leader, Abu Mohamed al-Jolani, revealed his real name; Ahmed al-Sharaa. In January 2025, he was appointed as Syria’s interim president. Though he seeks to represent all Syrian sects and ethnicities, the war crimes committed against Assad’s Alawite community in March reveals a different story.

As Assad fell, Turkish- backed Syrian National Army (SNA) factions mounted an offensive against the Kurdish forces in Western Euphrates. Rojava’s landscape has ever since changed considerably. Militarily, the Kurds lost Manbij, in east Aleppo, and Tal Rifat, to the north, among other things. Politically, Kurdish political parties have embarked on unity talks, following years of dispute.

In March, brokered by the U.S., al-Sharaa and Mazlum Abdi, Commander- in- Chief of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) signed an eight- point agreement to integrate SDF’s military formations and all civil structures of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) into the news Syria state.

While the Biden administration lifted the $10 million bounty on al-Sharaa after giving assurances that ISIS would not be allowed to operate in Syria, following a meeting with Barbara Leaf, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, it remains for Trump to either recognize the Jihadist- turned- president or doing otherwise.

Trump holds a vision that the U.S. “should not be involved in Syria”. I think, Turkey will hold the key to Syria,” Trump said before taking office.