Syria

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham is exercising a significant degree of pragmatism and maneuvering, having transformed—following the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation—from an organization descended from Jabhat al-Nusra into a decisive, interventionist force, and then into a state after culminating its military campaign on December 18, 2024, with a pivotal historical event: the entry into Damascus, both as […]

There have been various models of political transitions around the world for decades, particularly in countries that have faced crises. These include: 1- Successful Transition through Agreement after Civil War: Lebanon between 1989-1990, Angola between 1991-2006, Mozambique in 1992, and Cambodia between 1992-1993. In the last three cases, the transition occurred through an agreement between […]

In the context of structurally troubled countries that are undergoing superficial political transformations without substantial changes in authoritarian structures, the Syrian model emerges as a glaring example of the contradiction between claims of technocracy and exclusionary authoritarian practices. Despite the official reiteration of concepts such as “civil state,” “efficiency,” and “institutional reconstruction,” the practical reality […]

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime contributed to strengthening Turkish aspirations within Syria. Whether the military presence is based on the principle of “de facto” or direct occupation under the pretext of protecting national security, the ability of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to seize control of most Syrian cities previously held by the deposed regime prompted […]

Syria today suffers from numerous afflictions, foremost among them the extreme poverty affecting the majority of Syrians, the collapse of basic services, lawlessness among militias, and their practices that amount to genocide. There are also violations of Syrian territory by neighboring countries, especially Israel, as well as conflicts arising from the post-Assad regime and the […]

There is no doubt that the color green has infiltrated the Syrian landscape following the fall of the Assad regime, emerging as a dominant symbol. Social media has been filled with trending slogans such as “green is expanding,” referring to the need for opposition factions and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to control Syrian territory. The […]

Massacre is defined here as “the intentional killing of a number of unarmed civilians, or the killing of a number of regular military/security forces, or militias, when they are not in a combat situation.” Massacres will be categorized according to the perpetrator(s). Massacres committed by the authority during the regimes of Hafez and Bashar al-Assad […]

In a television interview, Rami Abdel Rahman, the director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), revealed a shocking comment from the de facto authority in Damascus: “Let them unleash their feelings,” which served as a chilling justification for the “sectarian cleansing” massacres, framed as a means to release accumulated resentments. The escalating bloodshed, […]

The concept of the nation-state has not succeeded in Atatürk’s Turkey, Pahlavi’s Iran, the Baathist republics in Syria and Iraq, nor has the Islamic Republic of Iran managed to solve the issue of nationalities while maintaining the dominance of Persian nationalism within its regime. From these five experiences, confrontational rifts emerged among the four major […]

No term can adequately describe the situation in the coastal regions of Syria other than to classify it as a campaign of genocide against the Alawites. Regardless of the justifications for military actions in these areas, they represent, in legal, humanitarian, and political terms: a campaign of collective extermination arising from successive and ongoing massacres. […]

In a country like Syria, decentralization and identity are often perceived more as threats than opportunities, and more as sources of division, disruption, weakness, and infiltration than as elements of cohesion, order, strength, and resilience. These perceptions are intrinsic to the emergence of the modern state in Syria and the region following the First World […]

At the beginning of February, the Syrian people felt a glimmer of hope upon hearing that the Syrian transitional government intended to form a Syrian National Dialogue Committee as a fundamental step towards the democratization of Syria in the current context. This national dialogue is meant to serve as a gateway to redefining the state, […]

In his speech at the opening of the National Dialogue Conference in Damascus on February 25, 2025, Syria’s transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa focused on two topics that he views as major obstacles to the consolidation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) rule and its absorption of the Syrian state. Al-Sharaa asserted that Syria “cannot be divided” […]

The emergence of Hafez al-Assad’s dictatorship in 1970 was based on an international factor, namely the Soviet-American approval to remove a regime that rejected Resolution 242, which defined the contours and course of the Arab-Israeli conflict after the 1967 war. Additionally, there was a regional factor involving the new Egyptian president, Anwar Sadat, who proposed […]

A senior European official informed a Syrian opposition group that the reason former U.S. President Barack Obama refrained from launching a major military strike against the Syrian regime following the chemical attack on Eastern Ghouta in August 2013 was due to Tehran’s threat to withdraw from negotiations over its nuclear program. In the summer of […]

The Middle East is teetering between simultaneous threats and opportunities that were not present when Donald Trump first took office eight years ago. From an American perspective, the most serious threats include Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and its active engagement in an alliance with China and Russia. The best opportunities have arisen from Israel’s […]

The Middle East is perhaps one of the most identity-preoccupied regions in the world, with various dimensions and manifestations, particularly religious or sectarian identities that are often intertwined. The presence and impact of identity vary among groups, influenced by differing circumstances, contexts, lived experiences, and socio-economic and political conditions. It is more accurate to discuss […]

The discourse surrounding the future of Syria is revealing voices calling for war in the northeastern part of the country. Beyond the frenzy and hatred that characterize these voices, it is fair to say that they lack any understanding of the dangers associated with the idea of war, which does not serve the interests of […]

Most Syrians were surprised by the geopolitical significance of their country when the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime led to the demise of Iran’s regional axis, a fate not shared by Tehran’s forces in Gaza and Lebanon. Additionally, this collapse restored Russia’s status as a regional power after it gained global power status following its […]

The process of stabilizing Syria faces significant challenges from forces operating with conflicting and parallel agendas. On one hand, there is an effort to support the transitional administration led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), while on the other hand, HTS is being dragged into new battles that do not align with the interests of this […]

Syria has been plagued by “birth issues” or “state-building problems” since it formed as a state or proto-state in the modern sense following World War I (1914-1918). These problems emerge with every crisis the country experiences, whether large or small. It seems there is little possibility of overcoming them, as no one has attempted it […]

In Muhammad Haidar’s book “The Baath and the Great Apostasy” (1998 edition, publisher unspecified), we can read the following statement about the Baath Party Congress’s decision to remove Defense Minister Hafez al-Assad and Chief of Staff Mustafa Tlass from their positions: “I believe that General Salah Jadid was fully aware that the Defense Minister and […]

Few Syrian voices have denounced the European advice offered by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and her French colleague Jean-Yves Le Drian to the Syrian interim government. In fact, the denunciation has taken on a tone of defiance, with phrases such as “we don’t need foreign interference” and “we can solve our own problems without […]

Saudi Arabia is taking the lead among Arab states in engaging with the transitional government in Damascus, an effort perceived as aimed at securing an early foothold in the Syrian capital and preventing Qatar and Turkey from dominating the landscape. In this context, The Wall Street Journal reports on the competition for influence in Syria, […]

The active diplomatic efforts undertaken by the “caretaker” government suggest that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham has a clear program for shaping a new Syria after 54 years of rule by Bashar al-Assad and his father. The visits made by the ministers of foreign affairs and defense, as well as the head of intelligence, to Saudi Arabia […]

Syria as we knew it is over. This notion did not arise solely from the fall of the regime; in fact, it predates it. When I wrote in an article several years ago that Syria as we knew it no longer exists, both as a society and a state, and that the use of these […]

The Turkish government is racing against time to capitalize on the change that occurred in Syria on December 8, 2024, marked by the fall of the Syrian regime and the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions to power in Damascus. With the diminishing influence of Iran and Russia, and the evident divisions […]

The conflict in and over Syria appears to continually necessitate the invocation or fabrication of grand Stories. In this article, we will borrow the term “Story” from Yuval Noah Harari, who has skillfully employed it to discuss the significance of Stories in a global context. The world has always needed stories to be told—such as […]

A number of unoccupied border cities and towns in northern Syria are shrouded in darkness and fear as they face heavy bombardment, assaults on essential service infrastructure, and attempts of occupation. In Afrin, a brutal and organized genocide is taking place, standing as a testament to the triumph of hatred under the watchful eyes of […]

Israel and Turkey lack experience in managing conflict between the two states, as they are essentially allies and politically close countries. Their military and intelligence cooperation remains active and influential, having played a role in supplying Azerbaijan with weapons, which enabled it to secure victory in the recent Artsakh/Karabakh war. Additionally, intelligence cooperation continues, particularly […]