{"id":14454,"date":"2026-05-11T15:41:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T15:41:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nlka.net\/ku\/?p=14454"},"modified":"2026-05-11T15:41:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T15:41:15","slug":"1-208","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nlka.net\/ku\/1-208\/","title":{"rendered":"Nirxandinek der bar\u00ea nakokiya performansa abor\u00ee ya Tirkiyay\u00ea de"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dr.<\/strong> Muslim Ebd Talas<\/strong><\/p>\n

Made bi ereb\u00ee j\u00ee heye \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0629<\/a><\/p>\n

Naverok<\/strong><\/p>\n

Di v\u00ea anal\u00eez\u00ea de, xwezaya mezinb\u00fbna aboriya Tirkiyay\u00ea di deh sal\u00ean daw\u00ee de t\u00ea nirxandin \u00fb t\u00ea diyarkirin ku ev mezinb\u00fbn ne li ser hevsengiyeke abor\u00ee ya kevne\u015fop\u00ee ava b\u00fbye, l\u00ea li ser r\u00eavebirina berdewam a nehevsengiyan ava b\u00fbye. Ji sala 2016an ve, siyaset\u00ean abor\u00ee ber bi te\u015fw\u00eeqkirina daxwaza navxwey\u00ee ve \u00e7\u00fbn da ku mezinb\u00fbna abor\u00ee were parastin. Ev siyaset b\u00fb sedema \u00e7alakb\u00fbna aboriy\u00ea, l\u00ea di heman dem\u00ea de gir\u00eaday\u00eeb\u00fbna bi hilber\u00eena derve z\u00eadetir kir.<\/p>\n

Ev yek j\u00ee b\u00fb sedema firehb\u00fbna k\u00eamasiya balansiya bazirganiy\u00ea, ku di sala 2025an de gih\u00ee\u015ft n\u00eaz\u00ee 92 milyar dolar\u00ee. Ev k\u00eamas\u00ee bi r\u00eaya deyn\u00ean derve \u00fb herik\u00eena sermayey\u00ea hate f\u00eenansekirin. Li hember\u00ee v\u00ea yek\u00ea j\u00ee, rezerv \u00fb siyaseta dirav\u00ee hatin bikaran\u00een da ku fi\u015far\u00ean ku ji v\u00ea model\u00ea derketib\u00fbn, werin kontrolkirin.<\/p>\n

Ev anal\u00eez bi encamek\u00ea bidaw\u00ee dibe ku abor\u00eeya Tirkiyay\u00ea ji bo demeke kurt \u015fiyana ge\u015fep\u00eadaneke berdewam heye, l\u00ea ji bo demeke nav\u00een \u00fb dir\u00eajdem\u00ea de s\u00eenor\u00ean e\u015fkere li p\u00ea\u015f\u00eeya w\u00ea hene. Sedema v\u00ea yek\u00ea j\u00ee, berdewam\u00eeya k\u00eamasiya bazirganiy\u00ea \u00fb z\u00eadeb\u00fbna deynan e. Ji ber v\u00ea yek\u00ea, pirsgir\u00eak ne ten\u00ea di p\u00eakan\u00eena ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea de ye, l\u00ea di jin\u00fbve avakirina modela abor\u00ee de ye, da ku bibe modelek domdar \u00fb hevsengtir.<\/p>\n

P\u00ea\u015fgotin<\/strong><\/p>\n

Di demeke de ku fi\u015far li ser abor\u00eey\u00ean derketine hol\u00ea, ji ber bilindb\u00fbna r\u00eajey\u00ean fa\u00eez\u00ea li ser asta c\u00eehan\u00ea, tundb\u00fbna siyaset\u00ean dirav\u00ee \u00fb z\u00eadeb\u00fbna guher\u00een\u00ean jeopol\u00eet\u00eek, ev abor\u00ee bi astengiy\u00ean mezintir re r\u00fb bi r\u00fb dim\u00eenin di mijara parastina aramiya ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea de (IMF, 2023). L\u00ea Tirkiyay\u00ea wek\u00ee rew\u015feke taybet derdikeve hol\u00ea, ne ji ber ku ten\u00ea ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea p\u00eak t\u00eene, l\u00ea ji ber ku ev ge\u015fep\u00eadan di \u00e7ar\u00e7oveya nehevsengiy\u00ean bingeh\u00een \u00ean e\u015fkere de p\u00eak t\u00ea. Abor\u00eeya Tirkiyay\u00ea ne bi awayek\u00ee e\u015fkere di nav abor\u00eey\u00ean ku bi kr\u00eez\u00ean giran re r\u00fb bi r\u00fb ne de cih digire \u00fb ne j\u00ee modeleke aramiya abor\u00ee ya kevne\u015fop p\u00ea\u015fk\u00ea\u015f dike. Berevaj\u00ee v\u00ea yek\u00ea, ew modela taybet a ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea n\u00ee\u015fan dide ku li ser hevjiyana di navbera berfirehb\u00fbna abor\u00ee \u00fb fi\u015far\u00ean gi\u015ft\u00ee de ava dibe(Rodrik, 2008).<\/p>\n

Ji al\u00eeyek\u00ee ve, abor\u00eeya Tirkiyay\u00ea bi awayek\u00ee domdar ge\u015fep\u00eadan \u00fb \u00e7alak\u00eeya abor\u00ee ya berbi\u00e7av tomer dike, herwiha \u015fiyaneke nisb\u00ee heye ku \u015fok \u00fb aloz\u00eeyan bi taybet\u00ee ji ber berfirehkirina daxwaza navxwey\u00ee \u00fb destwerdan\u00ean dirav\u00ee r\u00ea didin, kontrol bike (TurkStat, 2026). Ji al\u00eeyek\u00ee din ve j\u00ee, nehevsengiy\u00ean bingeh\u00een \u00ean e\u015fkere t\u00ea de kom dibin, ku enflasyona bilind, k\u00eamasiya balans\u00eeya bazirganiy\u00ea ya domdar \u00fb gir\u00eaday\u00eeb\u00fbna z\u00eade bi f\u00eenansekirina derve di nav de ne (Trading Economics, 2026; CEIC Data, 2025). Ev hevjiyana di navbera ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea \u00fb nehevsengiy\u00ea de, ne ten\u00ea cudab\u00fbneke hejmar\u00ee ye, l\u00ea di heman dem\u00ea de modela taybet a abor\u00ee n\u00ee\u015fan dide.<\/p>\n

Daney\u00ean hey\u00ee n\u00ee\u015fan didin ku abor\u00eeya Tirkiyay\u00ea di sala 2025an de n\u00eaz\u00ee 3.6% ge\u015fe kiriye \u00fb z\u00eadetir\u00ee b\u00eest \u00e7aryek\u00ean li pey hev berfirehb\u00fbna abor\u00ee tomar kiriye. Ev yek j\u00ee n\u00ee\u015fan dide ku \u00e7alak\u00eeya abor\u00ee tev\u00ee fi\u015far\u00ean gi\u015ft\u00ee berdewam kiriye (TurkStat, 2026). L\u00ea ev performans di heman dem\u00ea de bi k\u00eamasiya balans\u00eeya bazirganiy\u00ea ya n\u00eaz\u00ee 92 milyar dolar\u00ee \u00fb z\u00eadeb\u00fbna deyn\u00ean derve ku gih\u00ee\u015ftiye z\u00eadetir\u00ee 527 milyar dolar\u00ee re t\u00eakildar e. Herwiha, fi\u015far\u00ean enflasyon\u00ea \u00fb guher\u00een\u00ean nirx\u00ea perey\u00ea netewey\u00ee j\u00ee berdewam in (Trading Economics, 2026; CEIC Data, 2025; IMF, 2024). Ev yek ne ten\u00ea cudab\u00fbneke hejmar\u00ee ye, l\u00ea di heman dem\u00ea de n\u00ee\u015fandana modelek\u00ee abor\u00ee y\u00ea taybet e.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Li vir\u00ea pirsgir\u00eaka bingeh\u00een derdikeve hol\u00ea: \u00c7awa abor\u00eeyek bi v\u00ea lez\u00ea ge\u015f bibe, di heman dem\u00ea de ku faktor\u00ean lawaz\u00eey\u00ea t\u00ea de her ku di\u00e7e z\u00eadetir dibin?<\/p>\n

Ev gotar ji hizireke bingeh\u00een dest p\u00ea dike ku ev nakok\u00ee ne jixwe ber e, l\u00ea bel\u00ea modeleke abor\u00ee ya serbixwe n\u00ee\u015fan dide ku dikare wek\u00ee ge\u015fep\u00eadana daxwaz-ajot\u00ee di hundir\u00ea qelsiyeke bir\u00eavebir\u00ee de were binavkirin. (Thirlwall, 1979). Li ser v\u00ea bingeh\u00ea, ev gotar bi \u015f\u00eerovekirina daney\u00ean abor\u00ee s\u00eenordar nabe, l\u00ea hewl dide rave bike ku ev model \u00e7awa kar dike. Ev yek j\u00ee bi \u015fopandina t\u00eakiliya di navbera daxwaza navxwey\u00ee, k\u00eamasiya balans\u00eeya derve, f\u00eenansekirin \u00fb siyaseta dirav\u00ee de p\u00eak t\u00ea, ku hem\u00fb wek\u00ee xelek\u00ean gir\u00eaday\u00ee hev di nava pergaleke yekgirt\u00ee de kar dikin (Hall, 1993; Khan, 2010).<\/p>\n

Em \u00e7awa dikarin rew\u015fa Tirk\u00eeyay\u00ea f\u00eam bikin?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pirsgir\u00eaka di nirxandina abor\u00eeya Tirkiyay\u00ea de ne di k\u00eamb\u00fbna daneyan an neb\u00fbna n\u00ee\u015fanderan de ye, l\u00ea di \u00e7ar\u00e7oveya ku em ji bo t\u00eagihi\u015ftina van daneyan bikar t\u00eenin de ye. N\u00eaz\u00eekat\u00eey\u00ean kevne\u015fop \u00ean abor\u00eeya gi\u015ft\u00ee bi gelemper\u00ee texm\u00een dikin ku t\u00eakiliyek aram di navbera am\u00fbr\u00ean siyaseta abor\u00ee \u00fb encam\u00ean wan de heye. Ev yek t\u00ea wateya ku bilindkirina r\u00eajeya fa\u00eez\u00ea div\u00ea enflasyon\u00ea s\u00eenordar bike, aramiya nirx\u00ea perey\u00ea netewey\u00ee hevsengiya derve xurt bike \u00fb disiplin\u0430 dirav\u00ee j\u00ee di encam\u00ea de bibe sedema aram\u00eeya abor\u00ee.<\/p>\n

L\u00ea tecrubeya Tirk\u00eeyay\u00ea di sal\u00ean daw\u00ee de n\u00ee\u015fan dide ku ev t\u00eakil\u00eey\u00ean abor\u00ee her dem bi w\u00ea h\u00easan\u00eey\u00ea naxebitin. Ge\u015fep\u00eadan tev\u00ee siyaset\u00ean dirav\u00ee y\u00ean ne kevne\u015fop di hin qonaxan de berdewam kir, enflasyon tev\u00ee hewildan\u00ean kontrolkirin\u00ea bilind b\u00fb \u00fb nirx\u00ea perey\u00ea netewey\u00ee j\u00ee tev\u00ee destwerdanan her di bin bandora guher\u00eenan de ma. Ev yek ne t\u00ea wateya ku r\u00eagez\u00ean abor\u00ee \u00ead\u00ee ne derbasdar in, l\u00ea bel\u00ea t\u00ea wateya ku \u015f\u00eerovekirina wan p\u00eadiv\u00ee bi nirxandina \u00e7ar\u00e7oveya firehtir heye ku ev p\u00eavajo di nava w\u00ea de dime\u015fe (Hall, 1993; Rodrik, 2008).<\/p>\n

Ji vir ve, p\u00eaw\u00eest dike ku em ji anal\u00eezkirina siyaseta yekane derbas\u00ee t\u00eagihi\u015ftina “modeleke ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea” ya gi\u015ft\u00ee, bibin. Yan\u00ee em bipirsin: \u00c7awa siyaset\u00ean dirav\u00ee, daxwaza navxwey\u00ee \u00fb f\u00eenansekirina derve di nav yek model\u00ea de bi hev re dixebitin? Herwiha, \u00e7awa ev ge\u015fep\u00eadan tev\u00ee heb\u00fbna nehevsengiyan t\u00ea parastin?<\/p>\n

L\u00eakol\u00een\u00ean akadem\u00eek \u00ean derbar\u00ea “S\u00eestema ge\u015fep\u00eadana siyas\u00ee”\u00e7ar\u00e7oveyeke guncav ji bo v\u00ee curey\u00ea anal\u00eez\u00ea p\u00ea\u015fk\u00ea\u015f dike. Ev n\u00eaz\u00eekat\u00ee li abor\u00eey\u00ea wek\u00ee encama lihevkirinek siyas\u00ee \u00fb saz\u00fbman\u00ee dinih\u00eare ku diyar dike \u00e7awa \u00e7avkan\u00ee \u00fb made t\u00ean belavkirin, k\u00ea ji ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea s\u00fbd werdigire \u00fb \u00e7awa n\u00eaz\u00ee aloz\u00eeyan dibe (Khan, 2010). Di nava v\u00ea d\u00eetin\u00ea de, siyaset\u00ean abor\u00ee ne ten\u00ea wek\u00ee biryar\u00ean tekn\u00eek\u00ee t\u00ean f\u00eamkirin, l\u00ea bel\u00ea wek\u00ee am\u00fbr\u00ean r\u00eavebirina hevsengiy\u00ean firehtir j\u00ee t\u00ean d\u00eetin.<\/p>\n

Di rew\u015fa Tirkiyay\u00ea de, ev \u00e7ar\u00e7ove di \u015f\u00eerovekirina ti\u015ft\u00ea ku wek\u00ee nakok\u00ee t\u00ea d\u00eetin de al\u00eekar e. Ge\u015fep\u00eadan tev\u00ee heb\u00fbna nehevsengiyan p\u00eak nay\u00ea, l\u00ea bel\u00ea bi r\u00eaya mekan\u00eezmay\u00ean r\u00eavebirin\u00ea t\u00ea parastin. Ev yek j\u00ee rave dike \u00e7awa abor\u00eeyek dikare di heman dem\u00ea de berfirehb\u00fbna abor\u00ee ya domdar, fi\u015far\u00ean enflasyon\u00ea \u00fb z\u00eadeb\u00fbna xwespartina f\u00eenansekirina derve bi hev re hilgire.<\/p>\n

\n

Li ser v\u00ee esas\u00ee j\u00ee, pirsa rast ne ev e: Gelo s\u00eeyaset\u00ean abor\u00ee li Tirkiyay\u00ea serkeft\u00ee ne an t\u00eak\u00e7\u00fby\u00ee ne? L\u00ea bel\u00ea pirsa rast ev e: Ev model \u00e7awa dixebite? Herwiha, k\u00eejan mekan\u00eezme\u00a0 dih\u00ealin ku berdewam bike, tev\u00ee aloz\u00eey\u00ean ku di nav xwe de dihew\u00eene?<\/p>\n

Daxwaz wek h\u00eaza p\u00ea\u015fbar \u00fb \u00e7avkaniya nehevsengiyan<\/strong><\/p>\n

Xwespartina li ser daxwaza navxwey\u00ee ne diyardeyeke n\u00fb di abor\u00eeya Tirkiyay\u00ea de ye, ji ber ku ev daxwaz di p\u00eavajoy\u00ean ber\u00ea de yek ji p\u00eakhatey\u00ean sereke y\u00ean ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea b\u00fb, taybet\u00ee di demek\u00ea de ku herik\u00eena sermayeya derve z\u00eade b\u00fb \u00fb kred\u00ee di deh sal\u00ean yekem \u00ean sedsala 21an de berfireh b\u00fb. Di w\u00ea p\u00eavajoy\u00ea de, ge\u015fep\u00eadan bi tevliheviyeke faktoran hate pi\u015ftgir\u00eekirin ku di nav de f\u00eenansekirina derve, veberh\u00eanan \u00fb berfirehb\u00fbna xerckirin\u00ea heb\u00fbn, di \u00e7ar\u00e7oveya atmosf\u00earek navdewlet\u00ee de ku bi k\u00eamb\u00fbna l\u00ea\u00e7\u00fbn\u00ean deynkirin\u00ea \u00fb z\u00eadeb\u00fbna dirav\u00ee dihat diyarkirin (IMF, 2018).<\/p>\n

L\u00ea bi k\u00eamb\u00fbna van \u015fert \u00fb mercan re, ev model h\u00ead\u00ee h\u00ead\u00ee hate guhartin. Ji n\u00eev\u00ea deh saliya bor\u00ee ve, li gel tundb\u00fbna \u015fert \u00fb merc\u00ean daray\u00ee y\u00ean c\u00eehan\u00ee \u00fb z\u00eadeb\u00fbna nezelalb\u00fbn\u00ea, \u00e7avkaniy\u00ean kevne\u015fop \u00ean ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea dest bi windakirin\u00ea ya h\u00eaza xwe kirin. Di v\u00ea \u00e7ar\u00e7ovey\u00ea de, daxwaza navxwey\u00ee wek\u00ee am\u00fbreke gir\u00eengtir ji bo pi\u015ftgir\u00eekirina \u00e7alak\u00eeya abor\u00ee derket hol\u00ea.<\/p>\n

L\u00ea guher\u00eena her\u00ee a\u015fkere pi\u015ft\u00ee sala 2016an p\u00eak hat, dema ku siyaset\u00ean abor\u00ee bi awayek\u00ee z\u00eadetir ber bi te\u015fw\u00eeqkirina daxwaza navxwey\u00ee ve \u00e7\u00fbn, ji ber ku ew wek\u00ee am\u00fbra bingeh\u00een a parastina ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea t\u00ea d\u00eetin. Ev guher\u00een ne hilbijartineke teor\u00eek b\u00fb, bi qas\u00ee ku bersiveke rasterast ji guher\u00eena \u015fert \u00fb merc\u00ean abor\u00ee re b\u00fb. Di v\u00ea \u00e7ar\u00e7ovey\u00ea de, herik\u00eena sermayeya derve ya bi l\u00ea\u00e7\u00fbna k\u00eam b\u00fb, fi\u015far\u00ean li ser nirx\u00ea dirav\u00ea netewey\u00ee z\u00eade b\u00fbn \u00fb asta metirsiy\u00ean abor\u00ee \u00fb siyas\u00ee j\u00ee bilind b\u00fb (Rodrik, 2008).<\/p>\n

Di v\u00ea \u00e7ar\u00e7ovey\u00ea de, te\u015fw\u00eeqkirina daxwaz\u00ea \u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bbi am\u00fbr\u00ean taybet\u00ee ve gir\u00eaday\u00ee ye, di ser\u00ee de berfirehkirina krediy\u00ea, z\u00eadeb\u00fbna l\u00ea\u00e7\u00fbn\u00ean gi\u015ft\u00ee \u00fb pi\u015ftgiriya ji bo sektor\u00ean enerjiy\u00ea y\u00ean wek\u00ee avakirin \u00fb binesaziy\u00ea. Ev yek bi ti\u015ft\u00ea ku w\u00eajeya aboriya siyas\u00ee ya Tirkiyay\u00ea n\u00ee\u015fan dide re li hev dike derbar\u00ea guhastina gav bi gav di avahiya abor\u00ee de ber bi sektora avakirin\u00ea ve li ser hesab\u00ea \u00e7\u00eakirin\u00ea, ku mezinb\u00fbna demkurt b\u00eay\u00ee ku bingeha hilber\u00een\u00ea bi t\u00eara xwe p\u00ea\u015f bixe z\u00eade dike (Parlar Dal, 2020).<\/p>\n

L\u00ea ev h\u00eaza ku di derve de xuya dike, di hundir\u00ea xwe de \u00e7avkaniyeke nehevsengiya bingeh\u00een vedi\u015f\u00eare. Ge\u015fep\u00eadana bi daxwaz, bi awayek\u00ee nepen\u00ee v\u00ea yek\u00ea ferz dike ku abor\u00ee bikaribe v\u00ea daxwaz\u00ea bi r\u00eaya berfirehb\u00fbna hilber\u00eena navxwey\u00ee bic\u00eeh b\u00eene. L\u00ea ev h\u00eepotez di rew\u015fa Tirkiyay\u00ea de bi temam\u00ee p\u00eak nay\u00ea, ji ber ku abor\u00eeya w\u00ea bi awayek\u00ee mezin xwe disp\u00eare dahat\u00fby\u00ean \u00a0enerjiy\u00ea, madey\u00ean xav \u00fb kel\u00fbpel\u00ean nav\u00een.<\/p>\n

Di vir de, t\u00eakiliya bingeh\u00een ku be\u015feke mezin ji d\u00eenam\u00eek\u00ean abor\u00eeya Tirkiyay\u00ea \u015f\u00eerove dike derdikeve hol\u00ea: Her ku daxwaza navxwey\u00ee z\u00eade dibe, p\u00eadiviya bi dahat\u00fbyan j\u00ee z\u00eade dibe. Bi gotineke din, daxwaza bilind bi temam\u00ee venaguher\u00eene berfirehb\u00fbna hilber\u00eena navxwey\u00ee, l\u00ea bel\u00ea be\u015feke mezin ji w\u00ea di forma dahatuyan de derdikeve derve. Ev yek j\u00ee dibe sedem ku ge\u015fep\u00eadan rasterast bi firehb\u00fbna k\u00eamasiya balansiya bazirgan\u00ee re were gir\u00eadan. Ev yek lihevhat\u00ee ye bi ti\u015ft\u00ea ku w\u00eajeya abor\u00ee wek\u00ee s\u00eenorkirina hevsengiya dravdan\u00ea bi nav dike (Thirlwall, 1979).<\/p>\n

Di encam\u00ea de, daxwaz di rew\u015fa Tirkiyay\u00ea de dibe \u015f\u00fbrek\u00ee dual\u00ee; Ji al\u00eeyek\u00ee ve ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea dipar\u00eaze, l\u00ea ji al\u00eey\u00ea din ve nehevsengiy\u00ean ku domdariya v\u00ea ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea s\u00eenordar dikin, jin\u00fbve hilber\u00eene.<\/p>\n

K\u00eamasiya balansiya bazirganiy\u00ea wek encamek bingeh\u00een a ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea<\/strong><\/p>\n

Di \u00e7ar\u00e7oveya z\u00eadeb\u00fbna daxwaza navxwey\u00ee ya ku ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea p\u00ea\u015fve dibe de, k\u00eamas\u00eeya balans\u00eeya bazirganiy\u00ea di abor\u00eeya Tirkiyay\u00ea de dibe encameke texm\u00eenkir\u00ee, ne derketineke ji r\u00ea. T\u00eakiliya di navbera herduyan de ne ji xwe ve ye, l\u00ea bel\u00ea nehevsengiyeke bingeh\u00een e di navbera z\u00eadeb\u00fbna daxwaz\u00ea \u00fb \u015fiyana abor\u00ee ya bicihan\u00eena w\u00ea bi r\u00eaya hilber\u00eena navxwey\u00ee (Thirlwall, 1979).<\/p>\n

Ji al\u00eey\u00ea dem\u00ea ve, k\u00eamasiya balansiya bazirganiy\u00ea li Tirkiyay\u00ea ne d\u00eeyardeyeke n\u00fb ye, \u00a0ji ber ku di p\u00eavajoy\u00ean ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea y\u00ean ber\u00ea de j\u00ee heb\u00fb, taybet\u00ee di deh sal\u00ean destp\u00eak\u00ea y\u00ean sedsala 21an de, ku di \u00e7ar\u00e7oveya herik\u00eena sermayeya derve ya xurt de dikar\u00ee bi awayek\u00ee nisb\u00ee were kontrolkirin (IMF, 2018). L\u00ea di deh sal\u00ean daw\u00ee de, ev k\u00eamas\u00ee k\u00fbrtir b\u00fbye, bi guher\u00eena bingeha modela ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea re.<\/p>\n

Daney\u00ean hey\u00ee n\u00ee\u015fan didin ku k\u00eamas\u00eeya balans\u00eeya bazirganiy\u00ea gih\u00ee\u015ftiye derdora 92 milyar dolar di sala 2025an de, bi berdewamkirina fi\u015far\u00ean abor\u00ee di sala 2026an de re (Trading Economics, 2026). L\u00ea gir\u00eengiya van hejmaran ne ten\u00ea di mezinahiya wan de ye, l\u00ea bel\u00ea di ti\u015ft\u00ea ku ew li ser cewher\u00ea ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea xwe n\u00ee\u015fan didin de ye.<\/p>\n

Daxwaza bilind di aboriya Tirkiyay\u00ea de ji xerckirin\u00ea w\u00eadetir di\u00e7e \u00fb veberh\u00eanan\u00ea j\u00ee dihew\u00eene, nemaze di sektor\u00ean wek\u00ee avah\u00eesaz\u00ee \u00fb binesaziy\u00ea de, ku bi giran\u00ee xwe disp\u00earin kel\u00fbpel\u00ean hawirdekir\u00ee. Ev yek bi l\u00eakol\u00een\u00ean v\u00ea dawiy\u00ea y\u00ean li ser aboriya Tirkiyay\u00ea re li hev dike ku n\u00ee\u015fan didin ku gir\u00eaday\u00eeb\u00fbna wan bi hawirdekirina nav\u00een berdewam e \u00fb veguher\u00eena p\u00ee\u015fesaziy\u00ea qels e, tev\u00ee r\u00eajey\u00ean mezinb\u00fbn\u00ea y\u00ean bilind (Parlar Dal, 2020).<\/p>\n

Di vir de t\u00eakil\u00eeyeke a\u015fkere ava dibe: Ge\u015fep\u00eadan daxwaz\u00ea \u00e7\u00eadike \u00fb daxwaz daht\u00fbyan j\u00ee z\u00eade dike \u00fb dahat\u00fb k\u00eamas\u00eeya balans\u00eey\u00ea berfireh dike.<\/p>\n

Ev mijar ne ten\u00ea gir\u00eaday\u00ee asta dahat\u00fbyan e, l\u00ea bel\u00ea digih\u00eaje bingeha wan j\u00ee. Be\u015fek mezin ji wan ji kel\u00fbpel\u00ean nav\u00een \u00fb sermayeya p\u00eaw\u00eest ji bo hilber\u00een\u00ea p\u00eak t\u00ea. Ev yek dih\u00eale ku bi\u00e7\u00fbkkirina w\u00ea b\u00eay\u00ee bandorkirina li ser ge\u015fedan\u00ea karek\u00ee zehmet be.<\/p>\n

Herwiha, faktor\u00ean derve v\u00ea rew\u015f\u00ea tevlihevtir dikin. Xwespartina Tirkiyay\u00ea ya mezin li ser an\u00een\u00ean enerjiy\u00ea dike ku hevsengiya w\u00ea ya bazirganiy\u00ea hestiyar be li beramber\u00ee guher\u00een\u00ean nirx\u00ean c\u00eehan\u00ee (World Bank, 2025). Di heman dem\u00ea de j\u00ee, an\u00eena z\u00ear aliyek\u00ee din l\u00ea z\u00eade dike ji v\u00ea k\u00eamasiya balansiya bazirganiy\u00ea, ji ber ku ew tevger\u00eenek abor\u00ee ya t\u00eakildar\u00ee parastina li dij\u00ee enflasyon \u00fb neguher\u00eena dirav\u00ee n\u00ee\u015fan dide (IMF, 2024).<\/p>\n

Di v\u00ea \u00e7ar\u00e7ovey\u00ea de, k\u00eamasiya balansiya bazirganiy\u00ea \u00eefadeyeke rasterast ya \u015f\u00eawaza ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea ya hey\u00ee ye, ne ten\u00ea k\u00eamasiyeke ku dikare bi siyaset\u00ean dem-kurt were \u00e7areserkirin, ji ber ku ew encameke bingeh\u00een a r\u00ea\u00e7\u00fbna abor\u00ee ye ku li ser daxwaz\u00ea radibe di \u00e7ar\u00e7oveya bingeheke hilber\u00een\u00ea ya ne temam de.<\/p>\n

Deyn\u00ea derve wek mekan\u00eezmeyeke f\u00eenans\u00ee ya parastin \u00fb berdewamkirina ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00eaEger k\u00eamasiya balansiya bazirganiy\u00ea encameke rasterast a ge\u015fep\u00eadana bi daxwaz\u00ea be, pirsa ku derdikeve hol\u00ea ev e: Ev k\u00eamas\u00ee \u00e7awa t\u00ea f\u00eenanskirin? Di v\u00ea \u00e7ar\u00e7ovey\u00ea de j\u00ee, deyn\u00ea derve ne wek faktor\u00ea duyem\u00een derdikeve hol\u00ea, l\u00ea bel\u00ea wek h\u00eamanek\u00ee bingeh\u00een di berdewamkirina v\u00ea \u015f\u00eawaza ge\u015fep\u00eadan\u00ea de cih digire.<\/p>\n

Di rew\u015fa Tirkiyay\u00ea de, deyn\u00ea derve ne ten\u00ea encama nehevsengiyan e, l\u00ea bel\u00ea be\u015fek\u00ee gir\u00eeng j\u00ea, \u015fert\u00ea prat\u00eek\u00ee ye ji bo berdewamkirina \u00e7alakiy\u00ea abor\u00ee ye. Di demek\u00ea de ku abor\u00ee dahatuyan t\u00eene b\u00eahtir ku hinarde bike, div\u00ea ev cudah\u00ee were f\u00eenanskirin. Ev f\u00eenanskirin j\u00ee bi awayek\u00ee mezin ji derve t\u00ea, \u00e7i bi r\u00eaya deynan an j\u00ee herik\u00eena sermayey\u00ea (IMF, 2023).<\/p>\n

Daney\u00ean hey\u00ee n\u00ee\u015fan didin ku deyn\u00ea derve y\u00ea Tirkiyay\u00ea di sala 2025an de gih\u00ee\u015ftiye 527 milyar dolar, ev yek j\u00ee asta xwespartina li ser f\u00eenanskirina derve n\u00ee\u015fan dide (CEIC Data, 2025). L\u00ea gir\u00eengiya v\u00ea hejmar\u00ea ne ten\u00ea di mezinahiya w\u00ea de ye, l\u00ea bel\u00ea di cewher\u00ea w\u00ea de ye. Be\u015fek mezin ji v\u00ea deyn\u00ea dikeve ser sektora taybet, di nav de bank \u00fb \u015f\u00eerketan. Ev yek j\u00ee dih\u00eale ku metirs\u00ee bi awayek\u00ee berfireh li ser hem\u00fb abor\u00ee belav bibin, ne ten\u00ea di darayay\u00ee gi\u015ft\u00ee de s\u00eenordar bibin.<\/p>\n

Be\u015fek gir\u00eeng ji v\u00ea deyn\u00ea j\u00ee demkurt e \u00fb t\u00ea texm\u00eenkirin ku deyn\u00ean ku di nav salek\u00ea de t\u00eane day\u00een ji 200 milyar dolar\u00ee z\u00eadetir in. Ev t\u00ea v\u00ea watey\u00ea ku abor\u00ee bi berdewam\u00ee bi ji n\u00fb ve f\u00eenansekirin\u00ea ve gir\u00eaday\u00ee ye, ne ten\u00ea bi deynkirina destp\u00eak\u00ea \u00fb ev yek w\u00ea dixe rew\u015fek gir\u00eaday\u00eeb\u00fbna domdar a bi tevger\u00ean bazar\u00ean daray\u00ee y\u00ean navnetewey\u00ee re (Banka C\u00eehan\u00ea, 2025).<\/p>\n

Li vir \u00e7erxa ku me dest bi \u015fopandin\u00ea kir temam dibe: Mezinb\u00fbn daxwaz\u00ea \u200b\u200bdiafir\u00eene, daxwaz k\u00eamasiy\u00ea berfireh dike, k\u00eamas\u00ee hewcey\u00ea f\u00eenansekirin\u00ea ye \u00fb f\u00eenansekirin bi r\u00eaya deyn\u00ea t\u00ea kirin.<\/p>\n

Bi v\u00ee away\u00ee, deyn ne encama ge\u015fb\u00fbn\u00ea ye, l\u00ea dibe be\u015fek ji avahiya w\u00ea. Ango, abor\u00ee ne tev\u00ee deyn\u00ea, l\u00ea bi r\u00eaya w\u00ea, an j\u00ee qet nebe bi pi\u015ftgiriya w\u00ea ya berdewam mezin dibe. L\u00eabel\u00ea, ev model di hundur\u00ea xwe de pileyeke bilind a lawaziy\u00ea hildigire. Gir\u00eaday\u00eeb\u00fbna aboriy\u00ea bi ji n\u00fb ve f\u00eenansekirin\u00ea t\u00ea v\u00ea watey\u00ea ku aramiya w\u00ea \u00ead\u00ee ne ten\u00ea bi performansa w\u00ea ya navxwey\u00ee ve gir\u00eaday\u00ee ye, l\u00ea di heman dem\u00ea de bi faktor\u00ean dervey\u00ee ve j\u00ee gir\u00eaday\u00ee ye, wek\u00ee asta l\u00eekv\u00eed\u00eeteya c\u00eehan\u00ee, r\u00eajey\u00ean fa\u00eez\u00ea y\u00ean navdewlet\u00ee \u00fb baweriya veberh\u00eaneran (Rodrik, 2008).<\/p>\n

Eger \u015fert \u00fb merc\u00ean daray\u00ee y\u00ean c\u00eehan\u00ee teng bibin an j\u00ee xwesteka veberh\u00eaneran ji bo r\u00eesk\u00ea k\u00eam bibe, f\u00eenansekirina v\u00ea deyn\u00ea dikare bihatir an dijwartir bibe. Di w\u00ea rew\u015f\u00ea de, deyn d\u00ea ji am\u00fbrek ji bo pi\u015ftgiriya mezinb\u00fbn\u00ea veguhere \u00e7avkaniyek zext\u00ea li ser aboriy\u00ea.<\/p>\n

Wek\u00ee din, rastiya ku be\u015fek mezin ji deyn\u00ea bi dirav\u00ean biyan\u00ee ye, hesasiyeta aboriy\u00ea li hember guher\u00een\u00ean r\u00eajeya dan\u00fbstandin\u00ea z\u00eade dike. Her ku l\u00eere dadikeve, l\u00ea\u00e7\u00fbna xizmetkirina deyn\u00ea z\u00eade dibe, zextek z\u00eade li ser \u015f\u00eerket \u00fb bankayan \u00e7\u00eadike \u00fb dibe ku bandor\u00ea li \u00e7alakiya abor\u00ee ya gi\u015ft\u00ee bike (IMF, 2024).<\/p>\n

Di v\u00ea \u00e7ar\u00e7ovey\u00ea de, aboriya Tirkiyay\u00ea li ser hevsengiyek nazik radiweste: Heya ku kapas\u00eeteya jin\u00fbvef\u00eenansekirin\u00ea were parastin, mezinb\u00fbn dikare berdewam bike, l\u00ea her t\u00eak\u00e7\u00fbna v\u00ea kapas\u00eetey\u00ea dikare qelsiya xwer\u00fb ya v\u00ea model\u00ea e\u015fkere bike.<\/p>\n

Ev argumana navend\u00ee ya gotar\u00ea xurt dike: deyn\u00ea derve ne ten\u00ea encama k\u00eamasiyan e, l\u00ea bel\u00ea mekan\u00eezmaya ku dih\u00eale ev celeb mezinb\u00fbn berdewam bike ye.<\/p>\n

Bergir\u00ee \u00fb aramiya pi\u015ftgir\u00eekir\u00ee<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ji ber k\u00eamb\u00fbna bazirganiy\u00ea ya berfireh \u00fb gir\u00eaday\u00eeb\u00fbna z\u00eade ya bi f\u00eenansmana dervey\u00ee ve, dibe ku aboriya Tirkiyay\u00ea amade be ku bi zextek gir\u00eeng li ser aramiya xwe ya dirav\u00ee re r\u00fb bi r\u00fb bim\u00eene. L\u00eabel\u00ea, ti\u015ft\u00ea balk\u00ea\u015f ev e ku ev zext her gav nabin kr\u00eez\u00ean vekir\u00ee \u00fb pirseke bingeh\u00een li ser mekan\u00eezmaya ku ev hevseng\u00ee t\u00ea parastin derdixe hol\u00ea.<\/p>\n

Li vir, rezerv\u00ean biyan\u00ee y\u00ean banka navend\u00ee di r\u00eavebirina aramiy\u00ea de roleke gir\u00eeng dil\u00eezin. Van rezervan di sal\u00ean daw\u00ee de z\u00eadeb\u00fbneke berbi\u00e7av d\u00eetine, carinan giha\u015ftine asta di navbera 170 milyar dolar \u00fb 200 milyar dolar\u00ee de (CBRT, 2025). Ev hejmar bandora tamponeke rehet \u00fb kapas\u00eeteya berxwedana li hember \u015fok\u00ean dervey\u00ee didin.<\/p>\n

L\u00eabel\u00ea, ev bandor \u015f\u00eerovekirineke baldar hewce dike. Di doza Tirkiyay\u00ea de, rezerv ne ten\u00ea heb\u00fbn\u00ean net \u00ean azad tems\u00eel dikin; be\u015fek ji wan ji deyn\u00ean demkurt p\u00eak t\u00ea, di nav de peyman\u00ean pevguhartin\u00ea bi bank\u00ean navend\u00ee y\u00ean din re. Ev t\u00ea v\u00ea watey\u00ea ku be\u015fek ji van rezervan bi erk\u00ean t\u00eakildar ve gir\u00eaday\u00ee ye (IMF, 2024).<\/p>\n

Ev rezerv ne ten\u00ea wek\u00ee toreke ewlehiy\u00ea t\u00eane bikaran\u00een, l\u00ea di heman dem\u00ea de bi awayek\u00ee \u00e7alak di r\u00eavebirina bazara dan\u00fbstandina biyan\u00ee de j\u00ee t\u00eane bikaran\u00een. Banka navend\u00ee pir caran destwerdan\u00ea dike da ku nearamiya l\u00eerey\u00ea s\u00eenordar bike, bi armanca ku astek aramiya dirav\u00ee bipar\u00eaze \u00fb p\u00ea\u015f\u00ee li tevger\u00ean t\u00fbj bigire ku dikarin baweriy\u00ea bi aboriy\u00ea xerab bikin (CBRT, 2025).<\/p>\n

Ev yek dibe sedema t\u00eagiha\u015ftinek cuda ya xwezaya aramiy\u00ea di aboriya Tirkiyay\u00ea de: ew ne aramiya ku ji hevsengiyeke xwezay\u00ee di navbera peydakirin \u00fb daxwaz\u00ea \u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bde derdikeve, l\u00ea bel\u00ea aramiyeke domdar e ku li ser bingeha destwerdana domdar \u00fb r\u00eavebirina zexta \u00e7alak e. Bi gotineke din, aramiya r\u00eajeya dan\u00fbstandin\u00ea an bazar\u00ean aram h\u00eaza avah\u00eesaziy\u00ea ya gi\u015ft\u00ee n\u00ee\u015fan nadin, l\u00ea bel\u00ea \u015fiyana dewlet\u00ea ya kontrolkirina nehevsengiyan \u00fb pa\u015fxistina bandor\u00ean wan n\u00ee\u015fan didin. Ev rave dike ka \u00e7awa abor\u00ee dikare tev\u00ee zext\u00ean gir\u00eeng \u00ean k\u00eamasiy\u00ea \u00fb deyn\u00ea berdewam bike.<\/p>\n

L\u00eabel\u00ea, ev cure \u00eest\u00eeqrar xwed\u00ee s\u00eenorkirin\u00ean e\u015fkere ye. Destwerdana domdar p\u00eaw\u00eestiya w\u00ea bi \u00e7avkaniyan heye \u00fb bi baweriya berdewam a bi \u015fiyana banka navend\u00ee ya parastina v\u00ea hevsengiy\u00ea ve gir\u00eaday\u00ee ye. Ger fi\u015far\u00ean dervey\u00ee z\u00eade bibin an j\u00ee herik\u00eena daray\u00ee k\u00eam bibe, parastina v\u00ea \u00eest\u00eeqrar\u00ea dikare bihatir an k\u00eamtir bibandor bibe (Banka C\u00eehan\u00ee, 2025).<\/p>\n

Wek\u00ee din, berdewamiya gir\u00eadana bi rezervan re dikare bibe sedema k\u00eamb\u00fbna wan a gav bi gav an j\u00ee gir\u00eaday\u00eeb\u00fbna wan a bi am\u00fbr\u00ean kurt-dem ji bo telaf\u00eekirina k\u00eamasiyan z\u00eade bibe, bi v\u00ee reng\u00ee qelsiy\u00ea girantir bike li \u015f\u00fbna ku k\u00eam bike.<\/p>\n

Di v\u00ea \u00e7ar\u00e7ovey\u00ea de, w\u00eaney\u00ea ku me dest p\u00ea kiriye ava bike temam e: Ge\u015fb\u00fbn k\u00eamasiyan \u00e7\u00eadike, k\u00eamas\u00ee hewcey\u00ea f\u00eenansekirin\u00ea ne, f\u00eenansekirin zextan diafir\u00eene \u00fb ev zext bi r\u00eaya rezervan t\u00eane kontrolkirin.<\/p>\n

Ji ber v\u00ea yek\u00ea, rezerv nehevsengiyan ji hol\u00ea ranakin, l\u00ea bel\u00ea be\u015fdar\u00ee bir\u00eavebirina wan \u00fb kontrolkirina bandor\u00ean wan dibin. Ev yek j\u00ee dike ku \u00eest\u00eeqrara di rew\u015fa Tirkiyay\u00ea de ne encama \u00e7areserkirina pirsgir\u00eakan be, l\u00ea encama bir\u00eavebirina wan a berdewam be.<\/p>\n

Siyaseta pereyan \u00fb \u00e7erx\u00ean siyas\u00ee<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pi\u015ft\u00ee l\u00eakol\u00eena t\u00eakiliya di navbera daxwaz, k\u00eamas\u00ee, deyn \u00fb rezervan de, f\u00eamkirina tevgera siyaseta pereyan li Tirkiyay\u00ea wek\u00ee bersivek tekn\u00eek\u00ee ya n\u00ee\u015faney\u00ean abor\u00ee y\u00ean kevne\u015fop\u00ee dijwar dibe. Guhartin\u00ean di r\u00eajey\u00ean fa\u00eez\u00ea de \u00fb guhertin\u00ean di navbera sivikkirin \u00fb tengkirin\u00ea de, bi tevah\u00ee bi mantiqa abor\u00ee nay\u00ean ravekirin; berevaj\u00ee v\u00ea, ew hewcey\u00ea ber\u00e7avgirtina \u00e7ar\u00e7oveya siyas\u00ee ya ku ev siyaset t\u00ea de dixebitin ye.<\/p>\n

Di sal\u00ean daw\u00ee de, siyaseta pereyan li Tirkiyay\u00ea guhertin\u00ean gir\u00eeng derbas kiriye. Di heyama beriya hilbijartin\u00ean 2023yan de, siyasetek pereyan a berfireh hate pejirandin, ku bi k\u00eamkirina r\u00eajey\u00ean fa\u00eez\u00ea tev\u00ee z\u00eadeb\u00fbna enflasyon\u00ea hate diyar kirin. Ji perspekt\u00eefek abor\u00ee ya kevne\u015fop\u00ee ve, ev n\u00eaz\u00eekat\u00ee xuya b\u00fb ku bi prens\u00eeba damezrand\u00ee re dijber e ku enflasyona bilind z\u00eadeb\u00fbna r\u00eajey\u00ean fa\u00eez\u00ea hewce dike.<\/p>\n

L\u00eabel\u00ea, dan\u00eena van siyasetan di \u00e7ar\u00e7oveya wan a berfirehtir de \u015f\u00eerovekirina wan diguher\u00eene. K\u00eamkirina r\u00eajey\u00ean fa\u00eez\u00ea be\u015fdar\u00ee te\u015fw\u00eeqkirina daxwaza navxwey\u00ee \u00fb pi\u015ftgir\u00eekirina \u00e7alakiya abor\u00ee b\u00fb, ku ev yek di ge\u015fb\u00fbna domdar de xuya b\u00fb. Bi gotineke din, siyaseta dirav\u00ee ne ten\u00ea wek\u00ee am\u00fbrek ji bo kontrolkirina enflasyon\u00ea, l\u00ea di heman dem\u00ea de wek\u00ee am\u00fbrek ji bo parastina ge\u015fb\u00fbn\u00ea di serdema hesas a abor\u00ee \u00fb siyas\u00ee de j\u00ee hate bikaran\u00een (IMF, 2024).<\/p>\n

L\u00eabel\u00ea, ev n\u00eaz\u00eekat\u00ee b\u00ea berd\u00eal nehat. R\u00eajey\u00ean enflasyon\u00ea giha\u015ftin ast\u00ean bilind, di sala 2024an de ji sed\u00ee 75 derbas b\u00fbn, pi\u015ft\u00ee ku di sala 2023yan de ji sed\u00ee 60 z\u00eadetir b\u00fbn, ku asta zext\u00ean ji v\u00ea celeb siyaset\u00ea derdikevin n\u00ee\u015fan dide (IMF, 2024). Zext\u00ean li ser r\u00eajeya dan\u00fbstandin\u00ea j\u00ee z\u00eade b\u00fbn, ku di \u00e7end caran de b\u00fb sedema k\u00eamb\u00fbna l\u00eerey\u00ea.<\/p>\n

Pi\u015ft\u00ee hilbijartinan, siyaseta dirav\u00ee bi gir\u00eeng\u00ee ber bi tengkirin\u00ea ve \u00e7\u00fb, r\u00eajey\u00ean fa\u00eez\u00ea giha\u015ftin ast\u00ean bilind \u00ean ji sed\u00ee 40 derbas b\u00fbn da ku hewl bidin enflasyon\u00ea kontrol bikin \u00fb hin ast\u00ean aramiya dirav\u00ee veger\u00eenin.<\/p>\n

Ev guhartin ji sivikkirina siyaseta dirav\u00ee bo tundkirina w\u00ea ne ten\u00ea sererastkirineke abor\u00ee n\u00ee\u015fan dide, l\u00ea bel\u00ea \u015f\u00eaweyek\u00ee berfirehtir \u00ea r\u00eaveberiya abor\u00ee n\u00ee\u015fan dide ku t\u00ea de daxwaz di hin dem\u00ean diyarkir\u00ee de t\u00ea te\u015fw\u00eeqkirin \u00fb d\u00fb re j\u00ee ji bo \u00e7areserkirina bandor\u00ean encam t\u00ea s\u00eenordarkirin. Ev yek bi ti\u015ft\u00ea ku w\u00eaje wek\u00ee t\u00eagiha \u00e7erx\u00ean abor\u00ee y\u00ean siyas\u00ee bi nav dike re li hev dike, ku t\u00ea de siyaset\u00ean abor\u00ee ji h\u00eala dema siyas\u00ee ve, nemaze di dem\u00ean hilbijartin\u00ea de, bandor dibin (Nordhaus, 1975; Alesina et al., 1997).<\/p>\n

Di doza Tirkiyay\u00ea de, ev hevgirtin bi awayek\u00ee zelal e\u015fkere ye. Parastina ge\u015fb\u00fbn\u00ea ber\u00ee hilbijartinan xwed\u00ee gir\u00eengiyeke taybet\u00ee ye, ji ber rola w\u00ea di pi\u015ftgiriya aramiya civak\u00ee \u00fb siyas\u00ee de. L\u00eabel\u00ea, pi\u015ft\u00ee hilbijartinan, hewcedariya \u00e7areserkirina nehevsengiy\u00ean ku di dema berfirehb\u00fbn\u00ea de kom b\u00fbne, nemaze di enflasyon \u00fb r\u00eajeya dan\u00fbstandin\u00ea de derdikeve hol\u00ea.<\/p>\n

Bi v\u00ee away\u00ee, siyaseta dirav\u00ee ne di valahiyek de dixebite, l\u00ea di nav hevsengiyek nazik de di navbera armanc\u00ean abor\u00ee, wek\u00ee aramiya bihay\u00ea \u00fb armanc\u00ean siyas\u00ee, wek\u00ee parastina ge\u015fb\u00fbn \u00fb aramiya civak\u00ee de dixebite. Di v\u00ea \u00e7ar\u00e7ovey\u00ea de, guher\u00een\u00ean di siyaseta dirav\u00ee de dibin be\u015fek ji mekan\u00eezmaya bir\u00eavebirina v\u00ea hevsengiy\u00ea \u00fb ne hewce ye ku n\u00ee\u015fana neb\u00fbna d\u00ees\u00eepl\u00een\u00ea bin.<\/p>\n

L\u00eabel\u00ea, ev \u015f\u00eawaz paradokseke e\u015fkere dihew\u00eene. Her \u00e7end berfirehb\u00fbna dirav\u00ee di demeke kurt de dibe al\u00eekar ku ge\u015fb\u00fbn pi\u015ftgir\u00ee bike, ew dibe sedema fi\u015far\u00ean enflasyon\u00ea \u00fb nehevsengiyan ku pa\u015f\u00ea siyaset\u00ean hi\u015fktir hewce dike. Bi gotineke din, siyaseta dirav\u00ee dibe be\u015fek ji \u00e7erxek domdar a te\u015fw\u00eeq\u00ea \u00fb d\u00fbv re j\u00ee rastkirin\u00ea.<\/p>\n

Li vir w\u00eaney\u00ea ku di tevahiya gotar\u00ea de hat\u00ee \u00e7\u00eakirin heye: Ge\u015fb\u00fbn ji h\u00eala daxwaz\u00ea \u200b\u200bve t\u00ea te\u015fw\u00eeq kirin \u00fb daxwaz nehevsengiyan diafir\u00eene. D\u00fbv re ev nehevseng\u00ee ji h\u00eala siyaseta dirav\u00ee ve t\u00eane kontrolkirin, pi\u015ft\u00ee ku ge\u015fb\u00fbn d\u00eesa t\u00ea te\u015fw\u00eeqkirin. Ji ber v\u00ea yek\u00ea, siyaseta dirav\u00ee di doza Tirkiyay\u00ea de ten\u00ea bi armanc\u00ean xwe y\u00ean diyarkir\u00ee nay\u00ea f\u00eamkirin, l\u00ea di heman dem\u00ea de bi rola w\u00ea di r\u00eavebirina v\u00ea \u00e7erx\u00ea de j\u00ee. Ew ne ten\u00ea am\u00fbrek ji bo kontrolkirina aboriy\u00ea ye, l\u00ea am\u00fbrek ji bo parastina berdewamiya modela ge\u015fb\u00fbn\u00ea bi xwe ye.<\/p>\n

K\u00ee ji v\u00ea ge\u015fb\u00fbn\u00ea s\u00fbd\u00ea digire?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Heta niha, anal\u00eez li ser away\u00ea kar\u00ea ge\u015fb\u00fbn\u00ea di aboriya Tirkiyay\u00ea de di war\u00ea t\u00eakiliya w\u00ea bi daxwaz, k\u00eamas\u00ee, deyn \u00fb rezervan de ye. L\u00eabel\u00ea, ev w\u00eane b\u00eay\u00ee ku pirseke bingeh\u00een a di derbar\u00ea belavkirina v\u00ea mezinb\u00fbn\u00ea de were \u00e7areserkirin ne temam dim\u00eene: K\u00ee j\u00ea s\u00fbd werdigire \u00fb k\u00ee l\u00ea\u00e7\u00fbn\u00ean w\u00ea hildigire?<\/p>\n

Mezinb\u00fbna abor\u00ee bi awayek\u00ee wekhev nay\u00ea belavkirin; berevaj\u00ee v\u00ea, ew \u015f\u00eawazek taybet\u00ee ya dabe\u015fkirina \u00e7avkan\u00ee \u00fb derfetan di navbera sektor \u00fb kom\u00ean civak\u00ee de n\u00ee\u015fan dide. Di rew\u015fa Tirkiyay\u00ea de, e\u015fkere ye ku mezinb\u00fbna bi daxwaz\u00ea \u200b\u200bve gir\u00eaday\u00ee belavkirinek newekhev a destkeftiyan diafir\u00eene.<\/p>\n

Sektor\u00ean ku rasterast bi te\u015fw\u00eeqkirina daxwaz\u00ea \u200b\u200bve gir\u00eaday\u00ee ne, bi taybet\u00ee sektora avakirin\u00ea, s\u00fbdmend\u00ean sereke ne. Ev sektor ajokerek sereke ya \u00e7alakiya abor\u00ee ye \u00fb ji berfirehb\u00fbna krediy\u00ea, xerc\u00ean gi\u015ft\u00ee \u00fb projey\u00ean mezin s\u00fbd werdigire. Bank j\u00ee ji v\u00ea \u015f\u00eaweya mezinb\u00fbn\u00ea s\u00fbd werdigirin, ji ber ku berfirehb\u00fbna krediy\u00ea rol \u00fb qezenc\u00ean wan di aboriy\u00ea de z\u00eade dike.<\/p>\n

Kompaniy\u00ean ku be\u015fdar\u00ee projey\u00ean hik\u00fbmet\u00ea \u00fb peyman\u00ean mezin dibin j\u00ee bi e\u015fkere s\u00fbd werdigirin, ji ber ku giha\u015ftina wan a f\u00eenanse \u00fb derfet\u00ean abor\u00ee mezintir e. Ev xwezaya t\u00eakiliya di navbera dewlet \u00fb sektora taybet de di v\u00ea model\u00ea de n\u00ee\u015fan dide (Bugra \u00fb Savaskan, 2014).<\/p>\n

Wek\u00ee din, be\u015f\u00ean \u00e7\u00eena nav\u00een ji berfirehb\u00fbna krediy\u00ea s\u00fbd werdigirin, nemaze di war\u00ean xerckirin \u00fb milk\u00ea de. Ev yek dibe sedema hestek \u00e7alakiya abor\u00ee ya berdewam, tewra di heb\u00fbna nehevsengiy\u00ean gi\u015ft\u00ee de j\u00ee.<\/p>\n

L\u00eabel\u00ea, ev mezinb\u00fbn bi l\u00ea\u00e7\u00fbnek t\u00ea. Enflasyona bilind, ku di sala 2024an de ji sed\u00ee 75 derbas b\u00fbye, h\u00eaza kir\u00een\u00ea k\u00eam dike, nemaze ji bo kes\u00ean ku dahata wan sab\u00eet an s\u00eenorkir\u00ee ye, ev t\u00ea v\u00ea watey\u00ea ku be\u015fek mezin ji civak\u00ea bi awayek\u00ee nerasterast bar\u00ea v\u00ea mezinb\u00fbn\u00ea hildigire (IMF, 2024).<\/p>\n

Nehevsengiy\u00ean erdn\u00eegar\u00ee j\u00ee hene. \u00c7alakiya abor\u00ee bi giran\u00ee li bajar\u00ean mezin \u00fb her\u00eam\u00ean abor\u00ee y\u00ean entegrekir\u00ee kom b\u00fbye, di heman dem\u00ea de dever\u00ean din, di nav de her\u00eam\u00ean bi piran\u00ee kurd, ji v\u00ea mezinb\u00fbn\u00ea k\u00eamtir s\u00fbd werdigirin, ku veberh\u00eanan \u00fb binesaziya wan nisbeten qelstir e (Banka C\u00eehan\u00ea, 2019).<\/p>\n

Ev nehevseng\u00ee ne ten\u00ea cudahiy\u00ean abor\u00ee, l\u00ea di heman dem\u00ea de xwezaya model\u00ea bi xwe j\u00ee n\u00ee\u015fan dide, ku meyla w\u00ea heye ku \u00e7avkaniyan ber bi sektor \u00fb her\u00eam\u00ean ku vegera bilez \u00e7\u00eadikin ve araste bike, li \u015f\u00fbna ku veberh\u00eanan\u00ea li p\u00ea\u015fkeftina demdir\u00eaj \u00fb hevseng bike.<\/p>\n

Di v\u00ea \u00e7ar\u00e7ovey\u00ea de, mezinb\u00fbn dibe be\u015fek ji hevsengiya siyas\u00ee \u00fb civak\u00ee. Ew ne ten\u00ea armanc dike ku hilber\u00een\u00ea z\u00eade bike, l\u00ea di heman dem\u00ea de armanc dike ku \u015f\u00eawazek taybet\u00ee ya belavkirina destkeftiyan bipar\u00eaze ku domdariya mezinb\u00fbn\u00ea misoger dike \u00fb b\u00ea\u00eest\u00eeqrariy\u00ea k\u00eam dike.<\/p>\n

Li vir paradoksek din heye: mezinb\u00fbn ne ten\u00ea h\u00eaza aboriy\u00ea n\u00ee\u015fan dide, l\u00ea di heman dem\u00ea de \u00e7awa destkeft\u00ee \u00fb windahiy\u00ean w\u00ea t\u00eane belavkirin j\u00ee. Ji ber v\u00ea yek\u00ea, mezinb\u00fbn li Tirkiyey\u00ea nikare ji v\u00ea p\u00eevana belavkirin\u00ea veqetand\u00ee were f\u00eam kirin, ji ber ku faktor\u00ean abor\u00ee, civak\u00ee \u00fb siyas\u00ee di \u015fekildana v\u00ea model\u00ea de bi hev ve gir\u00eaday\u00ee ne.<\/p>\n

Paradoksa performans\u00ea \u00fb s\u00eenor\u00ean berdewamiy\u00ea<\/strong><\/p>\n

Li gor\u00ee van xalan, aboriya Tirkiyay\u00ea ten\u00ea bi n\u00ee\u015faney\u00ean mezinb\u00fbn\u00ea nay\u00ea f\u00eamkirin \u00fb ne j\u00ee ten\u00ea bi r\u00eajeya nehevsengiy\u00ean w\u00ea dikare were nirxandin. Doza Tirkiyay\u00ea modelek tevlihevtir e\u015fkere dike, ku li ser bingeha hevjiyana mezinb\u00fbn \u00fb lawaziy\u00ea ye.<\/p>\n

Anal\u00eez\u00ea n\u00ee\u015fan daye ku mezinb\u00fbn li Tirkiyay\u00ea ne tev\u00ee nehevsengiyan, l\u00ea bi r\u00eaya r\u00eaveberiya wan t\u00ea bidestxistin. Daxwaza navxwey\u00ee ji bo ajotina \u00e7alakiya abor\u00ee t\u00ea bikaran\u00een, k\u00eamasiya bazirganiy\u00ea bi r\u00eaya herik\u00een\u00ean dervey\u00ee t\u00ea f\u00eenansekirin \u00fb deyn bi berdewam\u00ee t\u00ea vegerandin, di heman dem\u00ea de rezerv \u00fb siyaseta dirav\u00ee ji bo kontrolkirina zext\u00ean ku ji v\u00ea p\u00eavajoy\u00ea derdikevin t\u00eane bikaran\u00een.<\/p>\n

Ev dikare wek\u00ee paradoksa performans\u00ea were binavkirin: Aboriyek ku mezinb\u00fbna domdar bi dest dixe, l\u00ea v\u00ea yek\u00ea bi r\u00eaya mekan\u00eezmay\u00ean ku lawaziya w\u00ea di serdema nav\u00een de z\u00eade dikin dike.<\/p>\n

Her h\u00eamanek ku pi\u015ftgiriy\u00ea dide mezinb\u00fbn\u00ea, di hundir\u00ea xwe de fi\u015far\u00ean ku pa\u015f\u00ea wek\u00ee enflasyon, k\u00eamas\u00ee, an j\u00ee k\u00eamb\u00fbna nirxa dirav\u00ee xuya dibin, hildigire. L\u00eabel\u00ea, ev fi\u015far bi mekan\u00eezmay\u00ean din t\u00eane kontrol kirin, ku dih\u00eale mezinb\u00fbn b\u00eay\u00ee ku sedem\u00ean w\u00ea y\u00ean bingeh\u00een \u00e7areser bike berdewam bike.<\/p>\n

Ev yek bi n\u00eeqa\u015f\u00ean berfirehtir \u00ean di w\u00eajeya aboriya siyas\u00ee ya Tirkiyay\u00ea de re t\u00eakildar e, ku p\u00ea\u015fniyar dike ku mezinb\u00fbna domdar bi nehevsengiy\u00ean avah\u00eesaziy\u00ea y\u00ean domdar di hevsengiya dervey\u00ee \u00fb avahiya hilber\u00een\u00ea de re hevdem b\u00fbye \u00fb pirs\u00ean li ser domdariya v\u00ea model\u00ea derdixe hol\u00ea (Parlar Dal, 2020).<\/p>\n

Di demek kurt de, ev model xuya dike ku gengaz e, nemaze ji ber herik\u00eena sermayey\u00ea ya domdar \u00fb \u015fiyana dewlet\u00ea ya bir\u00eavebirina aramiy\u00ea. L\u00eabel\u00ea, di demek nav\u00een de, s\u00eenorkirin\u00ean w\u00ea b\u00eatir e\u015fkere dibin, bi z\u00eadeb\u00fbna deyn, k\u00eamasiy\u00ean domdar \u00fb z\u00eadeb\u00fbna gir\u00eaday\u00eeb\u00fbna bi f\u00eenansmana dervey\u00ee (IMF, 2023; Banka C\u00eehan\u00ee, 2025).<\/p>\n

Di v\u00ea \u00e7ar\u00e7ovey\u00ea de, dijwar\u00eeya rast\u00ee ne bidestxistina ge\u015fb\u00fbn\u00ea ye, l\u00ea jin\u00fbvep\u00eanasekirina w\u00ea ye. Ev t\u00ea wateya veguhastina ji modelek li ser bingeha te\u015fw\u00eeqkirina daxwaz\u00ea \u200b\u200b\u00fb bir\u00eavebirina nehevsengiyan ber bi modeleke ku kapas\u00eeteya hilber\u00een\u00ea z\u00eade dike \u00fb gir\u00eaday\u00eeb\u00fbna bi faktor\u00ean dervey\u00ee k\u00eam dike.<\/p>\n

Di dawiy\u00ea de, pirs ne ew e ku aboriya Tirkiyay\u00ea ge\u015f dibe an na, l\u00ea bel\u00ea xweza \u00fb s\u00eenor\u00ean w\u00ea ge\u015fb\u00fbn\u00ea ye. Ge\u015fb\u00fbn p\u00eakan e \u00fb dibe ku berdewam bike, l\u00ea dibe ku ne domdar be.<\/p>\n

\n

J\u00eader:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Alesina, A., Roubini, N., & Cohen, G. D. (1997). Political cycles and the macroeconomy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.<\/p>\n

\n

Bugra, A., & Savaskan, O. (2014). New capitalism in Turkey: The relationship between politics, religion and business. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.<\/p>\n

\n

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). (2025). Statistical data and reports. Ankara.<\/p>\n

\n

CEIC Data. (2025). Turkey external debt statistics.<\/p>\n

\n

Hall, P. A. (1993). Policy paradigms, social learning, and the state. Comparative Politics, 25(3), 275\u2013296.<\/p>\n

\n

International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2023). World economic outlook. Washington, DC.<\/p>\n

\n

International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2024). Turkey: Article IV consultation report. Washington, DC.<\/p>\n

\n

Khan, M. H. (2010). Political settlements and the governance of growth-enhancing institutions. SOAS Working Paper.<\/p>\n

\n

Nordhaus, W. D. (1975). The political business cycle. Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), 169\u2013190.<\/p>\n

\n

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2022). OECD economic surveys: Turkey. Paris.<\/p>\n

Parlar Dal, E. (Ed.). (2020). Turkey\u2019s political economy in the 21st century. Palgrave Macmillan.<\/p>\n

\n

Rodrik, D. (2008). The real exchange rate and economic growth. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2008(2), 365\u2013412.<\/p>\n

\n

Thirlwall, A. P. (1979). The balance of payments constraint as an explanation of international growth rate differences. Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 32(128), 45\u201353.<\/p>\n

\n

Trading Economics. (2026). Turkey trade balance and macroeconomic indicators.<\/p>\n

\n

Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). (2026). National accounts and trade data. Ankara.<\/p>\n

\n

World Bank. (2019). Turkey country economic memorandum. Washington, DC.<\/p>\n

\n

World Bank. (2025). Global economic prospects. Washington, DC.<\/p>\n

\n

\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dr. Muslim Ebd Talas Made bi ereb\u00ee j\u00ee heye \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0629 Naverok Di v\u00ea anal\u00eez\u00ea de, xwezaya mezinb\u00fbna aboriya Tirkiyay\u00ea di deh sal\u00ean daw\u00ee de t\u00ea nirxandin \u00fb t\u00ea diyarkirin ku ev mezinb\u00fbn ne li ser hevsengiyeke abor\u00ee ya kevne\u015fop\u00ee ava b\u00fbye, l\u00ea li ser r\u00eavebirina berdewam a nehevsengiyan ava b\u00fbye. Ji sala 2016an ve, siyaset\u00ean […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":14455,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":[],"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_override_counter":[],"jnews_post_split":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,22],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[191],"class_list":["post-14454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lekolin","category-manshet"],"yoast_head":"\nNirxandinek der bar\u00ea nakokiya performansa abor\u00ee ya Tirkiyay\u00ea de - Navenda Kurd\u00ee ya L\u00eakol\u00eenan<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nlka.net\/ku\/1-208\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nirxandinek der bar\u00ea nakokiya performansa abor\u00ee ya Tirkiyay\u00ea de - Navenda Kurd\u00ee ya L\u00eakol\u00eenan\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dr. Muslim Ebd Talas Made bi ereb\u00ee j\u00ee heye \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0629 Naverok Di v\u00ea anal\u00eez\u00ea de, xwezaya mezinb\u00fbna aboriya Tirkiyay\u00ea di deh sal\u00ean daw\u00ee de t\u00ea nirxandin \u00fb t\u00ea diyarkirin ku ev mezinb\u00fbn ne li ser hevsengiyeke abor\u00ee ya kevne\u015fop\u00ee ava b\u00fbye, l\u00ea li ser r\u00eavebirina berdewam a nehevsengiyan ava b\u00fbye. 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