Turkish Development Plan for Kurds: A New Version of the “Reform of the East”?

The Turkish government has announced a $14 billion “regional development” plan, which aims to address the economic challenges facing the southeastern regions predominantly inhabited by Kurds. This initiative was introduced by Minister of Industry and Technology Fatih Kacir as part of a broader strategy to bridge the economic gap between this region and the rest of the country.

The Turkish government plans to allocate 496.2 billion Turkish liras (approximately $14.15 billion) to fund 198 projects by 2028 under the framework of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) Action Plan. This plan focuses on sustainable development and infrastructure improvements in southeastern provinces, as defined by the government, which also includes undisclosed security and demographic dimensions.

A Systematic Impoverishment Policy

The Kurdish region is facing significant economic challenges, with an average per capita income of $4,971 per year, markedly lower than the national average of $13,243. The Turkish government expects the implementation of these projects to increase per capita income by an additional 49,000 Turkish liras (approximately $1,400) by 2028.

The Turkish government’s announcement coincides with rising hopes for an agreement between Ankara and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). This optimism is attributed to the new political climate, including recent meetings between representatives of the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) and other Turkish parties in parliament, as well as discussions between officials from the Autonomous Administration in northern and eastern Syria and the new leadership in Damascus, which maintains close ties with Ankara.

The Turkish Development Plan encompasses a broad range of projects, including infrastructure improvements such as building new roads and upgrading existing ones to connect rural areas to urban centers, enhancing water and sanitation networks, developing electricity and communication systems in remote areas, and promoting agriculture and irrigation through sustainable irrigation projects to support farmers. The plan also aims to develop modern farming techniques to create job opportunities and boost agricultural production, alongside supporting education and healthcare by constructing new schools and hospitals and offering training programs to increase local skills.

Additionally, the plan includes economic and industrial development strategies, such as creating new industrial zones to attract investment and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises through favorable financing programs. It also seeks to enhance cultural and historical tourism in the region, coupled with environmental projects like reforestation, waste management improvements, and pollution reduction.

Since the establishment of the republic, these projects have followed a dual approach: “destructive development” that ultimately favors the Turkification of public life. Unfortunately, few of these initiatives, which began with the “Reform of the East” in 1925, have yielded neutral developmental returns.

Nevertheless, the Kurdish region has experienced significant agricultural growth in recent years, as evidenced by grain and legume export figures during the first five months of the previous year, reaching $1.4 billion with a 9.2% increase compared to the same timeframe in the previous year. Pasta constitutes a substantial portion of these exports, representing 31.6% of the total exports from the region, generating approximately $234 million. The Middle East accounts for 51.5% of these exports, while Africa comprises 24.1%.

Iraq continues to be the largest export market for the region, with exports to Iraq growing by 16.2% compared to the previous year. Exports from the Kurdish regions reached $11.7 billion in 2024, a significant increase of 2.7% from the previous year. The exports consist of a diverse range of products, including machine-made carpets, pastry products, plastics, fabrics, and more.

The Turkish government believes its development plan will elevate per capita income, improve the GDP of the region, and reduce unemployment rates by creating new job opportunities. The aim is to enhance education, health, and basic services, attract investors, and promote economic projects, thereby mitigating conflicts and armed confrontations in this impoverished environment.

With the collapse of the Baath regime after 61 years in power in Syria, exporters in the Kurdish regions anticipate a new surge in export figures. Ahmet Fikret Kilici, president of the Southeastern Anatolia Exporters Association (GAİB), remarked that developments in Syria present a promising scenario for both Turkey and the region’s residents, emphasizing that ending the conflict is crucial for enhancing security and opening new economic opportunities.

The initial goal for exports to Syria is set to exceed $1 billion, a figure expected to rise in coming years. The food sector is anticipated to witness increased activity with the normalization of relations, as noted by Celal Gadoglu, head of the Grain, Pulses, and Oil Products Exporters Association. He pointed out that the sector exported goods worth $3.1 billion in the first 11 months of the year, including $250 million to Syria, with projections suggesting this figure could approach $600 million as trade relations improve.

The Conflict’s Economic Burden on Turkey

PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan expressed his readiness to initiate peace efforts after a decade-long interruption in direct political contact. The meeting with Öcalan followed a call from Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), for the party to cease its activities, without outlining government steps to address the rights and cultural demands of Kurdish citizens.

Parliament members from the ruling People’s Alliance argue that the state of war has caused extensive damage to the country, particularly to the Kurds in the eastern and southeastern regions. They contend that “eliminating terrorism” will create a safer, more peaceful environment conducive to development for residents in these areas.

In contrast, Kurdish political figures and activists assert that chronic economic disparities in southeastern Turkey are part of a long-standing strategy by the Turkish state aiming to induce demographic changes by forcing young people to abandon their historical villages or compelling them to engage in government projects disguised as economic initiatives.

By significantly investing in infrastructure and community projects, Ankara seeks to bolster the local economy while simultaneously attempting to diminish the support bases for the PKK. Historically, the Turkish government has maintained a “Plan B”: if development is not part of peace, it serves as a component of war, with the two paths being easily interchangeable.

Experts believe that a peace agreement would lead to reductions in military spending, reallocating these resources towards developmental projects and enhancing educational and healthcare services in the region. Additionally, enhancing the relationship between the government and local communities through participatory development may increase the chances of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan succeeding in upcoming constitutional elections, a goal he shares with his partner in power, Bahçeli.

A report by researcher Izzet Akyol for the Institute for Democratic Progress indicates that Turkey has incurred losses of approximately $3 trillion due to its security-focused approach to the Kurdish issue over the past 40 years, illustrating the significant financial burden that ongoing conflict and military expenditures impose on Ankara.

For nearly a century since the founding of the Turkish Republic, successive governments have approached the Kurdish issue as a security concern, subsequently labeling it as terrorism amid the armed struggle that began in the 1980s, neglecting the democratic and human rights aspects. Over decades, the manipulation of security fears has stymied discussions regarding the Kurdish issue, framing it instead as a matter of paranoia rather than recognizing it as a legitimate concern.

The study contends that this perspective has obstructed potential solutions by disregarding fundamental political and social factors. By branding the PKK solely as a terrorist organization, the Turkish government has failed to tackle the root causes of the conflict, resulting in growing support for the PKK within Kurdish communities over time.

The report asserts that any military victories over the PKK would be short-lived without a political resolution. Should Ankara refuse to politically engage with the Kurds and their demands, the PKK or similar entities are likely to re-emerge, perpetuating a cycle of violence and instability.

The report argues that resolving the Kurdish issue could reposition Turkey as a regional investment hub. By fostering a more peaceful environment, Turkey could attract skilled individuals and investors, thus enhancing its economic prospects and potentially becoming a model of regional cooperation, particularly with neighboring countries like Iraq and Syria that also feature Kurdish populations.

Unity in Injustice and Poverty

In addition to the substantial material losses, Turkey’s failure to address the Kurdish issue has led to the erosion of international leverage and a drift towards a more militarized foreign policy, coupled with increased authoritarian tendencies, particularly amid global instability. The Turkish state’s hesitance to engage with the Kurdish issue arises from a broader fear of losing control over regional dynamics, especially in light of developments in neighboring countries like Iran and Iraq.

Conversely, a fair and just approach to this issue could foster interdependence among regional players, strengthening both stability and economic cooperation. The failure to address the Kurdish issue could hinder Turkey’s capability to effectively utilize all its resources, including water. The ongoing conflict will continue to inflict substantial human and material costs on Turkey, exacerbating poverty and fueling anti-state sentiments.

The study makes a strong case for the urgent need to address the Kurdish issue in Turkey, underscoring the immense economic costs associated with the current approach and highlighting the potential benefits of a political solution, not just for Turkey but for the entire region. This context has allowed the Erdogan government to link the renewed peace process in recent weeks with the announcement of $14 billion worth of development projects.

All of this illustrates the necessity of adopting a moral and mature perspective when addressing the Kurdish issue, especially since unresolved matters exacerbate polarization and conflicts within societies. According to a Dijlah Centre opinion poll, 85% of Turks expressed dissatisfaction with developments in Turkey—whether Turkish or Kurdish—reflecting a shared sense of injustice and poverty.