As Republican President-elect Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term as President of the United States, Ankara is receiving mixed signals regarding the nature of its relationship with Washington. On one hand, Trump’s first term was generally positive for Ankara, as it managed to seize new territory in northern Syria in 2019, despite facing sanctions. On the other hand, Trump’s appointments raise concerns for Turkey, given that some of the individuals are known for their hardline stance in pressuring Ankara and advocating for the interests of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).<\/p>\n
An Attempt to Reset Relations<\/strong><\/p>\n The Turkish president has sought to reset strained relations with the United States by inviting the president-elect to visit Turkey, stating that Trump spoke very favorably about Turkey during a phone call.<\/p>\n Trump’s election victory this week was welcomed in Turkey, with some officials expressing cautious optimism about the prospects of new U.S. economic policies. Erdo\u011fan told<\/a><\/span> reporters on the plane returning from the European summit in Budapest that he hopes Trump will accept the invitation. An official from the AKP indicated that Ankara expects the Trump administration to be more flexible and understanding of Turkey’s needs.<\/p>\n Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden did not visit Turkey during his term. Additionally, Erdo\u011fan’s visit to the White House earlier this year did not materialize without any explanation, highlighting the frosty relations. Trump and Erdo\u011fan have met face-to-face about nine times in the past, in stark contrast to only two brief meetings with Biden.<\/p>\n During Biden’s presidency, communication was largely limited to foreign ministers, which represents a departure from the ‘strong relationship<\/a><\/span>‘ that Erdo\u011fan and Trump enjoyed.<\/p>\n A Misleading Relationship<\/strong><\/p>\n The relationship between Trump and Erdo\u011fan has been characterized as both good and misleading. It is considered good due to their history of frequent conversations, described as a form of understanding – such as phone calls and meetings – which provides an opportunity for the Turkish president to present his policies on issues he cares about and attempt to influence Trump.<\/p>\n According to Erdo\u011fan, he hopes that his invitation to Trump will enhance cooperation between Turkey and the United States, leading to a relationship that is \u201cdifferent from Trump’s previous term,\u201d during which disagreements over various issues prompted Washington to impose punitive tariffs that negatively impacted the Turkish economy. Erdo\u011fan added that Ankara’s cooperation with the Trump White House could also help resolve regional crises.<\/p>\n However, despite their closer personal relationship during Trump’s presidency from 2017 to 2021, tensions between Washington and Ankara increased due to disagreements over Washington’s partnership with the Syrian Democratic Forces and Ankara’s relations with Moscow.<\/p>\n No one can forget when Trump threatened to “destroy the Turkish economy” during his first term – a stark reminder of his unpredictability. His threat came in a letter sent to Erdo\u011fan in October 2019, as the Turkish armed forces were preparing for an incursion into northern Syria.<\/p>\n Trump wrote<\/a><\/span>: \u201cLet’s make a good deal! You don’t want to be responsible for slaughtering thousands of people, and I don’t want to be responsible for destroying the Turkish economy \u2013 and I will.\u201d<\/p>\n In July 2018, Trump caused a sharp decline in the Turkish lira when he warned of major sanctions on Turkey unless it released Andrew Brunson, an American pastor on trial for terrorism charges related to networks involved in the July 2016 coup attempt against Erdo\u011fan. Brunson was soon released.<\/p>\n However, during a phone call in 2019, Trump gave Erdo\u011fan the green light to launch a military offensive in northern Syria, allowing Ankara to seize territory in Serekaniye\/Ras al-Ayn and Tal Abyad. This move aimed to influence the alliance between the SDF and U.S. forces. When Washington imposed sanctions on Turkey for purchasing Russian S-400 air defense systems, Trump chose the lightest sanctions package available, which was interpreted as a rapprochement between Erdo\u011fan and Trump. However, at the same time, Trump imposed sanctions on Turkish ministers over the imprisonment of an American pastor in 2018.<\/p>\n Describing the relationship between Trump and Erdo\u011fan as challenging, leading many politicians in the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and senior bureaucrats in relevant Turkish ministries to argue that there has always been a misleading portrayal of Turkey’s relationship with Washington under the Trump administration. This can be partly attributed to Trump’s unpredictable nature and his tendency to make promises about deals that do not yield any progress or follow-through.<\/p>\n During Trump’s tenure, Turkish ministries consistently struggled to collaborate effectively with their U.S. counterparts due to frequent changes in U.S. officials. It remains uncertain whether this situation will change, and conversely, there could be greater volatility in the White House following Trump’s potential victory.<\/p>\n Unresolved Issues between Trump and Turkey<\/strong><\/p>\n Turkish-American relations are unlikely to undergo a radical change. Problems between Ankara and Washington have been entrenched for the past decade. This is primarily due to divergent national security priorities and interests, along with a number of unresolved issues that continue to represent crises between the U.S. administration and Turkey. Key issues include the fate of the Russian S-400 missile defense system in Turkey, U.S. support for the SDF, and Turkish relations with Greece, Iran, and Russia. The missile issue remains the most systemic problem in Turkish-American relations.<\/p>\n