Analysis

There was no friendly neighbor for the Republic of Mustafa Kemal when it was born in 1923. It seemed that the British delegation’s head at the Lausanne Conference and Foreign Minister Lord Curzon intended this when he allowed, as the legal midwife of the new state, that the newborn would not resemble the offspring of […]

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham is exercising a significant degree of pragmatism and maneuvering, having transformed—following the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation—from an organization descended from Jabhat al-Nusra into a decisive, interventionist force, and then into a state after culminating its military campaign on December 18, 2024, with a pivotal historical event: the entry into Damascus, both as […]

In the second day of the arrival of the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation to Aleppo, the Autonomous Administration requested the entry of aid consisting of shipments of medicine and fuel for the besieged neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh. The Assad regime, in one of its weakest moments, responded by demanding financial sums to facilitate […]

There have been various models of political transitions around the world for decades, particularly in countries that have faced crises. These include: 1- Successful Transition through Agreement after Civil War: Lebanon between 1989-1990, Angola between 1991-2006, Mozambique in 1992, and Cambodia between 1992-1993. In the last three cases, the transition occurred through an agreement between […]

Months before former President Donald Trump imposed tariffs, the market valuation of Apple Inc. surpassed three trillion dollars, followed by Nvidia, a semiconductor manufacturer, achieving a market valuation exceeding three trillion as well. These newfound wealth valuations of companies far exceeded the empires based on oil and weaponry. This situation raises a question in modern […]

The issue of the ethnic origins of national leaders has drawn considerable attention since the establishment of Iraq under a colonial framework that placed Kurds and Arabs within a political entity that quickly revealed its fragile structure. This was particularly evident in the use of ethnic origin as a weapon to undermine opponents and obstruct […]

In the context of structurally troubled countries that are undergoing superficial political transformations without substantial changes in authoritarian structures, the Syrian model emerges as a glaring example of the contradiction between claims of technocracy and exclusionary authoritarian practices. Despite the official reiteration of concepts such as “civil state,” “efficiency,” and “institutional reconstruction,” the practical reality […]

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime contributed to strengthening Turkish aspirations within Syria. Whether the military presence is based on the principle of “de facto” or direct occupation under the pretext of protecting national security, the ability of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to seize control of most Syrian cities previously held by the deposed regime prompted […]

On the night of Sunday, March 16, 2025, Turkish army forces committed a massacre in the village of Barukh Butan in the Kobanê region by bombing the house of a Kurdish family. The bombing resulted in the deaths of nine family members, most of whom were children. This atrocity fits into a seemingly consistent policy […]

Syria today suffers from numerous afflictions, foremost among them the extreme poverty affecting the majority of Syrians, the collapse of basic services, lawlessness among militias, and their practices that amount to genocide. There are also violations of Syrian territory by neighboring countries, especially Israel, as well as conflicts arising from the post-Assad regime and the […]

There is no doubt that the color green has infiltrated the Syrian landscape following the fall of the Assad regime, emerging as a dominant symbol. Social media has been filled with trending slogans such as “green is expanding,” referring to the need for opposition factions and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to control Syrian territory. The […]

It is difficult to determine what constitutes a ‘root’ or ‘branch’ in the foundation and meaning of societies (or what are considered societies) in the region, as well as the ‘most influential factors’ or ‘favoring factors’ for their formation at a specific moment or within a particular geographical, human, social, economic, and political context. This […]

Massacre is defined here as “the intentional killing of a number of unarmed civilians, or the killing of a number of regular military/security forces, or militias, when they are not in a combat situation.” Massacres will be categorized according to the perpetrator(s). Massacres committed by the authority during the regimes of Hafez and Bashar al-Assad […]

As changes in West Kurdistan (Rojava) are developing at a fast pace following the fall of Bashar al-Assad, the Kurdish people’s struggle for identity in East Kurdistan (Rojhilat) continues in a different way. Pre-Newroz celebrations in various parts of East Kurdistan, from Maku to Îlam, as well as Kurdish-inhabited areas across Iran, such as Khorasan […]

In a television interview, Rami Abdel Rahman, the director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), revealed a shocking comment from the de facto authority in Damascus: “Let them unleash their feelings,” which served as a chilling justification for the “sectarian cleansing” massacres, framed as a means to release accumulated resentments. The escalating bloodshed, […]

It is challenging for the recent supporters of Ahmed al-Sharaa – those who were not part of his group or supporters before 8 December – to justify the issuance of the constitutional declaration, which entrenches and details the features of autocratic and fascistic rule. Proponents and drafters of the declaration may argue for its acceptance […]

The concept of the nation-state has not succeeded in Atatürk’s Turkey, Pahlavi’s Iran, the Baathist republics in Syria and Iraq, nor has the Islamic Republic of Iran managed to solve the issue of nationalities while maintaining the dominance of Persian nationalism within its regime. From these five experiences, confrontational rifts emerged among the four major […]

110 years ago, Anatolia, Kurdistan, and Armenia were not merely regions torn apart; they represented an open arena for the collapse of the concept of co-existence. What transpired then was not just a series of massacres, but a moment that marked a liberation from the goodness of history—a doomsday moment for neighboring peoples. The state […]

No term can adequately describe the situation in the coastal regions of Syria other than to classify it as a campaign of genocide against the Alawites. Regardless of the justifications for military actions in these areas, they represent, in legal, humanitarian, and political terms: a campaign of collective extermination arising from successive and ongoing massacres. […]

In a country like Syria, decentralization and identity are often perceived more as threats than opportunities, and more as sources of division, disruption, weakness, and infiltration than as elements of cohesion, order, strength, and resilience. These perceptions are intrinsic to the emergence of the modern state in Syria and the region following the First World […]

At the beginning of February, the Syrian people felt a glimmer of hope upon hearing that the Syrian transitional government intended to form a Syrian National Dialogue Committee as a fundamental step towards the democratization of Syria in the current context. This national dialogue is meant to serve as a gateway to redefining the state, […]

In his speech at the opening of the National Dialogue Conference in Damascus on February 25, 2025, Syria’s transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa focused on two topics that he views as major obstacles to the consolidation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) rule and its absorption of the Syrian state. Al-Sharaa asserted that Syria “cannot be divided” […]

The emergence of Hafez al-Assad’s dictatorship in 1970 was based on an international factor, namely the Soviet-American approval to remove a regime that rejected Resolution 242, which defined the contours and course of the Arab-Israeli conflict after the 1967 war. Additionally, there was a regional factor involving the new Egyptian president, Anwar Sadat, who proposed […]

The Sykes-Picot maps (1915-1916), created for the division of the Ottoman Empire, underwent a lengthy process of modifications, such that they no longer resembled their original forms. Among these changes, the “Upper Jazira” area became a focal point for boundary delimitation processes that persisted for nearly a decade following the entry of French forces into […]

A senior European official informed a Syrian opposition group that the reason former U.S. President Barack Obama refrained from launching a major military strike against the Syrian regime following the chemical attack on Eastern Ghouta in August 2013 was due to Tehran’s threat to withdraw from negotiations over its nuclear program. In the summer of […]

The recent decisive strikes by Israel, supported by the United States, against Iran and its proxies in the Middle East have significantly weakened Tehran’s regional influence, particularly as these strikes targeted many of Iran’s air defense capabilities, resulting in a state of strategic vulnerability for Iran. However, this weakening appears separate from Iran’s efforts to […]

Recent major changes and developments in the Middle East, particularly the collapse of the Syrian regime and its military and security apparatus, along with the Iranian withdrawal from Syria, have revitalized the hopes of ISIS. This situation has resulted in the disappearance of the military presence and structures of Iranian militias and local militias managed […]

The Middle East is teetering between simultaneous threats and opportunities that were not present when Donald Trump first took office eight years ago. From an American perspective, the most serious threats include Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and its active engagement in an alliance with China and Russia. The best opportunities have arisen from Israel’s […]

The Middle East is undergoing unprecedented political transformations, as the foundations of the traditional nation-state erode amidst a frantic struggle between competing governance models seeking to impose their future visions. With each new crisis, it becomes clear that the regional order established since the Sykes-Picot Agreement faces existential challenges that undermine its ability to survive. […]

There is arguably no parallel in the world to the Syrian Air Force pilot who targeted the civilian population of his own country with barrel bombs. This case is further complicated by the fact that these indiscriminate weapons, along with regular aerial bombardments, were heavily used in the eastern neighborhoods of Aleppo during the period […]